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cycloneye
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Re: Eastern Caribbean Thread=Observations of T Wave effects

#761 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 18, 2009 5:51 pm

Starting to rain here with a strong NE breeze.In other parts of the island,showers haved been moving fast.It looks like the bad weather is arriving in PR earlier than expected.

Image

Image
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#762 Postby HUC » Sat Jul 18, 2009 6:00 pm

Right now, SE gust of 30KTS....
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Re: Eastern Caribbean Thread=Observations of T Wave effects

#763 Postby abajan » Sat Jul 18, 2009 6:01 pm

WeatherLovingDoc wrote:...Just checked the Caribbean map to refresh which island is which and found St. Kitts. I see Guadeloupe and Dominica are not far east and south, Puerto Rico west...
The best way to remember which island is St. Kitts: It's the one that makes you feel hungry because it looks like a delicious chicken drumstick! :lol: (Just like Italy and Sicily look like a boot kicking a ball.)

Weather in Barbados has been cloudy and humid all day with hardly any showers but it's just started to rain where I am.
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Re: Eastern Caribbean Thread=Observations of T Wave effects

#764 Postby expat2carib » Sat Jul 18, 2009 6:08 pm

Hi Gusty and HUG and all others,

Fishermen are getting worried.

No info at all up here. Should they put their boats on shore?

Here we rely on the information I get from you guys. Should we get our boats on land?

This is an island without any met info. OK when a cat 5 is approaching we know it 3 hours in advance. When they close for the electricity, you know we could be in serious problems. ( the problem is that happens 5 times week because of other reasons)

Any info is appreciated. Thanks
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Re: Eastern Caribbean Thread=Observations of T Wave effects

#765 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 18, 2009 6:12 pm

expat2carib wrote:Hi Gusty and HUG and all others,

Fishermen are getting worried.

No info at all up here. Should they put their boats on shore?

Here we rely on the information I get from you guys. Should we get our boats on land?

This is an island without any met info. OK when a cat 5 is approaching we know it 3 hours in advance. When they close for the electricity, you know we could be in serious problems. ( the problem is that happens 5 times week because of other reasons)

Any info is appreciated. Thanks


I would not venture to offshore fishing due to gusts in thunderstorms that may get high to 30-35kts.Its better to not go out to not have an accident and is better to be safe.Well is my opinion.
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#766 Postby HUC » Sat Jul 18, 2009 6:13 pm

expat,we cannot give any official info,but as you see the weather iis bad,even more at sea...Meteo France announced sweels near 3meters.So,i think that small craft should exercise cautions And with winds gusts of 30kts that i registered on my weather station....
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Re: Eastern Caribbean Thread=Observations of T Wave effects

#767 Postby abajan » Sat Jul 18, 2009 6:19 pm

This loop seems to show some heavy duty rain may be headed Barbados' way from the north.
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Re: Eastern Caribbean Thread=Observations of T Wave effects

#768 Postby expat2carib » Sat Jul 18, 2009 6:25 pm

OK!

Thank you! Fishermen are taking their boats and fishpots on land. 3 meter waves did the trick. We lost hundreds of fish pots last year because of Omar that past hundreds of miles away.

It's not a big deal. Small boats of 20 feet+ means that 4 men can pull them ashore. It's a life saving lost when they get wasted though!
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Re: Eastern Caribbean Thread=Observations of T Wave effects

#769 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 18, 2009 7:19 pm

I went briefly outside my house to get my anemometer data and I clocked 28 mph in a gust as a heavy thunderstorm moved thru San Juan.
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#770 Postby HUC » Sat Jul 18, 2009 7:37 pm

More wind is coming your way,Luis
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Re: Eastern Caribbean Thread=Observations of T Wave effects

#771 Postby WeatherLovingDoc » Sat Jul 18, 2009 8:20 pm

The best way to remember which island is St. Kitts: It's the one that makes you feel hungry because it looks like a delicious chicken drumstick! :lol: (Just like Italy and Sicily look like a boot kicking a ball.)

Weather in Barbados has been cloudy and humid all day with hardly any showers but it's just started to rain where I am.[/quote]

Hahaha, thanks abajan. St. Kitts does look like a drumstick, with Nevis at the bottom of the bone. Haven't heard any update about weather there, other than that the humidity this week was high. Bet it's going higher!

Btw, I liked your post about imagining millions/trillions etc.. that you wrote a while back. Very insightful post. When I try to imagine trillions in life, I always think of "cells". lol.
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Re: Eastern Caribbean Thread=Observations of T Wave effects

#772 Postby expat2carib » Sat Jul 18, 2009 9:16 pm

The wolves are coming...

Their feet are falling on forgotten paths, their long-lost voices are filling the sky. While their yellow eyes cut through the night, they leave their tracks on the muddy riversides.

The wolves are coming...

The forest whispers of their return, of their attempt to restore themselves in Creation, to weave themselves back into the web of life that connects all living things.

The wolves are coming...

Their teeth are seeking out their pray tonight, the deer and the elk, the cattle and sheep, and they will leave blood and bones scattered in their wake. Yet meat is what they need, so on meat they must feed.

The wolves are coming...

Some of us will greet them with traps and bullets, others of us with songs and drums. Some will say "Welcome home brother." others will say "Be gone killer!"

The wolves are coming...

Some of them will come alone, others will come in packs. Gray wolves, black wolves, brown wolves, silver wolves, even white wolves, all coming back, back to the lands they once roamed.

The wolves are coming...

Some of us will like it, some of us will not. Some of us will stalk them with cameras, and others of us will stalk them with guns. And then we tremble if they stalk us.

The wolves are coming...

They are clothed in mystery and majesty, surrounded by our love and hate. They wander through our thoughts and dreams, and they appear in our stories and legends.

The wolves are coming...

Their young will play in the meadows, the old ones will doze in the sun, and the alphas will watch over them both, for they are not just a pack, but a family.

The wolves are coming...

Now their howls are echoing in the mountains, carried by the cold winds down into our logging camps, our real estate developments, our cities, and our delusions of conquest.

The wolves are coming...

http://www.wolfcountry.net/information/myth_stories/wolves_are_coming.html

The wolves are coming.......POOFF
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Re: Eastern Caribbean Thread=Observations of T Wave effects

#773 Postby abajan » Sat Jul 18, 2009 10:04 pm

WeatherLovingDoc wrote:...Btw, I liked your post about imagining millions/trillions etc.. that you wrote a while back. Very insightful post. When I try to imagine trillions in life, I always think of "cells". lol.
Thanks for the compliment, WeatherLovingDoc. Btw, the weather here has settled down since my last post: No rain or wind but it must be overcast because I can't see a single star.
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Re: Eastern Caribbean Thread=Observations of T Wave effects

#774 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 19, 2009 6:25 am

Good morning fellow Caribbean friends.I didnt post more after my last post last night because the power went off as a big thunderstorm with gusty winds moved thru San Juan after around 11:30 PM.I was not expecting the sun to come out today,but here it is for now.I expect that as the day progress,PR will see showers and some gusts as the tail of the wave moves thru.
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Re: Eastern Caribbean Thread=Observations of T Wave effects

#775 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 19, 2009 6:25 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
324 AM AST SUN JUL 19 2009

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE UNITED STATES WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ADVANCING
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HAS RESULTED IN UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIR ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WHILE BRINGING WITH IT MUCH-NEEDED RELIEF
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES. MEANWHILE...A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MODELS
SHOW VERY LITTLE VARIABILITY OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINTAINING A SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS...TRANSPORTING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA.

LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE AN ADVANCING TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. CONVECTION BEHIND THE WAVE WAS
MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLIES DEPICTED ON THE LATEST 19/0000Z TJSJ RAOB AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY HAVE SINCE SHEARED THE TOPS FROM THE CONVECTION CREATING
ONLY DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.
THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE...CREATING HOSTILE CONDITIONS
FOR ANY TROPICAL SYSTEM TO DEVELOP. THEREFORE...AS INDICATED BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...ONLY A LOW CHANCE /LESS THAN 30
PERCENT/ EXISTS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

SEVERAL ARC CLOUDS AND BANDS OF PRECIPITATION HAVE PROCEEDED THE
WAVE YESTERDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THESE SHOWERS HAVE AFFECTED THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF PUERTO RICO. LUCKILY...THESE FEATURES HAVE
BEEN RACING IN THE FLOW AT 20-25 KNOTS...PREVENTING ANY WIDESPREAD
FLOODING FROM OCCURRING. THE SAHARAN DUST HAS RETREATED QUITE A BIT
ACCORDING TO LATEST SATELLITE TECHNIQUES AND LATEST SOUNDING
SHOWS THAT WHILE SIGNIFICANTLY DRY AIR CAN BE FOUND ABOVE 650
MB...NO MID-LEVEL INVERSION EXISTS. THIS PATTERN...COMBINED WITH
DEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. THE DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
ACTUALLY ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH. DRY AIR ENTRAINED WITHIN
STORMS TOPS ALLOWS MORE ICE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF ALOFT. THIS HAS
THE EFFECT OF CAUSING MORE FREQUENT LIGHTNING TO DEVELOP...AS WELL
AS DOWNDRAFT WINDS TO FORM /CAUSING POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS AT
THE SURFACE/.

THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE QUITE BULLISH WITH PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS...AS DECENT JET DYNAMICS AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENT SUPPORT
SEEMS COINCIDENT WITH THE WAVE...HOWEVER THE NEW MODEL RUN SLOWS
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE OVER PUERTO RICO UNTIL LATER IN
THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. ONE THING TO CONSIDER IS THE FACT
THAT VERY LITTLE LOW-LEVEL ACTIVITY AT THE PRESENT TIME MAY ALLOW
SIGNIFICANT DAYTIME HEATING TO OCCUR...ASSISTING WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER IN THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON PERIODS. WILL MAINTAIN FORECAST PACKAGE WITH
ONLY MINOR EDITS.

WINDS WITH THE GFS SEEM STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...AND THEREFORE
HAVE MAINTAINED THE WRF WIND PATTERN THROUGH THE EARLY
PERIODS...HOWEVER WINDS 1000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE ALREADY
MAINTAINING 20 KNOTS WITH GREATER WIND STRENGTH JUST ABOVE THAT.
IF A LOW DEVELOPS OVER PUERTO RICO AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS...WINDS
COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL TAF
SITES UNTIL 19/0900Z. AFTER 19/0900Z...OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR
OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS...MAY AFFECT TKPK AND TNCM. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD
WESTWARD ACROSS TISX AND TIST BY 19/1300Z AND LATER ON ACROSS THE
REST OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES...AS BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE JUST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. STRONG GUSTY LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS TIST/TISX SUNDAY EVENING. TJSJ 19/0000Z
SOUNDING INDICATED AN EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW...UP TO 25
KNOTS...ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 25K FEET...BECOMING
WESTERLY ABOVE THAT LEVEL.
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Re: Eastern Caribbean Thread=Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather

#776 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 19, 2009 7:35 am

97L has been reactivated east of the Windwards.Those who live in the Windwards,watch this wave closely as impact from it is around 30-40 hours away.
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Re: Eastern Caribbean Thread=Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather

#777 Postby bvigal » Sun Jul 19, 2009 8:43 am

Good morning, Luis! THANKS for the message invite to this thread!!
Good morning, neighbors, happy to see you all here!

I must apologize for being un-sociable this season, but I've been very sick last couple of months, twice in hospital. Slowly but surely, getting better. (More tests and a corrective surgery likely, as soon as I can find the money.) Big medical bills (no insurance) and lots of lost income, makes WORK the first priority for my limited daily energy! Internet, emails, housecleaning, clothes-washing - all on the back burner until reaching critical mass. Forum-reading has been something I could only dream of doing again when time permits.

It is so good to be here again!!
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Re: Eastern Caribbean Thread=Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather

#778 Postby Gustywind » Sun Jul 19, 2009 8:48 am

bvigal wrote:Good morning, Luis! THANKS for the message invite to this thread!!
Good morning, neighbors, happy to see you all here!

I must apologize for being un-sociable this season, but I've been very sick last couple of months, twice in hospital. Slowly but surely, getting better. (More tests and a corrective surgery likely, as soon as I can find the money.) Big medical bills (no insurance) and lots of lost income, makes WORK the first priority for my limited daily energy! Internet, emails, housecleaning, clothes-washing - all on the back burner until reaching critical mass. Forum-reading has been something I could only dream of doing again when time permits.

It is so good to be here again!!

Glad to see you in shape my bvigal and that's a very good news! :wink:
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#779 Postby Gustywind » Sun Jul 19, 2009 8:59 am

Nothing to bad yesterday night only some scattered showers in my location. I was on extreme east of Guadeloupe yesterday afternoon (Saint-François) and nothing to report except some gusts and light showers...
Seems that the system has been nicely sheared bringing less effects than predicted and that's good for us, just light amount of water for the moment as we're always in yellow alert but this should be disrupted by Meteo-France this morning.
Right now, weather is pretty cloudy, and a bit grey with very light showers wind is calm. Whereas, looking further east, another guest he's racing near the Windwards islands something to keep an eye...beacause of the relaxing upper levels winds and the environnement a little more conducive in terms of convection, just have to wait and see.
Nice regards from Guadeloupe
Gusty the wind and the Gustywind :lol: :oops: :wink: :)
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Re:

#780 Postby Gustywind » Sun Jul 19, 2009 9:02 am

HUC wrote:Hey,Gusty,Bulletin of Martinica at 1.30pm,call for a wave near TD stage !!!and they are in orange alert,due to very heavy rain received (113mm in some territories). Things need to be taking carefully...

Yeah i noticied that, damn it's incredible! Hopefully the outcome were not nasty HUC.
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