ATL: INVEST (97L)

jinftl · #161 Postby **jinftl** » Sat Jul 18, 2009 1:33 pm

Intensity forecasts for latest model runs:

KWT · #162 Postby **KWT** » Sat Jul 18, 2009 1:34 pm

I'm not sure the wave in front is moving that slowly to be honest, the main problem is the convection your seeing probably isn't where the wave axis is presently, as I bet the wave axis is quite a bit to the west of there and the convection has been sheared well east of the wave.

#163 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Sat Jul 18, 2009 1:36 pm

KWT wrote:I'm not sure the wave in front is moving that slowly to be honest, the main problem is the convection your seeing probably isn't where the wave axis is presently, as I bet the wave axis is quite a bit to the west of there and the convection has been sheared well east of the wave.

Yea, I figured that much, but even the NHC gave Wave #1 a 15mph forward speed and 97L a 20mph forward speed.

jinftl · #164 Postby **jinftl** » Sat Jul 18, 2009 1:37 pm

Down the road...say in 3-5 days and beyond...if this system stays weak and therefore gains more longitude than latitude...what will the atmosphere in its path look like...that will be key.

Aric Dunn · #165 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 18, 2009 1:37 pm

fact789 wrote:It's apparent to me that 97L is moving a bit faster than Wave #1. What happens if 97L gets pulled up under Wave #1. Wave #1 has convection and 97L is a bit more organized...anything?

well at first, which is what i think is also playing arole in the lack of convection for 97L is that all the convection from the other system maybe casuing some sinking air over top the of 97L . as 97 gets closer the convection ( not the wave associated with it because that is still moving along its just the convection is being held back by the upper winds) it will begin to experience more upper divergence which should increase the convergence at the surface and convection to increase. the two waves will not likely come together ever but the moisture left behind will for sure play a role here soon. still big question is if anything will become of it..

jinftl · #166 Postby **jinftl** » Sat Jul 18, 2009 1:47 pm

For model runs, the 'trend is your friend'....trend is for whatever system there is to move with a more w-nw motion than a nw motion in time...note how much closer the tracks are to puerto rico in current runs than in the 18Z runs yesterday, when they were off to the northeast of the island.

Latest model runs:

Previous model runs:

And run before that:

#167 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 18, 2009 2:09 pm

18 UTC Best Track

AL, 97, 2009071818, , BEST, 0, 123N, 442W, 20, 1013, DB

#168 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jul 18, 2009 2:13 pm

fact789 wrote:It's apparent to me that 97L is moving a bit faster than Wave #1. What happens if 97L gets pulled up under Wave #1. Wave #1 has convection and 97L is a bit more organized...anything?

That's easy, it would become invest #195. (97 + 98).

#169 Postby **Blown Away** » Sat Jul 18, 2009 2:15 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

There is a definite mid to low level rotation in that circled area. Convection is weak, but I noticed the dry air around 97L is starting to moisten and 97L is getting very close to the NE Caribbean wave's convection.

#170 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 18, 2009 2:16 pm

The 12z EURO tracks 97L just north of Puerto Rico and then thru the Bahamas and after it passes them,is where it starts to develop.After that it goes up the coast of Carolinas and points north.

12z ECMWF

#171 Postby **vbhoutex** » Sat Jul 18, 2009 2:19 pm

wxman57 wrote:
fact789 wrote:It's apparent to me that 97L is moving a bit faster than Wave #1. What happens if 97L gets pulled up under Wave #1. Wave #1 has convection and 97L is a bit more organized...anything?

That's easy, it would become invest #195. (97 + 98).

Hurricaneman · #172 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Sat Jul 18, 2009 2:24 pm

It has some mid level circulation, but has low levels of convection

The euro has held to some kind of disturbance forming near the bahamas and making a run up the eastern seaboard for several runs

#173 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Sat Jul 18, 2009 2:30 pm

wxman57 wrote:
fact789 wrote:It's apparent to me that 97L is moving a bit faster than Wave #1. What happens if 97L gets pulled up under Wave #1. Wave #1 has convection and 97L is a bit more organized...anything?

That's easy, it would become invest #195. (97 + 98).

Thats why we keep you around. :blowup:

#174 Postby **Blown Away** » Sat Jul 18, 2009 2:39 pm

Why did the NHC move 97L's floater over the convection blob near the islands?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

poof121 · #175 Postby **poof121** » Sat Jul 18, 2009 2:41 pm

Blown_away wrote:Why did the NHC move 97L's floater over the convection blob near the islands?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Maybe they think it has a better chance? They've renamed the floater to "Invest" instead of 97L.

Aric Dunn · #176 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 18, 2009 2:51 pm

poof121 wrote:
Blown_away wrote:Why did the NHC move 97L's floater over the convection blob near the islands?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Maybe they think it has a better chance? They've renamed the floater to "Invest" instead of 97L.

cause thats where all the action is going to take place very soon.. it seems as the upper ridge builds over the dveloping surface circ associated with that wave in the carrib.. conditions may become much better very fast

#177 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 18, 2009 2:54 pm

Or they are going to pull the plug on 97L soon and have up 98L.

KWT · #178 Postby **KWT** » Sat Jul 18, 2009 2:55 pm

The ECM track is something I've been suggesting could occur for a few days now and the one that would be my punt right now.

Aric Dunn · #179 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 18, 2009 2:55 pm

cycloneye wrote:Or they are going to pull the plug on 97L soon and have up 98L.

well exactly

#180 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 18, 2009 2:56 pm

Oh boy,I didnt looked at the ATCF site before my last post.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al972009.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200907181944
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

ATL: INVEST (97L)

Re: ATL : INVEST (97L) Models

Re:

Re: ATL : INVEST (97L)

Re:

Re: ATL : INVEST (97L) Models

Re: ATL : INVEST (97L)

Re:

Re: ATL : INVEST (97L)

Re: ATL : INVEST (97L) Models

Re: Re:

Re: ATL : INVEST (97L) Models

Re: Re:

Re: ATL : INVEST (97L)

Re: ATL : INVEST (97L)

Re: ATL : INVEST (97L)

Re: ATL : INVEST (97L)

Re: ATL : INVEST (97L)

Re: ATL : INVEST (97L)

Who is online