ATL: INVEST (97L)

[wxman57]

This would be amazing if it could develop under such hostile conditions...

Conditions aloft are not hostile at all now. It's a very small system, and shear is retreating to just north of the Caribbean in 24 hours. Though I don't think it has any LLC, it has a good mid-level spin, certainly. Lower-level winds in the Caribbean which had been approaching 50 kts (850mb) in recent weeks have calmed to 15-20 kts.

GFS, CMC and Euro all move the associated vorticity WNW across the northern Caribbean, eastern Cuba, then east of Florida toward the Carolinas in 5 days. Given the trof digging into the eastern U.S., that seems reasonable. I don't think it'll slip under the trof and continue westward. That trof will dig pretty far south into the southern Gulf (westerly winds 35-40 kts at 200mb just north of the Yucatan in 5 days).

But, for the next 2-3 days, it may remain small enough and stay far enough south for a decent shot at development. I'd expect NHC to go moderate chance on the next update, as I think it may well have a 40-50% shot now. Just a little better chance it won't develop. Beyond 2-3 days, it'll be fighting with land and then increasing shear.

[KWT]

It will be interesting to watch wxman57 in terms of track, thats what some of the models suggest but it'll be interesting to see if that what happens, esp given the broad region is heading pretty much due west still. Anyway you are right that trough does seem to dig pretty far down though whether or not its a little too extreme who knows.

It does look pretty good, I do think its got a decent chance of developing at the moment and the shear doesn't look too extreme so we shall see. There does seem to be a developing LLC as well so looks like this could be our next depression. MLC is quite obvious at the least on the Vis loops.

[wxman57]

Note that cloud tops have begun to warm over the MLC in the last hour or so.

Still no obs south of the disturbance. It'll be passing nearly directly over Barbados late tomorrow. And as it crosses into the eastern Caribbean on Tuesday morning we'll have plenty of obs south of the disturbance.

[abajan]

...It'll be passing nearly directly over Barbados late tomorrow...

That would be the biggest surprise for me because yesterday I thought it would surely be passing well north of here whether it developed or not. It will certainly be interesting to see what our meteorologist says on the TV weather news this evening.

[cycloneye]

Not too hostil shear in the Eastern Caribbean,if GFS is right.

24 hours



48 hours

[Blown Away]

IMO, 97L does not go past 80W. Shear on the Hispanola/E Cuba track will allow for development. As we all know very well over the past few seasons Hispanola will be very disruptive.

[Aric Dunn]

This would be amazing if it could develop under such hostile conditions...

Conditions aloft are not hostile at all now. It's a very small system, and shear is retreating to just north of the Caribbean in 24 hours. Though I don't think it has any LLC, it has a good mid-level spin, certainly. Lower-level winds in the Caribbean which had been approaching 50 kts (850mb) in recent weeks have calmed to 15-20 kts.

GFS, CMC and Euro all move the associated vorticity WNW across the northern Caribbean, eastern Cuba, then east of Florida toward the Carolinas in 5 days. Given the trof digging into the eastern U.S., that seems reasonable. I don't think it'll slip under the trof and continue westward. That trof will dig pretty far south into the southern Gulf (westerly winds 35-40 kts at 200mb just north of the Yucatan in 5 days).

But, for the next 2-3 days, it may remain small enough and stay far enough south for a decent shot at development. I'd expect NHC to go moderate chance on the next update, as I think it may well have a 40-50% shot now. Just a little better chance it won't develop. Beyond 2-3 days, it'll be fighting with land and then increasing shear.

sounds about right ..

its going to pulse like this a few times until a well established LLC is in place.. there is improved banding trying to take shape .. again the biggest problem it has right now is its forward speed..

[tailgater]

Clould tops warming A LOT and shear increasing in it's path.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=
Almost no chance of development in my very novice opinion, in the next 2 days.

[wxman57]

Clould tops warming A LOT and shear increasing in it's path.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=
Almost no chance of development in my very novice opinion, in the next 2 days.

Certainly has taken a little turn for the worse over the last few hours. But it may still have over a 30% chance of development.

[wxman57]

...It'll be passing nearly directly over Barbados late tomorrow...

That would be the biggest surprise for me because yesterday I thought it would surely be passing well north of here whether it developed or not. It will certainly be interesting to see what our meteorologist says on the TV weather news this evening.

Let us know what you see when it goes by. I suspect it'll just be a bit of rain and some gusty wind, common with any passing disturbance this time of year.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Clould tops warming A LOT and shear increasing in it's path.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=
Almost no chance of development in my very novice opinion, in the next 2 days.

Certainly has taken a little turn for the worse over the last few hours. But it may still have over a 30% chance of development.

On the bright side, the fizzling convection makes the MLC easier to see on IR satellite imagery.

[Aric Dunn]

Hot off the press.. lol this microwave shot was just about a hour ago.

the latest microwave image, and my analysis of whats going. I have mentioned that its forward speed is playing a role in closing off a surface low. This image attemps to show whats happening. I have drawn in black the developing low level banding that is slowly taking shape. The white circle is the area where we have light winds and thus no inflow both dew in part to the tiny remaining bits of the ITCZ but mostly its forward speed. To see this problem think of a car tire as it roles forward the part of the tire that is touching the ground is for a brief time not moving. well the same idea can be applied here but with a little more dynamics involved, but same concept. the inflow that would typically be coming into the system on the SW side is not transporting anything into the system leaving the circulation open and thus not allowing the pressure to fall a very fast, and without pressure falls and a closed circulation or wind field will very difficult to develop. so right now its forward motion is matching the flow on the south side essentially canceling out any inflow. this happens many times and typically they eventually closed off the wind field. So the white circle is light winds and very little inflow. if it were to slow down this problem would not exists and development would be quick.

original : http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc09/A ... W.91pc.jpg

[wxman57]

On the bright side, the fizzling convection makes the MLC easier to see on IR satellite imagery.

Yeah, the spin is always easier to see without all that pesky convection.

[Thunder44]

On visible loop. It looks to me that there is a LLC near 54.5W and 13N and it's racing ahead of the MLC back further SW:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Aric Dunn]

for the most part this buoy will be directly impacted next as the "center should pass right over or near it.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41101

its about 200 miles away from the best track position right now but the outer rain bands are starting to affect it now.. pressure are falling at the buoy, time of arrival is about 6 to 8 hours for the center to pass by..

[jinftl]

Do you mean it won't get past 80W because Hispanola would kill it off or it would recurve before 80W? What if it stays south of hispanola and does in fact develop (the 'if it develops' being a huge 'if')....but even as a wave, what would stop it from reaching 80W? check out latest model runs

:uarrow: IMO, 97L does not go past 80W. Shear on the Hispanola/E Cuba track will allow for development. As we all know very well over the past few seasons Hispanola will be very disruptive.

[Sanibel]

Could be busting open like wave #1.

[Aric Dunn]

on a side note the center is passing by this buoy straight too the south by about 200 miles the pressure as fallen all day at this buoy not much as its far away winds have been steady.. but now have switched from ENE to E .. so cant say too much about that but it says at leas that the wave axis is starting to pass by and that there is a circulation .. can say its closed till we get some more definitive obs from the south side or deep convection maintaining with distinct inflow in all quads.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41040

[Blown Away]

IMO, I believe that trough will dig deep enough to pick up 97L if it has developed and turn it N before reaching 80W. If it does not develope then I believe the wave will continue on a more W course.

[HURAKAN]

A first for me. I am posting from my sister's sidekick. I have been in the beach for the entire day but I have been lurking around in S2K to know what is happening with rejuvenated 97L. Great to see something worth tracking in the Atlantic.