Development with Tropical Wave in MDR?

[Gustywind]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/cgi-bin/latest.cgi?ir-e
The wave 30west is firing,with better rotation,apparently!

Hi my friend, are you OK?
Yeah you're right a bit firing up, maybe a window of opportunity is maybe trying to come?!
See you soon we have something becoming decent to observe, wait and see!

[cycloneye]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/cgi-bin/latest.cgi?ir-e
The wave 30west is firing,with better rotation,apparently!

Hi my friend, are you OK?
Yeah you're right a bit firing up, maybe a window of opportunity is maybe trying to come?!
See you soon we have something becoming decent to observe, wait and see!

To all the Eastern Caribbean members,we have a thread only for us at Weather Attic forum to stop by and post all of what goes on in the islands weatherwise in a daily basis and it will be useful in the next few days as it looks like we will endure a wet period.So stop by our tent thread and tell the world what is going on in your area.

Link to our tent thread at Weather Attic forum.

viewtopic.php?f=20&t=85676&hilit=&p=1892914#p1892914

[cycloneye]

Wave 2 is looking better tonight,and wave 3 has a nitid circulation.Will both survive the long Atlantic treck?

[KWT]

Got to admit the the 2nd wave doesn't look all that bad right now, if it can hold for a little while longer we may well get an invest. Also the 3rd wave has got a decent looking circulation, not sure what level its at mind you.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just glancing at the ever popular CIMSS shear map, if wave #2 can stay at low latitude, it can go several days before it hits the >20 knot shear full on, maybe enough time to develop an anticyclone aloft that partially deflects the shear. If it drifts much North, it is less than 2 days from bad shear.

It looks to be moving WNW, which means it looks good now, but may hit the wall soon.


Lead wave is flaring up because it is in the full-bore shear zone, best I can tell in my amateur and unofficial status as an interested observer.

[cycloneye]

8:00 PM Tropical Weather Outlook,Code Yellow

This is for wave 2.

880
ABNT20 KNHC 162338
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF
ANY...IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT
15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[KWT]

Yep Ed it will be heading towards higher shear, I don't expect any development from it because of this factor, though can't be totally ruled out. I think code yellow is fair enough and I think it will get an invest, if only to have a good chance for a trial run on a system with only a low chance of doing anything.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 162357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 18N MOVING W AT 15 KT. RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION E OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N31W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 29W-31W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 17N MOVING W AT 13 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE MAXIMUM IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT
FROM CIMSS. THE PRESENCE OF DRY LOW/MID-LEVEL SAHARAN AIR IS
LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 250 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 10N-18N.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N17W 10N30W 11N33W 10N40W
12N49W 9N62W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 20W-31W.
$$
FORMOSA

[Aric Dunn]

Yep Ed it will be heading towards higher shear, I don't expect any development from it because of this factor, though can't be totally ruled out. I think code yellow is fair enough and I think it will get an invest, if only to have a good chance for a trial run on a system with only a low chance of doing anything.

a lot can happen in 2 to 3 days till its reaches any substantial shear..

[Aric Dunn]

What going to be good.. if the SSD (Noaa) site puts a floater on it tomorrow

[cycloneye]

If it persists tonight going into tommorow,I would not be surprised if invest 95L is up.

[Aric Dunn]

If it persists tonight going into tommorow,I would not be surprised if invest 95L is up.

yeah possibly tomorrow afternoon sound about right

there is another bit convection starting to fire with it.. lets see if its at least similar to the other earlier today.

[KWT]

Certainly it could do something Aric, but I still think given the time of year I can't bring myself to go any higher then low chance. Certainly doesn't look bad at the moment though and if it holds up I wouldn't be surprised if it does get an invest.

Remember in the E.Atlantic the NHC can be very conservative with these systems, heck we've had times where a system has obviously been at TD/TS status yet its not been upgraded because its about to hit less favorable conditions.

[Aric Dunn]

Certainly it could do something Aric, but I still think given the time of year I can't bring myself to go any higher then low chance. Certainly doesn't look bad at the moment though and if it holds up I wouldn't be surprised if it does get an invest.

Remember in the E.Atlantic the NHC can be very conservative with these systems, heck we've had times where a system has obviously been at TD/TS status yet its not been upgraded because its about to hit less favorable conditions.

I agree .. in principle .. but the present active period cannot be measured against the rest of the hurricane climatology at least not accurately, because since 1995 the frequency of july storms in the MDR have been well above what is considered normal for the climatology before 95. So applying the data from this active cycle, it is not out of the ordinary to see development that far east this early in the season ( only two weeks by the way) and besides climatology is not a weather inhibitor only statistics if the conditions are in place then it will form regardless of what climatology says and yes the NHC is very conservative unless they have ship data or buoy data, typically with just satellite data they hold back somewhat.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

Wave 3 has a good circulation but not plenty of convection.

To all the Eastern Caribbean members,we have a thread only for us at Weather Attic forum to stop there and post all of what goes on in the islands weatherwise in a daily basis and it will be useful in the next few days as it looks like we will endure a wet period.

Link to Eastern Caribbean thread at Weather Attic forum.

viewtopic.php?f=20&t=85676&hilit=&p=1892791#p1892791

[Gustywind]

:uarrow: Wave 3 has a good circulation but not plenty of convection.

To all the Eastern Caribbean members,we have a thread only for us at Weather Attic forum to stop there and post all of what goes on in the islands weatherwise in a daily basis and it will be useful in the next few days as it looks like we will endure a wet period.

Link to Eastern Caribbean thread at Weather Attic forum.

viewtopic.php?f=20&t=85676&hilit=&p=1892791#p1892791

Tkanks Cycloneye for the info, tkink that you have see my numerous replies on this thread ?testifying my presence on this nice thread

[Gustywind]

In case of invest tommorow...: here is a link of NRL navy site for those who have forget it http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[boca]

Well for the first time this season we have 3 waves to look at. The second one has my interest with the slight rotation and convection. I wonder if the shear is going to eat these waves up once they get passed 50 or 55w.

[Annie Oakley]

In case of invest tommorow...: here is a link of NRL navy site for those who have forget it http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

And this,my friend, is why this is the best weather site in the galaxy! Thank you!