Severe weather predictions for coming years...

[Calasanjy]

Considering the weather patterns in recent years, and the large dearth in F5 tornadoes from the 2000 through the 2006 tornado seasons, I have made an attempt to predict the severe weather patterns from now through 2025. Although I will soon present an overview of the tornado outbreaks I expect to occur, I will now only predict the dates and locations of the EF5 tornadoes I foresee. I believe that a drought in twisters of the maximum category such as seen from May 3, 1999 until May 4, 2007 is very unprecedented and not likely to reoccur in the near future. Here are my predictions of the EF5 tornado occurrences:

Tornado season predictions 2010-2025

The (E)F5 tornadoes by date and location:

Date Location Time Fat/Inj Characteristics

March 18, 2010 N Mississippi 8:15 PM 11/85 Fast-moving, ½ mile wide multivortex tornado, 240 mph winds

April 7, 2011 EastCntrl OK 4:40 PM 3/9 11/4 mile wide, rainwrapped wedge tornado, 210 mph winds

November 15, 2011 SW Tennessee 1:20 PM 14/72 3/8 mile wide, destroys high school, part of significant late-season outbreak, 200 mph winds

May 13, 2014 Southcent NY 5:50 PM 11/118 1 1/8 mile wide, 73 mile track W-E along line approx. 25 mi north of NY/PA border, occurs on second day of major 2-day NE US outbreak, 225 mph winds

August 28, 2015 Central MI 3:30 PM 6/39 ¾ mile wide, first F5 tornado in Michigan since 1960s, 210 mph winds

April 10, 2017 Central AR 7:25 PM 7/71 1 ½ mile wide, first official F5 tornado in AR (since 1950), 87 mile path to ENE, 220 mph winds, occurs as part of significant outbreak

June 3, 2017 NE SD-MN 11:10 PM 10/62 1 7/8 mile wide, 103 mile path, 205 mph winds

January 8, 2018 N TN-S KY 4:00 PM 24/139 ¾ mile wide, 215 mph winds

May 19, 2018 Central NE 8:40 PM 11/65 5/8 mile wide, dramatic multivortices, 265 mph winds, determined to be one of the strongest tornadoes ever, DOW readings of 315 mph, 112 mile path from SSW to NNE beginning 45 miles north of KS border, part of major north/central Plains outbreak

May 19, 2018 NW MO 9:50 PM 19/103 1 ½ mile wide, 220 mph winds, 61 mile path SW to NE across NW Missouri

March 26, 2019 N GA – SWSC 2:35 PM 27/146 7/8 mile wide, first recorded F5 tornado in GA and SC (since 1950), 81 mile path, 230 mph winds

June 17, 2021 Dallas TX metro 6:10 P 48/259 1 ¼ mile wide, 210 mph winds

February 15, 2022 N Alabama 3:45 PM 7/63 ¾ mile wide, 225 mph winds

May 7, 2022 S Illinois 2:30 AM 25/184 1 1/8 mile wide, 205 mph winds

September 10, 2023 Central KS 1:15 PM 4/17 1 3/8 mile wide, 215 mph winds

April 30, 2025 West Texas 7:20 PM 6/25 ¾ mile wide, 220 mph winds

Although it is a shot in the dark, what are your predictions regarding the coming tornado seasons, and what notable tornadoes and outbreaks do you anticipate?

[Ed Mahmoud]

May 19, 2018 Central NE 8:40 PM 11/65 5/8 mile wide, dramatic multivortices, 265 mph winds, determined to be one of the strongest tornadoes ever, DOW readings of 315 mph, 112 mile path from SSW to NNE beginning 45 miles north of KS border, part of major north/central Plains outbreak

Could you be a little more specific?

[Calasanjy]

Could you be a little more specific?

By this, I indicate that while the tornado will be assessed by the NWS team as having 265 MPH winds, a team following with the Doppler on Wheels device will record an upper-level wind speed of 315 MPH.

I realize that there is no upper bound on the EF5 rating; however how high do you believe we will see the winds assessed? The Greensburg and Parkersburg tornadoes were both described as "low-end EF5s" with maximum winds of approximately 205 MPH based upon damage analysis.

[somethingfunny]

June 17, 2021 Dallas TX metro 6:10 P 48/259 1 ¼ mile wide, 210 mph winds

That's my 33rd birthday. I don't know if I'll still be living in DFW by that time; however I believe the tornado's maximum winds will be closer to 230mph.

[Ed Mahmoud]

June 17, 2021 Dallas TX metro 6:10 P 48/259 1 ¼ mile wide, 210 mph winds

That's my 33rd birthday. I don't know if I'll still be living in DFW by that time; however I believe the tornado's maximum winds will be closer to 230mph.

Arlington to Grand Prairie, a second tornado strikes near Joe Pool Lake from the same cell, and I don't see it getting much over EF2, maybe low end EF3.

[wall_cloud]

I'm not sure what's worse. That you took the time to type that nonsense or that I took the time to read it.

[Calasanjy]

I'm not sure what's worse. That you took the time to type that nonsense or that I took the time to read it.

Relax, I was simply making nonscientific predictions, similar to the hurricane season predictions already a feature of this forum. Of course there are no guarantees that any of these tornadoes (probably none exactly the way I foresaw them) will occur. I do believe however that sometime this century a violent tornado will occur around the Dallas/Fort Worth metro area, however. I don't foresee it being as great a catastrophe as some doomsayers predict though (i.e. It Could Happen Tomorrow on The Weather Channel).

[Category 5]

This looks like fun. Can I play too?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Wow you made all these insane predictions but you forgot the world was coming to an end in 2012...

[vbhoutex]

Wow you made all these insane predictions but you forgot the world was coming to an end in 2012...

Only you D5, only you!!!
And yes anyone can play as long as they are nice.

[Category 5]

Good I like name an unlikely disaster on a random date games.

December 21st 2012, tornado destroys universe.

[Calasanjy]

Good I like name an unlikely disaster on a random date games.

December 21st 2012, tornado destroys universe.

Always a possibility, however I am not going to play Nostradamus and predict the end of the universe.

Not exactly an "unlikely disaster" scenario, seeing as violent tornadoes have always occurred and are likely to continue to strike for the foreseeable future. In addition, I don't see the hurricane predictions being exceptionally more scientific.

[Calasanjy]

It has been quite the time also since a significant outbreak in the northeastern CONUS. The last truly significant ones occurred on May 31 and June 2, 1998 - the May 31 incident sparked by a serial derecho beginning in South Dakota (it has been 11 years). Prior to that, the last major tornadic event occurred on May 31, 1985 (14 years prior). Although I don't believe in patterns or a specific area being "due" for an outbreak, I believe the chances are high for one in the coming decade, perhaps including an EF5 tornado.

[Siberian Express]

I'm not sure what's worse. That you took the time to type that nonsense or that I took the time to read it.

I would agree, whimsical stuff.

[Calasanjy]

I'm not sure what's worse. That you took the time to type that nonsense or that I took the time to read it.

Sorry, never realized that this forum excluded nonscientific predictions.

I would agree, whimsical stuff.

And how is that any different than people trying to predict "what names will be the worst in XXXX hurricane season" or predicting seasons years in advance? Out of curiosity, what do you think of the likelihood of some of these events being even the slightest bit possible?

[wall_cloud]

given the unproportional occurences of EF4-EF5 tornadoes, I think the likelihood of one of these very rare phenomena hitting one of the aforementioned locations is extremely small between now and 2025. As for the dates, while I cannot say it is impossible, the probability of one of the predictions coming true is almost nonexistant. I think its far more likely that our planet is struck by a giant asteroid than realizing even one of the above predictions.

As for the hurricane predictions, why do you think I never post in that section?

[vbhoutex]

given the unproportional occurences of EF4-EF5 tornadoes, I think the likelihood of one of these very rare phenomena hitting one of the aforementioned locations is extremely small between now and 2025. As for the dates, while I cannot say it is impossible, the probability of one of the predictions coming true is almost nonexistant. I think its far more likely that our planet is struck by a giant asteroid than realizing even one of the above predictions.

As for the hurricane predictions, why do you think I never post in that section?

Because you are in Amarillo?

[wall_cloud]

I also spent several years on the Gulf coast before moving to Amarillo.

[Cyclenall]

The difference between this and predicting when a TS form are tornadoes are smaller scale events in meteorology which are far harder to predict then tropical low pressure systems of any kind.

[Category 5]

throw a dart at a large map of the U.S and the odds of that dart hitting a certain location are about the same odds of a tornado hitting it (on average, it varies from area to area). take that and make it an EF-4 EF-5 and the odds are 1 in 90484120482104812048120968696975986967595986969869. trying to predict EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes years ahead of time is just flat out nonsense. Theres no science involved and it accomplishes nothing.

Granted, its not as bad about people whining about the dead tropics when the pacific is active.