EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLORES (05E)

[HURAKAN]

18z

EP, 05, 2009071618, , BEST, 0, 190N, 1219W, 30, 1005, TD

[cycloneye]

Downgraded to Tropical Depression

021
WTPZ45 KNHC 162034
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009
200 PM PDT THU JUL 16 2009

DOLORES HAS BEEN VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION SINCE AROUND 1330 UTC...AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE
CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT IF SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT RE-FIRE...WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY NOW THAT
THE CYCLONE IS OVER WATERS OF AROUND 24C.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/16...AND THE TRACK REASONING
REMAINS UNCHANGED. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE SPINS DOWN. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
INITIAL LOCATION AND MOTION.

MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW DISSIPATING BETWEEN 48 AND
72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. HOWEVER...
THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE SOONER...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS
MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/2100Z 19.3N 122.7W 25 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 20.4N 125.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 17/1800Z 21.4N 128.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 18/0600Z 22.3N 130.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 18/1800Z 22.9N 133.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

Last Advisory

717
WTPZ45 KNHC 170232
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009
800 PM PDT THU JUL 16 2009

THERE ARE ONLY SOME PUNY CELLS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF
DOLORES. WITH WATER TEMPERATURES DECREASING BELOW 24C...NO
SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AND THIS
SYSTEM IS BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW AT THIS TIME. A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OF DOLORES IS FORECAST UNTIL DISSIPATION...
WHICH MOST MODELS SHOW HAPPENING IN ABOUT 48 TO 60 HOURS.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON DOLORES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0300Z 19.6N 124.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
12HR VT 17/1200Z 20.4N 126.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 18/0000Z 21.4N 129.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 18/1200Z 22.3N 131.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 19/0000Z 23.5N 134.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE