ATL: INVEST (97L)

[jinftl]

Models moving whatever this system may be....chances are great that it will be nothing...around the ridge in the atlantic? Let's hope this is not a set-up for similar track patterns that we see in a month or 2...wouldn't be good for lots of folks....esp from Hispanola and Cuba to Florida and the Bahamas to the entire Atlantic seaboard.

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best Track

14.0N - 61.5W,1009 mbs

AL, 97, 2009072100, , BEST, 0, 140N, 615W, 25, 1009, DB,

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Models

WHXX01 KWBC 210036
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0036 UTC TUE JUL 21 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972009) 20090721 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090721 0000 090721 1200 090722 0000 090722 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 61.5W 15.4N 65.4W 17.2N 69.1W 19.1N 72.6W
BAMD 14.0N 61.5W 14.3N 63.8W 15.1N 66.5W 15.9N 69.5W
BAMM 14.0N 61.5W 14.9N 64.8W 16.2N 68.1W 17.7N 71.5W
LBAR 14.0N 61.5W 15.0N 64.8W 16.3N 68.4W 18.1N 72.1W
SHIP 25KTS 25KTS 25KTS 26KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 25KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090723 0000 090724 0000 090725 0000 090726 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.2N 75.5W 24.8N 78.2W 28.1N 77.3W 31.5N 73.9W
BAMD 16.7N 72.5W 17.8N 78.4W 18.0N 83.2W 17.7N 87.6W
BAMM 19.2N 74.4W 21.5N 78.5W 23.0N 80.6W 25.1N 81.7W
LBAR 20.0N 75.3W 24.5N 78.6W 30.2N 76.8W 34.6N 71.2W
SHIP 27KTS 33KTS 42KTS 49KTS
DSHP 28KTS 26KTS 30KTS 37KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.0N LONCUR = 61.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 19KT
LATM12 = 13.1N LONM12 = 57.6W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 19KT
LATM24 = 12.5N LONM24 = 54.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[MGC]

Yea, bring it up the EC....I'll be in VA Beach this weekend.....MGC

[tailgater]

Hot off the press 850 vorticity increasing a litle bit.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... om=Z&time=

[jinftl]

I wonder if the Gulf would provide a more favorable environment down the road for development?

[wxman57]

Bones has had about enough of this system. There's no more rotation, shear is high and convection is low. If you look at the MIMIC TPW loop you can see the moisture beginning to be drawn WNW-NW toward the upper trof along the east coast. This one's about dead:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

[tailgater]

Bones has had about enough of this system. There's no more rotation, shear is high and convection is low. If you look at the MIMIC TPW loop you can see the moisture beginning to be drawn WNW-NW toward the upper trof along the east coast. This one's about dead:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

I agree shear is high and convection low but the 850 vorticity is the highest it's been since invest status and looking at the MIMIC loop, moisture has increased today near the Invest.

[srainhoutx]

Bones has had about enough of this system. There's no more rotation, shear is high and convection is low. If you look at the MIMIC TPW loop you can see the moisture beginning to be drawn WNW-NW toward the upper trof along the east coast. This one's about dead:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

Oh, the horror...

[lrak]

Bones has had about enough of this system. There's no more rotation, shear is high and convection is low. If you look at the MIMIC TPW loop you can see the moisture beginning to be drawn WNW-NW toward the upper trof along the east coast. This one's about dead:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

That loop at the end looks like a mouth thats hungry in the caribbean, an eye in the gulf, and a mutant eye in the mid atlantic. The frown looks hungry.


Loop this one 30 fast, looks evil http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html caribbean looks mad with her vicious winds. I feel sorry for little 97.

[gatorcane]

Hot off the press 850 vorticity increasing a litle bit.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... om=Z&time=

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

It doesn't matter. Shear is not letting up anytime soon. Latest CIMSS shear analysis shows W to WNW shear at 40K+ across the entire Caribbean. It's not going to develop with that kind of shear no matter how much vorticity it tries to muster. Models continue to be against development.

It's time to start looking elsewhere. But the good news is that I can't find a model that wants to develop anything for the next 16 days. I think we are going through July without a single named system and probably into a good bit of August this time. Shear is the primary reason.

Bones is very close to coming out for 97L. I also expect 97L to be deactivated later tonight or tomorrow and code yellow dropped by tomorrow at this time.

[cycloneye]

But the good news is that I can't find a model that wants to develop anything for the next 16

You havent look at the 97L models thread at NOGAPS,CMC,GFS that have something off the Carolinas.

[CrazyC83]

It's sure doing a good job of surviving in consistently hostile conditions...

[wxman57]

It's sure doing a good job of surviving in consistently hostile conditions...

That's because it's a tropical wave. It can't get much weaker no matter how much shear hits it.

[gatorcane]

But the good news is that I can't find a model that wants to develop anything for the next 16

You havent look at the 97L models thread at NOGAPS,CMC,GFS that have something off the Carolinas.

Technically there is something but its rather weak and recurving or close to recurving away from the Carolinas out ahead of another trough set to approach the eastern CONUS. The CMC is a bit bullish I must say, not sure I put a whole lot into this model yet after the SW upgrade, I'd like to see it prove itself with some systems first. Chances of getting Anna though appear quite low through the rest of this month based on all model guidance I have seen. Of course things do change rapidly in the tropics so we can't be sure this far out, just my gut instinct at this point.

[tailgater]

Hot off the press 850 vorticity increasing a litle bit.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... om=Z&time=

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

It doesn't matter. Shear is not letting up anytime soon. Latest CIMSS shear analysis shows W to WNW shear at 40K+ across the entire Caribbean. It's not going to develop with that kind of shear no matter how much vorticity it tries to muster. Models continue to be against development.

It's time to start looking elsewhere. But the good news is that I can't find a model that wants to develop anything for the next 16 days. I think we are going through July without a single named system and probably into a good bit of August this time. Shear is the primary reason.

Bones is very close to coming out for 97L. I also expect 97L to be deactivated later tonight or tomorrow and code yellow dropped by tomorrow at this time.

DID NOT say it was developing just meant that it was hanging tough for now and that it isn't time to write it off YET.
Not yelling just trying to make a point. Shear will more than likely keep it from developing for the next 2 or 3 days but it does seem some of the models are trying to spin what's left of 97.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/d ... slp&loop=1
You can now see the naked swirl on IR in the extreme lower right corner. I'd would agree invest will probably be dropped tomorrow.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[tropicana]

Some rainfall (unofficial) figures from the Southern Caribbean today, thanks to Invest 97:-

Barbados:
Grantley Adams Airport 37mm
Chancery Lane (just SW of the airport) 41mm
Rockley, Christchurch (along south coast) 71mm (nearly 3 inches)

At Grantley Adams, the high temperature during the day was 26C (79F) but when the rain ended this evening, the temperatures rose to 27C (81F), relatively cool for mid-July for Barbados.

St Lucia:
Hewannora Airport 60mm (up to 8pm)

-justin

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

It appears to my amateur eye that shear should prevent development.
This is a true El Nino with shear- like 2006.
The East coast trough has sent a massive winter load of shear well into the tropical
zones.

- massive winter like
trough over the east...it will be down in the mid 60s over north central
FL tonight Arctic Blast LOL!

[Sanibel]

The Caribbean just stripped the top off 97L like it did wave #1.


Toast.

[cycloneye]

You can see the mass of showers and thunderstorms at the long range radar of San Juan.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes