Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Posting the PR-VI radar to follow all the rain that the wave will bring.Also adding the sat pic of our area.Web cam from ST Maarten is added.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 172332
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY
BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS DECREASED THIS EVENING.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE
WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[abajan]

We have started to get some welcome refreshing showers from this wave that's just to the east of the islands. Our official forecast for tonight states: "Partly cloudy to cloudy with some showers and isolated thunderstorms" and for tomorrow: "Cloudy with some light to moderate showers and isolated thunderstorms. Some gradual improvement is likely during the afternoon."

The meteorologist on our local TV news stated that shower activity associated with this wave is expected to become enhanced as it comes under the influence of an upper level trough presently over the Lesser Antilles. He also stated that the section of the ITCZ (Inter Tropical Convergence Zone) that's south of our area is likely to get pulled northward because of the trough.

Perhaps this link explains it better than I have.

[Cosme]

Hello to all! Another bajan here posting from St. James
Looks like it's about time to all aboard the wave train, huh?

[cycloneye]

As abajan said,rain has started not only in Barbados,but in other islands of the Windwarda and Southern Leewards.



http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

[cycloneye]

Hello to all! Another bajan here posting from St. James
Looks like it's about time to all aboard the wave train, huh?

Welcome to storm2k and enjoy it all.Also welcome to this thread for those who live in the Eastern Caribbean.

[abajan]

Hello to all! Another bajan here posting from St. James
Looks like it's about time to all aboard the wave train, huh?

Err... Cosme, almost a year has passed since you joined S2K and you've only just made your first post? What's up with that?
Anyway, it's nice having another Bajan aboard (there are a few others but for some reason, they hardly ever post. I don't know what they're afraid of).

Since you're from St. James which gets significantly more rainfall than Christ Church (especially this part of the parish), it will give a more balanced picture to S2K of weather events affecting the island. So we certainly look forward to hearing from you more often.

[Cosme]

Hello to all! Another bajan here posting from St. James
Looks like it's about time to all aboard the wave train, huh?

Err... Cosme, almost a year has passed since you joined S2K and you've only just made your first post? What's up with that?
Anyway, it's nice having another Bajan aboard (there are a few others but for some reason, they hardly ever post. I don't know what they're afraid of).

Since you're from St. James which gets significantly more rainfall than Christ Church (especially this part of the parish), it will give a more balanced picture to S2K of weather events affecting the island. So we certainly look forward to hearing from you more often.

Yeah I'm used to sitting back and lurking, taking in info as it comes. Anyway, I'll be glad to give some updates from our rain capital, pretty much. I find it amazing how this little rock can experience such varied weather conditions across different spots.

[cycloneye]

FXCA62 TJSJ 180122
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
922 PM AST FRI JUL 17 2009

.UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST CONCEPT. WILL
ADJUST QPF VALUES IN ORDER TO BETTER REFLECT THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION AND THE DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING TROPICAL WAVE...NOW NEAR 56 WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...18/00Z SOUNDING SHOWED THE LOWER MOIST LAYER
DEEPENED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WHILE MID LEVELS ACTUALLY DRIED
SOMEWHAT. 30 KNOT WINDS CONTINUE BETWEEN 9 AND 12 THOUSAND FEET.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all the fellow Caribbean members.The rainy weather has arrived for some of you.

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 180849 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
441 AM AST SAT JUL 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTTED THE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. FEW OF
THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO AS WELL AS VIEQUES...CULEBRA...ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED SO FAR THIS MORNING.

LATEST MIMIC-TPW ANALYSIS FROM CIMSS AND SATELLITE IMAGES EARLY THIS
MORNING...DEPICTED A NARROW ZONE OF DRY AIR...JUST ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THIS AREA OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR IS ASSOCIATED WITH
SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED ALONG 58
WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS NARROW AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WILL BE JUST
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD TODAY...WITH LATEST
RUN OF GFS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT THE BULK OF MOISTURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BY 19/0600Z AND ACROSS PUERTO
RICO BY 19/1200Z. LATEST RUN OF THE NAM MODEL GUIDANCE DELAY THE
MOISTURE A LITTLE BIT...ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BY 19/1500Z
AND ACROSS PUERTO RICO BY 19/1800. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS MODELS GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS THE FA STARTING LATE TONIGHT...
WITH MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW (TUTT) AXIS JUST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL AID TO INDUCE ACTIVE CONVECTION AS THE WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS
REASONING THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWED A STEADILY INCREASE IN
PWAT VALUES...FROM 1.60 INCHES ON 19/0600Z TO 2.27 INCHES ON
20/0000Z. OPTICAL DEPTH CHARTS FROM NAAPS SUGGESTS A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN AFRICAN DUST AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.
ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 42 WEST THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED BY LATE TUESDAY.
ACCORDINGLY TO TPC/NHC...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MAINLY BTWN 020-070 KFT
AND ACCOMPANYING TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WATERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL REACH THE COASTAL AREAS OF EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AND PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AT LEAST THROUGH 18/12Z.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT LOCAL TAF SITES...HOWEVER
BRIEF MVFR CIG CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIST...TISX AND TJSJ FROM
18/07Z-11Z. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA AND ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION. A WIND SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING TROPICAL
WAVE WILL PRODUCE INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
SHOULD BE REQUIRED FOR OTHER MARINES ZONES LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

[cycloneye]

[HURAKAN]

Heavy rain to the East.

[Gustywind]

Conditions should quickly deteriorate as Meteo-France mentionned in its last weather forecast... yellow alert is in tape. Here is the forecast at 6 am this saturday

Synopsis and observations
A moderate to active twave is on the verge to cross the Lesser Antilles and concern us (Guadeloupe) for the next 48 hours.
We have observed last night numerous strong showers on Guadeloupe, but nothing pretty siginificatif for the moment. Whereas, Martinica have experienced much more in terms of showers.
Forecasts
Showers and thunderstorms locally strong are present during the next 48 hours, with some period of calm, thus pretty long.
The peak of activity is expected tonight and during the night. Be careful, cumuls of precipitations near 30 to 60 millimeters is highly possible in only a few hours.
On 12 hours, these cumuls could reach 60 to 100 millimeters, and much more in the moutains areas.
Summary
Impact expected moderate
Validity expected : right now until Sunday night at least
Next weather forecast: this Saturday at 5pm
Meteo-France Guadeloupe
An heavy bulk of convection is racing and growing like popcorn under the Windwards /Leewards islands and does not want to weaken, click the link to see
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

Current Weather Conditions:
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe, Guadeloupe
(TFFR) 16-16N 061-31W 11M
Conditions at Jul 18, 2009 - 08:00 AM EDTJul 18, 2009 -2009.07.18 1200 UTC
Wind from the NE (040 degrees) at 6 MPH (5 KT) (direction variable)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 77 F (25 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 94%
Pressure (altimeter) 30.00 in. Hg (1016 hPa)
ob TFFR 181200Z 04005KT 290V070 9999 FEW012 FEW016CB SCT020 BKN280 25/24 Q1016 RESHRA TEMPO 4000 SHR

The NHC weather forecast:
000
AXNT20 KNHC 181047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WESTWARD
15 TO 20 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 32N51W TO
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 28N52W TO 24N55W TO 19N59W.
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 18N
BETWEEN 56W AND 60W...AND FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 60W AND 61W.
OTHER RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER FROM 10N TO 20N
BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Convection on the increase...8am sat pic east of Guadeloupe

[expat2carib]

On Dominica we had some heavy showers in the early morning/night. It's calm sunny weather right now.

[Gustywind]

Overcast, grey, light showers in vicinity, winds are calm 9am

[cycloneye]

Here the winds haved gone up to an average of 15-20 mph and even higher in parts of the island.As the pressure gradient gets tight between the high pressure to the north and the tropical wave,the winds will be up.

Code: Select all

ASCA42 TJSJ 181410
RWRPR
PUERTO RICO/U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HOURLY WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1000 AM AST SAT JUL 18 2009

PRZ001-004-181500-
PUERTO RICO

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
SAN JUAN LMM   MOSUNNY   88  75  66 E17       30.09S HX  97
AGUADILLA      MOSUNNY   86  75  70 NE17      30.10R HX  95
$$

PRZ006-007-181500-
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
CHARLOTTE AMA  SUNNY     90  72  55 E14G22    30.08S HX  96
CHRISTIANSTED  MOSUNNY   88  72  58 NE20G26   30.07S HX  94


[msbee]

I'm still off island but it sure looks like it is going to be a rainy day in St Maarten, as this wave approaches.
this is the current view from a Great Bay web cam

[cycloneye]

Thats a great web cam Barbara.Lets see later today,when the wave moves thru,how that area looks in the cam.Sunny skies prevail in San Juan with little cumulus clouds moving from east to west rapidly with the wind flow.I know that tommorow will be another story.

[msbee]

Luis
is that cam updating?
on my computer, it looks like a new pic and the time is updated.
how is that happening?