ATL: INVEST (97L)

[tanguy97]

Here in Guadeloupe, very gusty winds and rain starting

[cycloneye]

Welcome to storm2k.We have a thread at Weather Attic forum where you can post your observations of what is going on in Guadeloupe as many fellow Caribbean members are doing there.I will merge this thread with the invest 97L thread that is here.

Link to Eastern Caribbean Thread.

viewtopic.php?f=20&t=85676&hilit=&start=840

[Gustywind]

Here in Guadeloupe, very gusty winds and rain starting

Hi Tanguy, we have a special forum to discuss the weather in the Carib, so you can easily speak about the weather in Guadeloupe. I will be glad to discuss with as i'm from Guadeloupe too.

[Gustywind]

Welcome to storm2k.We have a thread at Weather Attic forum where you can post your observations of what is going on in Guadeloupe as many fellow Caribbean members are doing there.I will merge this thread with the invest 97L thread that is here.

Link to Eastern Caribbean Thread.

viewtopic.php?f=20&t=85676&hilit=&start=840

Ok you merge it,ok. You're speed Luis just time to finished to wrote and you merge it you quicker than a Cycloneye !

[Gustywind]

very gusty winds here in Guadeloupe and rain starting

Where are you in Guadeloupe? Which location?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Based on current poor appearance and analyzed shear, and lack of model excitement through 3 days, I say, stick a fork, at least until it is close to 75ºW, about 3 days.


Just squalls.


Looked darn close to being a TD yesterday, but all downhill since.

In 3 days, I think models and satellite will give an indication if this has any chance to be Ana, and whether Florida to Carolinas and maybe points North are in play.


Amateur and unofficial.

[cycloneye]

In one thing all can agree is that this system from the moment it rolled out of Africa,it has had a vigorous circulation,that has mantained,sometimes less strong,and other times stronger.The track also has been mainly westward since it left Africa which has helped a little to not get the brutal strong shear to the north.

Here is the pic I posted at the MDR thread last tuesday.

[Macrocane]

August is nearing, you can feel it in tha air

[Gustywind]

Tropical wave approaching the Antilles
Chris Dolce, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Jul. 20, 2009 2:03 pm ET
The tropics are quiet around the globe once again.
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurri ... om=hp_news

A tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles and will bring some showers and occasionally gusty winds to the islands today and tonight.

Strong upper-level winds are impacting this wave preventing it from developing.

This wave may bring some rain and gusty winds to Puerto Rico and the Turks and Caicos over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Although it has been a relatively slow start to the Atlantic hurricane season, the season is historically only about 13% complete at this time of year. In the active 2004 season (which produced four U.S. hurricane landfalls), the first storm was not named until August 1.

[cycloneye]

Hmmm St Lucia has west winds at last observation.

Code: Select all

Conditions at  Jul 20, 2009 - 04:00 PM EDTJul 20, 2009 - 03:00 PM CDTJul 20, 2009 - 02:00 PM MDTJul 20, 2009 - 01:00 PM PDTJul 20, 2009 - 12:00 PM ADTJul 20, 2009 - 11:00 AM HDT
2009.07.20 2000 UTC 
Wind  from the W (270 degrees) at 10 MPH (9 KT) 
Visibility  greater than 7 mile(s) 
Sky conditions  mostly cloudy 
Weather  Cumulonimbus clouds observed 
Temperature  80 F (27 C) 
Dew Point  77 F (25 C) 
Relative Humidity  88% 
Pressure (altimeter)  29.80 in. Hg (1009 hPa) 
ob  TLPL 202000Z 27009KT 9999 SCT018CB BKN020 27/25 Q1009 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=observations01

[wxman57]

Hmmm St Lucia has west winds at last observation.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=observations01

Don't read too much into one observation of a west wind when it's surrounded by stronger E and ESE winds (see below). That's clearly local terrain effects. There's no circulation at the surface, and even the mid-level circulation is gone now. Just a mess of collapsing storms with outflow boundaries now. Development is highly unlikely.

[MGC]

Shear still quite strong so 97L is just going to remain a area of disorganized convection at it trecks across the Caribbean. I don't see any development for several days. Might have a chance in the W Carb Sea later on......MGC

[cycloneye]

850 mb vorticity has increased.

[tailgater]

Hmmm St Lucia has west winds at last observation.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=observations01

Don't read too much into one observation of a west wind when it's surrounded by stronger E and ESE winds (see below). That's clearly local terrain effects. There's no circulation at the surface, and even the mid-level circulation is gone now. Just a mess of collapsing storms with outflow boundaries now. Development is highly unlikely.

It may have been a false reading but maybe not St Lucia saw the lowest pressure as this invest passed and from the animation of the radar down there, CIRC on RADAR shows it passing right over that island. And like 57 said a little lessening of the shear (tonite and early tomorrow I think) might help it get through the next high shear zone if it hasn't piled into CA by then. IMHO Novice

[Cookie]

this system is blowing my mind, I didn't realize how complex this all is and how fast things can improve and go down the pan!

[cpdaman]

looks to me like the ULL lifted a tad more NW this afternoon after a few hours lag time the shear is quieting down ...especially as 97L moves west to 60 longitude.....i think there is a 40% chance this can find a area of low enough shear to improve and about 15% chance we could get a TD out of this. The biggest wild card since i have been on storm 2k is shear forecasts......sure sometimes there is shear everywhere ...but alot of times there can be just enough break to let a system breathe.......and other times there can be a surpise little Ull that throws a fork in a intensification forecast.....but i believe that currently the shear is decreasing over this "mass of activity"

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

i look at the shear maps but often times they are not exact and a hundred miles difference here or there can mean a significant difference in impact on a system

[cycloneye]

Upper low is moving slowly NW.

[cycloneye]

268
ABNT20 KNHC 202337
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

[jinftl]

UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS


More favorable after the next couple of days?

268
ABNT20 KNHC 202337
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

[cycloneye]

HWRF has a little (weak TS) as it slams into Belize.GFDL has nothing.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation