EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLORES (05E)

[Ed Mahmoud]

-80ºC- not bad, not bad at all.


Back in Spanish times, Hacienda de la Nuestra Señora de los Dolores was the first significant cattle ranching operation in Texas. The King of Spain granted a large plot of land to Don José Vázquez Borrego in 1750. It is about 12 miles from San Ygnacio, TX.


I suspect Dolores is another name, in Catholic practice, for the Virgin Mary, "Our Lady of Sorrows".

[CrazyC83]

Where is the center, near the yellow ball?

[cycloneye]

18 UTC Best Track=40kts

EP, 05, 2009071518, , BEST, 0, 157N, 1161W, 40, 1003, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[Ed Mahmoud]

18 UTC Best Track=40kts

EP, 05, 2009071518, , BEST, 0, 157N, 1161W, 40, 1003, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

Not an expert, but just based on the very cold cloud tops, I would guess this is closer to the stronger end of the tropical storm spectrum than the weaker end.

[HURAKAN]

Not an expert, but just based on the very cold cloud tops, I would guess this is closer to the stronger end of the tropical storm spectrum than the weaker end.

Ed, the problem is that the center is on the SW corner of the convection.

[HURAKAN]

Looks even more exposed in this one.

[Cleveland Kent Evans]

-80ºC- not bad, not bad at all.
I suspect Dolores is another name, in Catholic practice, for the Virgin Mary, "Our Lady of Sorrows".

Your suspicions are correct.

Dolores is a Marian devotion name created from a title of the Virgin Mary, the same as Pilar, Consuelo, Amparo, Socorro, Mercedes, etc.

[cycloneye]

2 PM PDT Advisory=40kts

593
WTPZ45 KNHC 152033
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009
200 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2009

VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DOLORES' CIRCULATION CENTER IS
PARTIALLY DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY...AS
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE CLOUD PATTERN.
ALTHOUGH DOLORES HAS BEEN AFFECTED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...THE CONVECTIVE BAND HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED...AS REFLECTED BY THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT.

SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
DESPITE THE RATHER MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN.
AFTERWARD...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS DOLORES MOVES OVER
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...ULTIMATELY BEING REDUCED TO A
SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
DOLORES COULD BECOME A BIT STRONGER EARLY IN THE PERIOD THAN
INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IF THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD SOONER THAN INDICATED BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 310/12. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
MOVING WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC FROM
NORTHERN MEXICO. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A GRADUAL TURN MORE
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED...FOLLOWED BY A GENERALLY
WESTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE SHALLOW EASTERLY FLOW AS THE DOLORES
WEAKENS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF
THIS MORNING'S FORECAST AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 16.2N 116.6W 40 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 17.1N 118.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 18.4N 121.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 19.6N 124.0W 40 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 20.5N 127.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 21.5N 133.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 19/1800Z 22.0N 139.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 20/1800Z 22.0N 144.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

[KWT]

It is exposed but I seem to remember a fair few TS systems that look similatr with deep convection and recon would find 60-70mph winds in them, so it may be stronger then its being estimated at.

[HURAKAN]

Alberto 2006 and Ernesto 2002 comes to mind.

[MGC]

Shear is pretty bad. It will have to relax for Dolores for any significant intensification to occur.....MGC

[HURAKAN]

766
WTPZ35 KNHC 160231
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLORES ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009
800 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2009

...DOLORES STRENGTHENS...

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.4 WEST OR ABOUT 630
MILES...1015 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

DOLORES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE STORM
STARTS TO WEAKEN BY LATE TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER. EARLIER TODAY...A GUST TO 45 MPH...72 KM/HR...WAS
RECORDED AT CLARION ISLAND.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.1N 117.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


141
WTPZ45 KNHC 160232
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009
800 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2009

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION OF DOLORES
IS SOMEWHAT ELONGATED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION...
CONVECTION HAS BEEN ROTATING CYCLONICALLY FROM THE NORTH SIDE OF
DOLORES TO ITS CURRENT LOCATION IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS NOW CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE STORM...THE
OUTFLOW IS EXPANDING WESTWARD...AND OVERALL DOLORES IS DISPLAYING A
HEALTHIER SATELLITE SIGNATURE THAN EARLIER TODAY. SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM SAB/TAFB/CIMSS ARE ALL 45 KT...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE RAISED TO THAT VALUE. THERE IS A SHORT WINDOW
AVAILABLE FOR ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION SINCE THE STORM WILL BE
OVER SSTS LESS THAN 26C BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT TIME...A
SLOW WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS DOLORES MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
WATERS. THE WEAKENING COULD BE PROTRACTED DUE TO GENERALLY LIGHT
FORECAST ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHEAR IN ABOUT 2 TO 3 DAYS...
WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A TRANSITION OF THE SYSTEM TO A REMNANT
LOW AROUND THAT TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 310/12. THERE IS NO CHANGE
TO THE SHORT-TERM SYNOPTIC REASONING AS DOLORES IS BEING STEERED
PRIMARILY BY A LARGE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH COULD GRADUALLY FORCE THE
STORM ON MORE OF A WEST-NORTHWEST PATH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
HOWEVER...SOME MODELS...SUCH AS THE GFS/ECMWF/NOGAPS...ARE NOW
FORECASTING A WEAKER RIDGE AND LESS OF A WEST-NORTHWEST TURN. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BUT
STILL LIES SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...NOT TOO FAR FROM THE
GFDL/HWRF. AT LONGER RANGES...MOST OF THE MODELS NOW SUGGEST A
DEEP-LAYER WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 140W...WHICH
COULD ALLOW A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION. THE NHC FORECAST
HAS BEEN SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY NORTHEASTWARD BY 120 HR...BUT IS
STILL ON THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AT THAT
TIME.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 17.1N 117.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 18.2N 119.5W 50 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 19.4N 122.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 17/1200Z 20.6N 125.3W 40 KT
48HR VT 18/0000Z 21.5N 128.2W 35 KT
72HR VT 19/0000Z 23.0N 133.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 20/0000Z 24.0N 139.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 21/0000Z 25.5N 143.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

Not looking good.

[Cyclenall]

TS Dolores looked it's best at 14:00 UTC and was the best looking TS this year thus far. Right now it looks like a scoop of itself just got taken away.

[cycloneye]

MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009
200 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2009

THE LOW LEVEL-CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE ELONGATED FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST AND IN FACT...THE LATEST QUIKSCAT SHOWS A DISORGANIZED
SURFACE CIRCULATION WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO FIND EVEN USING THE
AMBIGUITIES. HOWEVER...THERE IS A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
BUT THE CONVECTION IS VANISHING AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE ESTIMATES
ARE ASSUMING THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS COLLOCATED WITH THE
MID-LEVEL AND THE T-NUMBERS ARE 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SAME AS
00 UTC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KNOTS BUT THIS COULD BE
GENEROUS GIVEN THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION. BECAUSE A PORTION
OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER COOLER WATER...NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST FOR TODAY. THEREAFTER...DOLORES IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER COOLER
WATERS AND THE SHEAR INCREASES.

BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER...THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ALSO UNCERTAIN. DOLORES APPEARS TO BE MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST A LITTLE BIT FASTER AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY
WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST AS DOLORES WEAKENS TO A REMNANT
LOW. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS KEEPING THE
CYCLONE OR THE LOW ON A NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...BUT THE
MODEL SPREAD IS QUITE LARGER THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOLLOWING THE
GFDL/HWRF PAIR AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0900Z 18.2N 119.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 19.5N 121.2W 45 KT
24HR VT 17/0600Z 21.0N 124.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 17/1800Z 22.0N 127.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 18/0600Z 23.0N 130.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 19/0600Z 24.5N 134.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 20/0600Z 25.5N 138.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 21/0600Z 26.0N 142.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[KWT]

This could weaken quite quckly given how poor the convection is of this system right now.

[cycloneye]

8 AM PDT advisory=35kts

570
WTPZ45 KNHC 161434
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009
800 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2009

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH OVER THE CENTER OF DOLORES AS THE
CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER COLDER WATERS. DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS
FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 1200 UTC WERE 2.0. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
DECREASED TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...BUT IT IS ASSUMED
TO BE SOUTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER...WHICH STILL APPEARED TO BE
WELL-DEFINED IN A TRMM PASS AROUND 0800 UTC. THE INITIAL MOTION
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/16. THE TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SHOWING A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
TURNING MORE TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
CYCLONE BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW. THIS TRACK IS BETWEEN THE
HWRF AND GFDL AND SOUTH OF MOST OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS...
WHICH TAKE A DEEPER CYCLONE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING ALONG 140W.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON
INTENSITY CONSENSUS. DOLORES COULD DISSIPATE EVEN SOONER THAN SHOWN
HERE...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL...IF CONVECTION DOES NOT
REFORM NEAR THE CENTER LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1500Z 18.9N 120.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 20.1N 122.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 21.4N 125.6W 30 KT
36HR VT 18/0000Z 22.3N 128.3W 25 KT
48HR VT 18/1200Z 23.2N 130.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 19/1200Z 24.5N 135.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[HURAKAN]

Adiós Dolores.

[Cyclone1]

My version of the "It's Dead, Jim" macro.

[HURAKAN]

"dead and gone"