SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[HouTXmetro]

No rain here in the Medical Center!

[southerngale]

I just saw the new drought map put out today... ouch. My area has been upgraded from abnormally dry to moderate. I know that's not as bad as what some Texans are facing, but that's the worst it's been here in years. And Harris county is in severe drought... is that the same as last week or was last week moderate?

The forecast looks better than it has in a while. I don't see any drought busters, but at least we have a slight chance of rain each day. And the highs are *only* low to mid-90's. Maybe we'll get a system that will bring widespread rain, but in the meantime, hopefully we'll get a little relief with lower temps and at least a chance of rain. Cross your fingers, everyone.

[vbhoutex]

Beautiful TCU, dark base, just starting to go for the full monty and form an anvil, as seen looking Southward from my window in the Galleria area.


It is a small anvil so far, but it has mammatus looking downward pouches already. Yowza!

Come on North!!!

Didn't make it to my house!!! It did rain about a mile to the East of here though.

With 103ºf yesterday and 101ºf today here at the house I am still waiting for the promised cool down and rain!
Last week the far western part of Harris County was extreme drought with the rest severe. Now it is at least half extreme with the rest severe.

[srainhoutx]

Beautiful TCU, dark base, just starting to go for the full monty and form an anvil, as seen looking Southward from my window in the Galleria area.


It is a small anvil so far, but it has mammatus looking downward pouches already. Yowza!

Come on North!!!

Didn't make it to my house!!! It did rain about a mile to the East of here though.

With 103ºf yesterday and 101ºf today here at the house I am still waiting for the promised cool down and rain!
Last week the far western part of Harris County was severe drought with the rest moderate.

Borderline extreme drought in NW Harris County. The plants/grass are dying.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Unless it backbuilds, these look to just miss HOU metro to the East



These look to miss wide right



Well, who knows what boundaries and sea breezes and high precipitable water values will bring tomorrow.

[Ed Mahmoud]

HGX update

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1003 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM TONIGHT WILL BE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW SQUALL LINE...MCS...DROPPING SEWD
OVER NE TEXAS AND THROUGH LOUISIANA...WITH FAIRLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS OBSERVED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE. THICKNESS PATTERN SUGGESTS
SOME TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH POSSIBLE. AT THE SAME TIME...WOULD NOT
EXPECT IT WILL BUILD FARTHER WEST GIVEN STABILIZATION OF
AIRMASS...AND LACK OF ANY LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING IT THAT WAY. BASED
ON THIS POSSIBLE TURN...AND LACK OF DEVELOPMENT WESTWARD...THINK
IT SHOULD ONLY GRAZE FAR NE COUNTIES POTENTIALLY WITH ANY TSTRM
ACTIVITY. BASED ON LOW LEVEL JET AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION
PATTERNS...WOULD THINK SUPPORT FOR THIS MCS SHOULD BE ON THE
WANE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT...IF ANYWHERE...UPSTREAM
OVER N TEXAS. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THAT PANS OUT...POSSIBLY
PROVIDING RAIN CHANCES FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES FRI MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE GULF. ADJUSTED POPS UP FAR NE COUNTIES AND
DOWNWARD ELSEWHERE BASED ON ABOVE REASONING. ALSO MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO SKY CONDITION BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS.

[jasons2k]

Lots of outflow boundries to our north about to merge:


Shot at 2009-07-16

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff Lindner...

Upper air pattern change is about complete with upper high now centered well to our west and digging upper trough over the central and eastern US.

Area now falls under NNW flow aloft and within the eastern “ring of fire” of the ridge to our west. Energy riding the ridge will be responsible for numerous MCS events as currently approaching SE TX right now from the north. Hard to time short waves will fire off storm complexes every 8-14 hours over OK and N TX with the upper level steering flow driving the events into our area.

Main question this morning is what to do with incoming outflow boundary/old MCS now through CLL. Radar shows numerous thunderstorms developing along this boundary from N of Huntsville to just S of CLL moving SSE at 15mph. Models did not pick up on this outflow nor the MCS currently ongoing just NE of the area. Feel there is little to impede thunderstorms from developing this morning as the outflow boundary sags deeper into the area. Bigger question is how does this affect the expected afternoon/evening convection. Models are very aggressive in developing widespread thunderstorms coming at the area from the NE and sweeping all the way to Matagorda Bay between 300pm and midnight. This is a classic eastern “ring of fire” type event, however I am not sure how current activity may affect the air mass for later today. If things get going on the current incoming outflow boundary then we may not see much this evening.

Little change through early next week as NW to N flow aloft remains in place and ridge remains far to our west allowing several shots at MCS complexes and storms along the seabreeze. Pattern gets even more interesting come the middle of next week as a 850 to 700mb trough attempts to establish over the state with deep tropical moisture in place. Current trough axis placement is to our west keeping us wet…patterns such as this in the middle of summer with weak steering can lead to some very impressive rainfall totals. DGEX also develops a tropical cyclone over the northern Gulf and moves it into TX around the middle of next week…will disregard for now in favor of a more TUTT low solution heading for the coastal bend toward the middle to end of next week.

While we need every drop of rain we can get…we do not need it all at once!

[srainhoutx]

Outflow boundry in Montgomery County starting to fire up. CU Field is looking good to our S and W with towering cumulus developing rapidly in NW Harris County. Looks as if the rain is on the way.

http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/sa ... &itype=vis

[jasons2k]

The outflow has now passed to my south, with only a few sprinkles here. Looks like I will have to wait for the bigger mass to our north....if it can hold together?

[srainhoutx]

The outflow has now passed to my south, with only a few sprinkles here. Looks like I will have to wait for the bigger mass to our north....if it can hold together?

Just put away the pool furniture cushions, lowered the umbrella, and turned off the sprinkler system for the first time since May. That should seal the deal that it won't rain all weekend in NW Harris County.

[TexasSam]

I got a little rain, but I want more!

More cow bell baby! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q4royOLtvmQ

[bighaben]

Beautiful weather today!

I know everyone wants rain, but if it can just hold off until after I get to work that'd be awesome! Only an hour and half (ish). I need to bike in. Finally get some decent temps to bike into work though! I was getting a little tired of 100 degree + temps with a mile and half long bike ride to work. These low 80's are so cold.

[Yankeegirl]

I dont like the way the radar looks... its too quiet... where is the rain???

[HouTXmetro]

WOW, no rain in the inner Loop AGAIN, and not a drop in sight. What happened?

[vbhoutex]

Can you say POOF!!!!?

Gee we only got to 99ºF today at the house thanks to the early cloud cover and someone flying over and spitting out the window.

[CajunMama]

I feel for y'all not getting that rain. *Poof* is the spawn of satan I guess i won't mention that we had some street flooding rains today

[southerngale]

Nothing over here, either. And we had the highest chance we've had in a long time... 60%.

Frick is the new Frack, apparently!

[srainhoutx]

Once again no rain at my location yesterday and really not looking to good today as well. The 12Z GFS came in drier and by the looks of things, it appears to be rather spot on. Keeping an eye on the shortwave in the TX Panhandle and OK heading SE. Maybe, just maybe we can get some relief for the drought parched areas in NW Harris County from that disturbance. It's getting old watching everyone to my S and E have afternoon and evening thunderstorms and nothing but a beautiful sun set and light show for us on this side of town. HGX Aviation Update at the noon hour...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1201 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2009

.AVIATION...
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NOW BEING MET ACROSS MOST AREAS OF THE REGION
AND CU & SCT PRECIP NOW STARTING TO DEVELOP. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. DOESN`T APPEAR
ONE LOCATION IS FAVORED MUCH MORE THAN ANOTHER (DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE N WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS AS WILL SEABREEZE TO THE
S). PLAN ON GOING WITH VCTS`S FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND MOST
LIKELY SOME TEMPO`S IN THE SHORT TERM WHERE NECESSARY. COULD BE SOME
35KT GUSTS IN/NEAR THE STRONGER CELLS. WILL ALSO BE WATCHING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR LATER IN THE AFTN. MERGERS BETWEEN ANY STORMS DRIFTING IN
FROM THE N AND THOSE MOVING IN FROM THE SEABREEZE COULD SIT FOR A
WHILE. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET.

MODELS ALL AGREE ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF PRECIP TOMORROW BUT NOT
NECESSARILY ON THE SAME PAGE AS TO WHEN. SOME FAVOR A START IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WHILE OTHERS WAIT TILL THE AFTN. NOT GONNA
COMPLICATE THE TAFS THAT FAR OUT AND WILL JUST COVER THE SITUATION
WITH CB`S/VCTS`S FOR NOW. 47

[PTrackerLA]

I feel for y'all not getting that rain. *Poof* is the spawn of satan I guess i won't mention that we had some street flooding rains today

Turning into a "wet" July around here with over 7" officially since July 1st. Southern Lafayette parish (Broussard/Youngsville) have easily had over 10" this month after yesterdays 4" deluge. Received another great 1"+ soaking at my house yesterday and looks like we might get some strong storms roll in from the north later today. It's safe to say our drought is busted for Lafayette, but what a miserable June 2009 that was! Here's hoping for similar relief for our SE TX friends.