ATL: INVEST (97L)

[Blown Away]

There is a decent shot we will se Ana, not likely but possible. 97L has been a persistent wave and it appears the MLC has stayed intacted. The circulation has convection, I agree 97L is being sheared hard rate now. The shear forecast maps seem to show a reduction over the NE Caribbean over the next day. I would not be shocked if a TD or minimal TS comes from 97L. I'm staying w/ my original prediction that it will never make it past 80W.

[Sanibel]

50-50. It will pick up pace as it gets pushed through the Caribbean by the tropical easterlies. The more it persists the more chance it has to form.

[chris1985]

from Jeff Masters:

A strong tropical wave (97L) a few hundred miles east of Barbados in the Lesser Antilles Islands has grown less organized today as it tracks west at 15 - 20 mph. The wave is moving underneath an upper-level trough of low pressure, which is bringing 30 knots of wind shear to 97L. While there is a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 97L, there is no longer any low-level spiral banding or rotation of the cloud pattern. This morning's QuikSCAT pass at 5:35 am EDT showed sustained winds of 35 mph a few hundred miles east of Barbados, but there was no surface circulation evident. The islands of Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, St. Lucia, and Martinique can expect heavy rain and wind gusts to 50 mph as 97L moves through the Lesser Antilles Islands this afternoon and tonight, but 97L will not become a tropical depression. hmmm

Wind shear along the path of 97L is forecast to remain in the high 25 - 35 knot range for at least the next three days. This should prevent further development of 97L, and I expect the disturbance will be gradually torn apart during the next few days. The National Hurricane Center gives 97L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours. None of the computer models are forecasting any tropical storm development over the next seven days.

[cycloneye]

990
ABNT20 KNHC 201739
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Gustywind]

from Jeff Masters:

A strong tropical wave (97L) a few hundred miles east of Barbados in the Lesser Antilles Islands has grown less organized today as it tracks west at 15 - 20 mph. The wave is moving underneath an upper-level trough of low pressure, which is bringing 30 knots of wind shear to 97L. While there is a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 97L, there is no longer any low-level spiral banding or rotation of the cloud pattern. This morning's QuikSCAT pass at 5:35 am EDT showed sustained winds of 35 mph a few hundred miles east of Barbados, but there was no surface circulation evident. The islands of Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, St. Lucia, and Martinique can expect heavy rain and wind gusts to 50 mph as 97L moves through the Lesser Antilles Islands this afternoon and tonight, but 97L will not become a tropical depression. hmmm

Wind shear along the path of 97L is forecast to remain in the high 25 - 35 knot range for at least the next three days. This should prevent further development of 97L, and I expect the disturbance will be gradually torn apart during the next few days. The National Hurricane Center gives 97L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours. None of the computer models are forecasting any tropical storm development over the next seven days.

Tkanks but already posted by myself

[Gustywind]

Hurdles of shear, Olympics shear Games for 97L not easy...
From wunderground.com, Jeff Masters last update this morning
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1260
Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Last Updated: 13:51 GMT le 20 juillet 2009 — Last Comment: 13:55 GMT le 20 juillet 2009
High wind shear ripping into 97L


Posted by: JeffMasters, 13:49 GMT le 20 juillet 2009

A strong tropical wave (97L) a few hundred miles east of Barbados in the Lesser Antilles Islands has grown less organized today as it tracks west at 15 - 20 mph. The wave is moving underneath an upper-level trough of low pressure, which is bringing 30 knots of wind shear to the 97L. While there is a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 97L, there is no longer any low-level spiral banding or rotation of the cloud pattern. This morning's QuikSCAT pass at 5:35 am EDT showed sustained winds of 35 mph a few hundred miles east of Barbados, but there was no surface circulation evident. The islands of Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, St. Lucia, and Martinique can expect heavy rain and wind gusts to 50 mph as 97L moves through the Lesser Antilles Islands this afternoon and tonight, but 97L will not become a tropical depression.

Wind shear along the path of 97L is forecast to remain in the high 25 - 35 knot range for at least the next three days. This should prevent further development of 97L, and I expect the disturbance will be gradually torn apart during the next few days. The National Hurricane Center gives 97L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours. None of the computer models are forecasting any tropical storm development over the next seven days.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of African wave 97L.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning. As 97L moves through the islands, you may want to follow local observations there using our wundermap for the region.

Jeff Masters

[wxman57]

50-50. It will pick up pace as it gets pushed through the Caribbean by the tropical easterlies. The more it persists the more chance it has to form.

I think that's a bit high of an estimate. With shear also persisting, if not increasing with time, the chances of development are likely much less. Probably below 10% and likely below 5%.

[chris1985]

from Jeff Masters:

A strong tropical wave (97L) a few hundred miles east of Barbados in the Lesser Antilles Islands has grown less organized today as it tracks west at 15 - 20 mph. The wave is moving underneath an upper-level trough of low pressure, which is bringing 30 knots of wind shear to 97L. While there is a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 97L, there is no longer any low-level spiral banding or rotation of the cloud pattern. This morning's QuikSCAT pass at 5:35 am EDT showed sustained winds of 35 mph a few hundred miles east of Barbados, but there was no surface circulation evident. The islands of Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, St. Lucia, and Martinique can expect heavy rain and wind gusts to 50 mph as 97L moves through the Lesser Antilles Islands this afternoon and tonight, but 97L will not become a tropical depression. hmmm

Wind shear along the path of 97L is forecast to remain in the high 25 - 35 knot range for at least the next three days. This should prevent further development of 97L, and I expect the disturbance will be gradually torn apart during the next few days. The National Hurricane Center gives 97L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours. None of the computer models are forecasting any tropical storm development over the next seven days.

Tkanks but already posted by myself

oops newbie move

[Gustywind]

from Jeff Masters:

A strong tropical wave (97L) a few hundred miles east of Barbados in the Lesser Antilles Islands has grown less organized today as it tracks west at 15 - 20 mph. The wave is moving underneath an upper-level trough of low pressure, which is bringing 30 knots of wind shear to 97L. While there is a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 97L, there is no longer any low-level spiral banding or rotation of the cloud pattern. This morning's QuikSCAT pass at 5:35 am EDT showed sustained winds of 35 mph a few hundred miles east of Barbados, but there was no surface circulation evident. The islands of Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, St. Lucia, and Martinique can expect heavy rain and wind gusts to 50 mph as 97L moves through the Lesser Antilles Islands this afternoon and tonight, but 97L will not become a tropical depression. hmmm

Wind shear along the path of 97L is forecast to remain in the high 25 - 35 knot range for at least the next three days. This should prevent further development of 97L, and I expect the disturbance will be gradually torn apart during the next few days. The National Hurricane Center gives 97L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours. None of the computer models are forecasting any tropical storm development over the next seven days.

Tkanks but already posted by myself

oops newbie move

No problem my friend, glad to see your wish to keep us informed...

[Ed Mahmoud]

CMC doesn't disappoint

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 201749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...


A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 22 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IN
SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS AS WELL AS CYCLONIC TURNING
DEPICTED ON AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS AROUND 20/1000 UTC.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N
BETWEEN 55W-61W.


...DISCUSSION...

AS THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W IMPACTS THE LESSER ANTILLES...EXPECT INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/
TSTMS THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
$$
HUFFMAN

[lester]

^^^ i would like that setup..lol

[Blown Away]

Is the shear easing a little?? The clouds seem to be expanding alittle in the NW quadrent.

[cycloneye]

18 UTC Best Track

AL, 97, 2009072018, , BEST, 0, 134N, 596W, 25, 1010, DB

[cycloneye]

18 UTC Models

116
WHXX01 KWBC 201838
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1838 UTC MON JUL 20 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972009) 20090720 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090720 1800 090721 0600 090721 1800 090722 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.4N 59.6W 14.5N 63.9W 16.4N 68.0W 18.0N 71.9W
BAMD 13.4N 59.6W 13.7N 61.8W 14.2N 64.4W 15.0N 67.4W
BAMM 13.4N 59.6W 14.1N 62.7W 15.2N 66.0W 16.5N 69.3W
LBAR 13.4N 59.6W 14.0N 62.8W 15.1N 66.3W 16.3N 70.0W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 33KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090722 1800 090723 1800 090724 1800 090725 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.0N 75.6W 23.8N 80.0W 26.8N 80.0W 29.4N 76.9W
BAMD 15.8N 70.6W 17.2N 77.1W 17.4N 82.6W 16.9N 87.6W
BAMM 17.9N 72.7W 20.6N 78.3W 22.5N 81.0W 24.2N 82.3W
LBAR 18.1N 73.7W 21.5N 78.4W 30.5N 77.5W 37.1N 68.6W
SHIP 36KTS 41KTS 48KTS 57KTS
DSHP 36KTS 39KTS 32KTS 37KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.4N LONCUR = 59.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 19KT
LATM12 = 12.8N LONM12 = 55.7W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 52.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[x-y-no]

Is the shear easing a little?? The clouds seem to be expanding alittle in the NW quadrent.

CIMSS still analyzes 30 knots of shear impinging from the WNW - Considerably stronger shear just to the north of that.

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS gets into the fray showing 97L just off the Carolinas.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[x-y-no]

The ULL now centered at around 27.5N 59.0W has been tracking along westward in tandem with 97L, and the high over the Caribbean appears to be retreating WSW ... I think there's still some slight hope of better conditions in 24-48 hours so long as it keeps tracking mostly west. But if it tracks towards Puerto Rico then I think it's totally shredded by tomorrow, since that strong shear to the north isn't going away in the next day or two.

[BigA]

So now NOGAPS, GFS, and Canadian all hinting at development near the end of the week when the system moves near the Carolinas. A ways away, but decent model agreement for 5-6 days out.

[cpdaman]

14.5 N or so looking at floater ...........appears to be where the buzz saw shear is located

wether this weak low can get a touch further south of the ( buzzsaw line) or wether the shear lifts out a bit......seems to be a unresolved question