somethin around bahamas (just east) RECON SCHED

[cpdaman]

there is a new little rotation around 26.5 72.5 appearing to move generally to the north.......not sure at what level but mabye someone could chirp in and tell me it's nothin much

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html convergence check

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor4.html 850 mb vorticity NO check

[vbhoutex]

there is a new little rotation around 26.5 72.5 appearing to move generally to the north.......not sure at what level but mabye someone could chirp in and tell me it's nothin much

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html convergence check

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor4.html 850 mb vorticity NO check

All I see is a flare up of thunderstorms, no rotation. "it's nothin' much".

[tailgater]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO TODAY AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES
IN THE AREA ARE HIGH...AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

This might be the northern end of the wave (#1) that preceded 97 looks very disorganized as of now.

[srainhoutx]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO TODAY AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES
IN THE AREA ARE HIGH...AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
This might be the northern end of the wave (#1) that preceded 97 looks very disorganized as of now.

May be our next Invest.

[wxman57]

It's the northern extent of the wave ahead of 97L interacting with the cold front. The storms are in the jet core associated with the front - very high shear. No development.

[srainhoutx]

It's the northern extent of the wave ahead of 97L interacting with the cold front. The storms are in the jet core associated with the front - very high shear. No development.

Still holding out for that office pool, are you. I guess it's August 8 or bust.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

This one is not developing either. Shear is a wrecking machine across much of the Atlantic at the moment -- but its still only July...

[StormTracker]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO TODAY AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES
IN THE AREA ARE HIGH...AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Sanibel]

Notice how that persistent trough steered the wave in recurve up the coast.

[senorpepr]

NOUS42 KNHC 211230
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0830 AM EDT TUE 21 JULY 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JULY 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-054

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 29N 76W AT 23/1800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[boca]

The tropical wave will stay to the east of Florida.Look at the water vapor

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[MGC]

If a low does form it will likely ride up the front IMO. Chances are small but there for a TC to form. MGC

[RevDodd]

Is that blob the same low that the GGEM rides up the Carolina coast?
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 12_084.jpg

[JonathanBelles]

That blob should ride the trough up the east coast into new england.

[Frank2]

This is from the mid-morning MIA WSFO discussion:

SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THAT A POSSIBLE
LOW DEVELOPING WITH THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THIS MORNING AS IT APPROACHES THE BAHAMA
ISLAND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THEN
SOUTH FLORIDA COULD BE ON THE DRIER SIDE OF THE LOW AND THIS COULD
RESULT IN LOWERING THE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IN THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

THIS COULD ALSO CHANGE THE WINDS SPEEDS AND DIRECTION OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA WATERS DEPENDING IF THE LOW DEVELOPS AND HOW CLOSE IT IS
TO SOUTH FLORIDA.

[lester]

That blob should ride the trough up the east coast into new england.

cool! hopefully i might get some clouds and wraparound showers

[JonathanBelles]

Good thing that blob isnt 50-150 miles west of where it is....otherwise FL wx would be a lot different!

[wxman57]

It's the northern extent of the wave ahead of 97L interacting with the cold front. The storms are in the jet core associated with the front - very high shear. No development.

Still holding out for that office pool, are you. I guess it's August 8 or bust.

You got it!

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

.


By Fri. this area and 97L will have merged into a moisture streak and potentially unnamed frontal low racing NE off of the New England coast which shouldn't impact land significantly (i.e. most of the weather should stay off into the Atlantic waters). No development expected still.

[HURAKAN]

"Looking better"