ATL: INVEST (97L)

[cycloneye]

You can go now to this thread at Talking Tropics forum about wave at Lesser Antilles.Or go to thread at Weather Attic forum for those who live in the Eastern Caribbean islands.

Talking Tropics thread.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=105877&hilit=&p=1893540#p1893540

Weather Attic thread for Eastern Caribbean members.

viewtopic.php?f=20&t=85676&hilit=&start=0

[Ed Mahmoud]

You can see the divergence in the cirrus of the L. Antilles wave. Cirrus on North side is blowing to the East-Northeast, on the South side, blowing off to the East-Southeast.

[Ed Mahmoud]

You can go now to this thread at Talking Tropics forum about wave at Lesser Antilles.Or go to thread at Weather Attic forum for those who live in the Eastern Caribbean islands.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=105877&hilit=&p=1893540#p1893540

Now you tell me.

[Sanibel]

I think the shear giveth and the shear taketh away with wave #1. The shear flared it up nicely and then proceeded to strip the convection off the surface feature.

97L has a surprising remaining rotation so we might see a repeat of its taking over the lead from wave #1 again like it did off Africa. The only reason we are seeing these things is because both storms are so weak.

[lester]

Oh boy,I didnt looked at the ATCF site before my last post.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al972009.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200907181944
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END


ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

another one bites the dust

[HURAKAN]

I'm shocked to see it being discontinued!!!

Where's 98L (or 95L or 96L for that matter!)?

[tailgater]

Poor 97 not getting any attenion. Just wait till tomorrow the peeps will be all over you.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

[Hyperstorm]

Invest 97L is firing up some interesting convection as of the last few hours. This wave seems to have some pronounced vorticity, which tends to develop rather quickly and unexpectedly if upper-level winds are not strong. We'll see how the upper winds behave over the next 12-18 hours. If they are not strong, I would expect a code orange or code red for probability of tropical cyclone formation.

[cycloneye]

I would not be surprised if this system organizes a little more,be tagged again as invest later today.

[cycloneye]

97L has been reactivated again

12 UTC Best Track

AL, 97, 2009071912, , BEST, 0, 124N, 502W, 20, 1013

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[cycloneye]

12:00 UTC Model plots for reinstalled 97L

WHXX01 KWBC 191217
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1217 UTC SUN JUL 19 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972009) 20090719 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090719 1200 090720 0000 090720 1200 090721 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.4N 50.2W 13.0N 54.0W 13.9N 58.2W 15.3N 62.2W
BAMD 12.4N 50.2W 12.5N 52.8W 12.7N 55.1W 13.1N 57.6W
BAMM 12.4N 50.2W 12.8N 53.1W 13.3N 56.2W 14.0N 59.2W
LBAR 12.4N 50.2W 12.6N 53.7W 12.9N 57.5W 13.6N 61.3W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 29KTS 32KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 29KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090721 1200 090722 1200 090723 1200 090724 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.6N 66.7W 19.8N 74.8W 22.9N 80.3W 25.4N 82.4W
BAMD 13.4N 60.5W 14.0N 67.8W 14.5N 76.1W 14.2N 84.8W
BAMM 14.9N 62.7W 17.1N 70.5W 19.3N 78.1W 20.8N 84.1W
LBAR 14.3N 65.3W 16.1N 72.7W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 35KTS 37KTS 42KTS 53KTS
DSHP 35KTS 37KTS 42KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.4N LONCUR = 50.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 46.2W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 42.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[KWT]

Yep looking better again and ir looksl ike it has some sort of circulation, what level I'm not sure though. Convection flared up last night and its held well so if it holds for another 6-9hrs I suspect the NHC will raise it to either orange and possibly even red.

[poof121]

It's definitely stacked with max vorticity up to 500 mb in the same spot.

850mb


700mb

500mb

[ronjon]

I'd say 97L has the best opportunity to be our first tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin this year. Nice convection core developing with some sort of circulation evident from SAT. Upper level conditions look favorable through the next 5 days as it tracks toward the NW caribbean. In a climatological favored area to develop in July near the southern Leeward Islands. I'd expect some recon flights to be scheduled in the next few days if convection persists. Where might it go after 5 days? The canadian sniffed out a solution from yesterdays runs where it developed a tropical cyclone near western Cuba and brought it north through FL. Not sure about that exact track, but judging by the trough forecast by GFS in 5 days over the northern gulf coast I think if this develops it gets pulled north into the central or eastern GOM.

Upper Level Wind forecast:


Trough forecast in 5 days:

[tailgater]

Looks like if there is a LLC forming it's well south of MLC

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc09/A ... .f13.x.85h

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 191056
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 7N TO 14N BETWEEN 45W AND 54W. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 49W AND
52W. MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN
44W AND 56W.

[boca]

Looks like if there is a LLC forming it's well south of MLC

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc09/A ... .f13.x.85h

The link doesn't work.

[poof121]

I expect we'll see GFDL and HWRF this time around...

[wxman57]

Don't get carried away yet, there's no evidence of any surface circulation. Obs indicate pressures are still rather high in the area, too (1015-1016mb). Easterly trades are quite brisk at 25 kts. It's something to keep an eye on, but it's not showing any signs of developing today:

[KWT]

Looks like the Caribbean may not be all that bad for development looking at the models, once you get to the NW Caribbean conditions look much worse but up till then shear isn't that bad. You can see the shear easing in the southern part of the Caribbean now as well.

Still got some way to go as wxman57 has said but its worth watching, esp given there isn't anything else to watch right now.