ATL: INVEST (97L)

[cycloneye]

Invest for Wave at Eastern Atlantic

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al972009.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200907171548
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2009, DB, O, 2009071712, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL972009
AL, 97, 2009071712, , BEST, 0, 122N, 315W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2009071618, , BEST, 0, 118N, 299W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2009071700, , BEST, 0, 119N, 316W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2009071706, , BEST, 0, 120N, 331W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2009071712, , BEST, 0, 120N, 347W, 20, 1012, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest


But they skipped 95 / 96??

[HURAKAN]

97L it is.

[tailgater]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater
Till they put a another floater over it.

[cycloneye]

First Model Plots for 97L

075
WHXX01 KWBC 171558
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1558 UTC FRI JUL 17 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972009) 20090717 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090717 1200 090718 0000 090718 1200 090719 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.0N 34.7W 12.8N 38.5W 13.2N 42.5W 13.6N 46.4W
BAMD 12.0N 34.7W 12.3N 37.5W 12.2N 40.4W 12.0N 43.2W
BAMM 12.0N 34.7W 12.4N 38.3W 12.6N 41.8W 12.6N 45.1W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 28KTS 34KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 28KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090719 1200 090720 1200 090721 1200 090722 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.8N 50.3W 15.2N 58.2W 18.4N 65.9W 21.6N 72.5W
BAMD 11.8N 45.9W 12.1N 51.3W 13.9N 57.2W 16.2N 64.0W
BAMM 12.5N 48.3W 13.5N 54.6W 16.3N 60.9W 20.0N 67.2W
SHIP 40KTS 51KTS 59KTS 66KTS
DSHP 40KTS 51KTS 59KTS 66KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.0N LONCUR = 34.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 11.9N LONM12 = 31.6W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 11.5N LONM24 = 28.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Sanibel]

Spin is usually the toughest thing to get. 97L has spin but it looks like the dry air and shear are stronger. We'll see if it beats them. 60 knot shear usually destroys disturbances.

[Nimbus]

The TUTT looks way too strong for this to have much chance. Dry air on the west side of the TUTT would reduce the rain threat to PR if the TUTT remains at its current location. Good training run though and there is some rotation and convection.

Maybe they think the system has enough time to organize before getting clobbered by the shear? I suppose the TUTT would initially ventilate the system before shearing the tops off? We might see a naked swirl in the Caribbean next week who knows.

[tina25]

Floater 1 is now on it.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

[Sanibel]

Too weak. Looks like it is about to get crushed.

[Ed Mahmoud]

[Ed Mahmoud]

Did I sleep through 96L?

[Blown Away]

Nice to be back in the Active Tropical Systems for 2009. IMO this invest looks pretty good. Tough road ahead. I love open Atlantic systems following the traditional WNW track.

[senorpepr]

Did I sleep through 96L?

95L and 96L were skipped...

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

About the only chance it has is to develop further while in a relatively low shear environment now and then stay just north of 10N skirting the northern coast of South America. The shear is actually not to bad if it stays at a lower lattitude staying south of the TUTT. Right now it seems to be not gaining any lattitude at all, probably losing a little as it moves due west or just south of west.

However if it moves just a little WNW over the new few days its toast. At this time I leaning towards this latter outcome with no development into a named storm at this time.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Did I sleep through 96L?

95L and 96L were skipped...

Anybody know why?

[poof121]

What model does SHIP use for the location of the disturbance?

[cycloneye]

I dont know if is from this system but CMC shows something moving NW from the Western Caribbean into the EGOM.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

433
ABNT20 KNHC 171733
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 800
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE...AND ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS
THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Aric Dunn]

well with the close up loop.. the low level signature is pretty elongated and weak .. the only thing that will give this a boost is some nice deep convection..

[Ed Mahmoud]

I dont know if is from this system but CMC shows something moving NW from the Western Caribbean into the EGOM.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Track the 850 mb vorticity. The Canadian cyclone, apparently in position, based on the 500 mb features, to menace the Northeastern GOMEX coast, is this area approaching the Lesser Antilles


neither GFS or Canadian develop 97L.

[poof121]

I dont know if is from this system but CMC shows something moving NW from the Western Caribbean into the EGOM.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

The time seems about right for it to be this one. Makes sense for it not to develop until it gets past the shear.

Figures, once again a tropical system ruining my camping trip.