ATL: INVEST (97L)

[cycloneye]

SSD Dvorak

19/2345 UTC 12.4N 53.5W T1.0/1.0 97L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

Position of SSD Dvorak confirms Best Track that is moving a little bit slower.

[wxman57]

WV loop indicates the trof to its west dug SE a bit this afternoon, imparting SW shear over the disturbance. That, combined with the ingestion of a bit of dry air has really put the hurt on it. Just shows you how fragile these systems can be.

[gatorcane]

WV loop indicates the trof to its west dug SE a bit this afternoon, imparting SW shear over the disturbance. That, combined with the ingestion of a bit of dry air has really put the hurt on it. Just shows you how fragile these systems can be.

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In just 6 hours the system has really lost convection. It did indeed surprise me today but due to increasing shear and lack of convection I still think it is doomed and no named storm will result. My forecast of no development still on track (with a slight bump from today). Climatology combined with shear winning the battle it seems.

[MGC]

Yep, shear is kicking 97L butt. Don't see a TC developing right now. Maybe when it gets to the WCarb Sea if it makes it......MGC

[Ed Mahmoud]

Coarser GFDL grid rainfall seems to suggest this heads for the Bahamas.

[wxman57]

It's fighting back. Some convection just re-fired around the MLC.

[Ivanhater]

[Ed Mahmoud]

Annoying jump on floater, so I made a new batch of NASA easy bake satellite loop cookies, this time IR.

[caribsue]

We have heard nothing from our local weather center here in Barbados and it looks as though this thing is on our doorstep, can someone let me know what we can expect here?

[Ed Mahmoud]

We have heard nothing from our local weather center here in Barbados and it looks as though this thing is on our doorstep, can someone let me know what we can expect here?

I'd say worst case, lower end tropical storm. Worst case. More likely typical squalls, maybe lasting a bit longer, a bit stronger, than a normal Summer time Easterly wave, but nothing too terrible. But even a garden variety thunderstorm could cause locally damaging gusts.

Mind you, I am an amateur, this is an unofficial forecast, and you should pay attention to local official sources, and maybe Derek and WxMan57, for advice and guidance.

[Derek Ortt]

this has about as much chance of developing now as Armstrong has of winning the tour... slim. Was not even mentioned in our Atlantic ocean tropical outlook this evening

[Derek Ortt]

based upon this, if this were to develop (unlikely) it would move west, but if it stays weak (as expected), it moves NW

[caribsue]

We have heard nothing from our local weather center here in Barbados and it looks as though this thing is on our doorstep, can someone let me know what we can expect here?

I'd say worst case, lower end tropical storm. Worst case. More likely typical squalls, maybe lasting a bit longer, a bit stronger, than a normal Summer time Easterly wave, but nothing too terrible. But even a garden variety thunderstorm could cause locally damaging gusts.

Mind you, I am an amateur, this is an unofficial forecast, and you should pay attention to local official sources, and maybe Derek and WxMan57, for advice and guidance.

Thanks Ed.... got a lot of work to do outdoors tomorrow, sounds like I may need to postpone it for a bit. Will stay tuned here in the interim.

[Ed Mahmoud]

based upon this, if this were to develop (unlikely) it would move west, but if it stays weak (as expected), it moves NW

An interesting reversal of the more usual course of events for a potential system developing in the Deep Tropics.

[ExBailbonds]

this has about as much chance of developing now as Armstrong has of winning the tour... slim. Was not even mentioned in our Atlantic ocean tropical outlook this evening

I would not write it off just yet this little guy surprised us all once allready.

[storm92405]

I could not find a Barbados weather Radar but found one out of Martinique. It can even be animated. This will be a good observation tool once 97L gets a little closer.

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

[Ed Mahmoud]

This reminds me of 94L last year, 3 times in 4 days I incorrectly (unofficially) predicted upgrade to TD or storm based on satellite appearance.


But last year wasn't an El Nino year. It did eventually develop, but I doubt this one ever does.

Cirrus outflow off cell West of MLC seems to suggest a dagger of shear approaching the MLC

[Ed Mahmoud]

. Ok, officially an El Nino year, but the ENSO thread points out SSTs over 3 month period and the pressure pattern Darwin-Tahiti doesn't exactly match a classic El Nino.


Still, it is July. I still say no development, unofficially.


But maybe the UKMO ACE of 60 (IIRC) and 3 to 9 storms will be a little off. Or maybe not.

[Gustywind]

I could not find a but found one out of Martinique. It can even be animated. This will be a good observation tool once 97L gets a little closer.

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

You have also this one : http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... C_car.html

[ExBailbonds]

This reminds me of 94L last year, 3 times in 4 days I incorrectly (unofficially) predicted upgrade to TD or storm based on satellite appearance.

Ya That sure was an intresting one. It could just never get going.