WPAC: TY MOLAVE 0906 (07W / PAGASA Isang)

[HURAKAN]

Looking good.

[CrazyC83]

Looks to be about 65 kt (1-min). The solid banding and eyewall formation makes me think this is a minimal typhoon on our scale (not on the JMA's scale yet though).

[beaufort12]

Here in Shenzhen we are keeping a close eye on whether Molave keeps a west to wnw track, bringing it very close. Although this is a WPAC storm, the time that the members take to keep the info current is really appreciated. Storm2K is my main source of info on this and all WPAC storms, and the work of the members posting here is great. Thanks to all!

[HURAKAN]

Looking good.

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 12
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 21.3N 118.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3N 118.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 22.3N 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 22.9N 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 23.0N 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 21.6N 117.5E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (MOLAVE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM EAST
OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO TRACK ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS ANTICIPATED TO MAKE
LANDFALL NEAR TAU 12. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS
15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

It will be close to Hong Kong.

[JTE50]

James you got your batteries charged? Send a link to video and pics when the show is over! Get up in one of those high rises in Hong Kong! LOL

[Aric Dunn]

are they really trying to that a Tropical storm ?? lol

[Aric Dunn]

its pretty darn close to Typhoon strength..

[Typhoon Hunter]

are they really trying to that a Tropical storm ?? lol

Well since I live in Hong Kong I might as well!

Batteries charged and 8 hours of tape stock prepared, could be an interesting night.

This is a good radar site for tracking it's approach - http://www.nmc.gov.cn/publish/radar/shantou.htm

Seems to be heading more or less west and on current crash course with Hong Kong and Pearl River Delta area. Eye clearly visible on VIS satellite and looks like a damn typhoon to me!

[Aric Dunn]

are they really trying to that a Tropical storm ?? lol

Well since I live in Hong Kong I might as well!

Batteries charged and 8 hours of tape stock prepared, could be an interesting night.

This is a good radar site for tracking it's approach - http://www.nmc.gov.cn/publish/radar/shantou.htm

Seems to be heading more or less west and on current crash course with Hong Kong and Pearl River Delta area. Eye clearly visible on VIS satellite and looks like a damn typhoon to me!

awesome thanks for that radar.

can you rad this site cause the link i used to have for the radar out of taiwan is not working and i can read it to find it again

http://www.cwb.gov.tw

[Aric Dunn]

ok nevermind i found it

http://www.cwb.gov.tw/eng/observe/radar/radar2.htm?


looks pretty close to a closed eyewall...


could be a typhoon here very soon

[Aric Dunn]

ok nevermind i found it

http://www.cwb.gov.tw/eng/observe/radar/radar2.htm?


looks pretty close to a closed eyewall...


could be a typhoon here very soon

actually if you turn off the topo it goes to a normal looking radar then run the 4 hour loop... would say its a closed eye wall ..

[HURAKAN]

I C U!!!

[Aric Dunn]

I C U!!!

lol... thats pretty funny..

[senorpepr]

Very hot and humid W of Hong Kong where the clouds aren't overhead. Temps are in the upper 90s to low 100s with dewpoints in the upper 60s inland to low 80s near Hong Kong.

Heat indices N and W of Hong Kong range from 100-113°F.

[beaufort12]

I can vouch for it being HOT and HUMID. The air temperature here, north of Hong Kong, reached 100 °F and trust me, it was sticky. The first band of thunderstorms just moved through here and lasted about 10 minutes. Looks like the main part of the system is making a beeline for here. At night, of course.

[HURAKAN]

Getting close to landfall.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Eye contracting on radar and T# going up:

133
TXPN22 KNES 180952
SIMWIR
A. 07W (MOLAVE)

B. 18/0830Z

C. 22.0N

D. 116.6E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...DT=5.0 FOR EMBEDDED BLACK CENTER OR 4.5 BASES ON 1.4
BANDING. MET=5.0 AND PAT=4.5 FT BASED BANDING DT AND PAT AS NORTHERN
BANDING MADE OF WEAK CONVECTION IN MI DATA AS OUTER BANDS MAKING LANDFALL.

I will be up throughout the night, filming and posting updates online. http://www.typhoonfury.com

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 21.7N 117.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 117.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 22.4N 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 22.6N 111.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 22.6N 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 21.9N 116.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM EAST
OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE STORM HAS
LOST SOME OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEEDER BANDS
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, THE NORTHERN RIM OF THE
CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE FLATTENING OUT, AN INDICATION THAT IT MAY NOW
BE ENCOUNTERING STRONG EASTERLY WINDS. TS 07W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY, RADAR LOOP FROM TAIWAN, AND AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A 180204Z
AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THEN MAKE LANDFALL NEAR HONG KONG BY TAU 12.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.//
NNNN