Development with Tropical Wave in MDR?

[Aric Dunn]

Vorticity is on the increase with it at the 850 mb level

[Aric Dunn]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 170524
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N29W TO 13N32W TO 7N32W MOVING W
NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN MOVED E OF ITS 16/1800 UTC
SURFACE ANALYSIS POSITION TO COINCIDE WITH A LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
QUIKSCAT PASS AROUND 16/2045 UTC INDICATED CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN
THE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 30W-33W.

[Thunder44]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 170540
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF
ANY...IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT
15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0540.shtml

[cycloneye]

Here is wave 2.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

God hit the 'on' switch for the ITCZ a bit early. But we all saw it happening. Whenever the pacific lights up atlantic is never 2 weeks behind. I will say we are going to have some form of a july storm. Models are bullish, conditions are calming. Convection, the real fuel.


Looks nice this morning. I think we may mave something on the #2

[alan1961]

Can we say '' Blob Watch Underway ''

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Can we say '' Blob Watch Underway ''

Probably


But the itcz train has started

[cycloneye]

Aric,I have a loop for you. If you look closely,the rotation is more to the SW side of convection.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,I have a loop for you. If you look closely,the rotation is more to the SW side of convection.

right.. I figured most of the vorticity was still attached to the ITCZ..

and if we were going to see development we would want it a little farther south both to kep it from the dry air above 15 N and the shear above that.

Thanks hopefully the noaa site puts a floater on it today.

on a side note again.. wave one is looking better with a clear circulation starting to take shape only problem is its about to plow into 50 kts of shear ... so low chances there till western carrib.

[Aric Dunn]

well its finally in view here
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnhe.html

[Aric Dunn]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE QUIKSCAT PASS AROUND
16/2045 UTC INDICATED CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE FLOW NEAR THE
SURFACE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 31W-36W.




not hugely impressive .. but interesting..

[cycloneye]

996
ABNT20 KNHC 171137
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS LIKELY TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[wxman57]

I agree, less than 30% chance of development. Actually, less than 1% now. It's moving into the zone of death, with wind shear 50-60 kts, in the next 24-36 hours. So if it doesn't develop within the next 24 hours (which it almost certainly won't), then it'll be ripped apart like the disturbance along 52W just ahead of it. Curious that it warrants a slight chance today vs. two days ago when it looked even better, when its best chance of development has passed.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[gatorcane]

I agree, less than 30% chance of development. Actually, less than 1% now. It's moving into the zone of death, with wind shear 50-60 kts, in the next 24-36 hours. So if it doesn't develop within the next 24 hours (which it almost certainly won't), then it'll be ripped apart like the disturbance along 52W just ahead of it. Curious that it warrants a slight chance today vs. two days ago when it looked even better, when its best chance of development has passed.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Not only that but I can't find a single model that actually develops this wave contrary to comments further up this thread about how models are "bullish". At this time, I am not expecting development either. NHC is likely going to remove the code yellow once it starts hitting that shear.

[Gustywind]

In case of invest tommorow...: here is a link of NRL navy site for those who have forget it http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

And this,my friend, is why this is the best weather site in the galaxy! Thank you!

LOL you're right no problem, if i can be informative here i'm ok!

[Frank2]

I still think the wave might have been a TD 48 hours ago but has since weakened - as others said, strong shear east of the islands at this time, so...

[Aric Dunn]

I agree, less than 30% chance of development. Actually, less than 1% now. It's moving into the zone of death, with wind shear 50-60 kts, in the next 24-36 hours. So if it doesn't develop within the next 24 hours (which it almost certainly won't), then it'll be ripped apart like the disturbance along 52W just ahead of it. Curious that it warrants a slight chance today vs. two days ago when it looked even better, when its best chance of development has passed.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

umm.. the second wave the one in questions has two days at least till that time .. as the wave infront of it is just now starting to hit the shear and wave 2 was two days behind the first one.. but yeah besides that either way development would have to happen before it hits the shear.

[cycloneye]

57,after it passes the zone of death,as it moves further west (Western Caribbean,Bahamas) it has more chances?

[Dean4Storms]

Between the dry air to the north and the upcoming shear it has odds stacked against it big time!

[wxman57]

57,after it passes the zone of death,as it moves further west (Western Caribbean,Bahamas) it has more chances?

Sure it does. The shear will just rip the thunderstorms away. Once passed the shear, the wave will have as good a chance of developing as any other wave this time of year - probably a better chance of developing than it will have over the next 3-4 days.

However, Ana will not form until August 8th.