Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

The 12z CMC has a TC just SW of FT Myers at the 144 hour timeframe.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[srainhoutx]

Keep an eye on the Atlantic Ridge. Several models are "sniffing" some development near the NW Caribbean.

[Ed Mahmoud]

IF the Canadian is correct, troughiness between the Texas Death Ridge and the Atlantic Ridge would argue for continued motion between North and Northwest, probably the Florida Panhandle to Mississippi.

In my amateur and unofficial opinion.

[srainhoutx]

One thing I noticed is the lack of shear near the area in a few days. Also, HPC is "hinting" a cut off feature in the 5-7 time frame.

[cycloneye]

Watchout Carolinas and points northward as the EURO tracks wave or more? thru outerbanks,Long Island,Cape Cod.

12z ECMWF

[Ed Mahmoud]

Watchout Carolinas and points northward as the EURO tracks wave or more? thru outerbanks,Long Island,Cape Cod.

12z ECMWF

21ºC water South of Islip, Long Island. Given, a tropical cyclone is over water cooler than necessary for maintaining strength North of about Delaware, where the Gulf Stream curves Eastward, but in August and September the SSTs are usually a couple of degrees warmer, slowing weakening somewhat. The other question is whether the near surface layer over 21ºC water might be too stable to allow the strongest winds to mix down.


I lived in Massapequa, NY until I was a teenager, I recall a single thunderstorm with severe criteria hail, maybe two with severe surface winds. Most t-storms, to the best of my young recollection, were elevated.

The standard of big Northeast hurricanes, 1938, hit late September, when SSTs were near maximum.

[Weatherboy1]

HPC's maps for days 5-7 track a wave in the area of the Bahamas starting a recurve toward the NE FL-through-Carolinas area. Not even enough to merit a "L" designation on the map, but worth watching to see if this thing pulls itself together any more in the next day or two.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day7nav_color.html

[Ed Mahmoud]

18Z GFS comes this close to closing off a surface originating with an upper low, but while it seems to just make it at the 850 mb level, it is inland in Louisiana before anything too exciting happens.


BTW, upper low remains through 200 mb level, so it wouldn't be fully tropical at first even if it did make it to the surface.

[Macrocane]

Watchout Carolinas and points northward as the EURO tracks wave or more? thru outerbanks,Long Island,Cape Cod.

12z ECMWF

The Euro is again showing some sort of tropical/subtropical development just off the east coast of US at 168 h time frame:

00z ECMWF

[cycloneye]

GFS continues to advertise a big system in the Tropical Atlantic as the calender turns to August.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[cycloneye]

Since there is not a model thread for the wave in the islands,I am posting here this from the 12z CMC that shows the wave now in front of 97L organizing just SW of FT Myers in the Keys.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[srainhoutx]

We may see an Invest on this wave in the next 24 hours or so IMHO.

[ROCK]

:uarrow:

We may see an Invest on this wave in the next 24 hours or so IMHO.

shear all over it...center further west than convection. easy to see low level/ mid level circulation out running the convection. Inhanced by a ULL I wouldnt expect this to do anything until closer into the carib and GOM....

[Macrocane]

CMC develops a system west of Florida in 120 h, GFS forms a small low pressure jut off US east coast in 96-120 h and the ECMWF develops a tropical-subtropical cyclone that makes landfall somewhere near US-Canada border in 120 hours too. Models seem in good agreement about development on that area though the exactly location and intensity is still to be seen. Interest along the East Coast from Florida to Canada should monitor this possibility IMHO and amateur opinion.

[HUC]

http://www.meteo.gp/EspacePro/Radars.ph ... portee=200
Radar of Martinica

[HUC]

http://www.meteo.gp/EspacePro/donnees/r ... 9071822200

Now, i think it's ok??

[cycloneye]

18z GFS has wave in islands now moving towards the Bahamas,then towards the Carolinas when it starts to develop.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[cycloneye]

Mark watch there.12z CMC has a strong system just off outerbanks.Is unclear if is related to 97L.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[BigA]

After looking at the 850 mb vorticity, I think the system that the CMC developes is 97L, or at least partially 97 L.

[Macrocane]

GFS, ECMWF and NOGAPS are in agreement with CMC about a low pressure forming in the same are though the CMC is very bullish with the intensity. GFS and NOGAPS develops a possible tropical-subtropical cyclone and ECMWF doesn't seem to develop it in any way.