SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[vbhoutex]

This thread is so long that I didn't read every post. My question is if this is as hot as it's going to get all summer? My electric bill was decent, so figure it won't get any worse?

It's hard to tell. Normally August is our hottest month even though the hottest we've had in Houston was in September. IMO, we will see more of the same or maybe a few degrees hotter during August.

[SETXWXLADY]

Edited:
Sorry I asked a dumb question but figured it out. Lol. But speaking of rain chances, TWC extended 10 forecast shows rain or storms nearly everyday. With a 60% chance on Next Wednesday. Maybe some relief afte all.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Sprinkler comes back out if rainless again today.

My wife reported thunder yesterday, but not a drop.


Good storm at the Galleria, however.

[srainhoutx]

A little thunder and lightning an a few drops of rain from the CLL complex last evening at my location. Watching carefully as MSC/MSV will offer another chance later this evening for many, IMHO. Radar trends this morning are encouraging as echos show a nice moisture plume from our SW (VCT) to near LCH headed N with a boundry interaction set again. HGX has a very detailed AFD this morning...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
349 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...
IT HAS BEEN A WHILE FOR ME TO HAVE A FORECAST CHALLENGE MORE THAN
JUST UNDERSTANDING THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HOW
HOT IT WILL GET. THAT IS NOT THE CASE NOW AS UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE FORMER PESKY RIDGE OVER S CALI WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE APPALACHIAN MTNS. IN BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE...STRONG NW
FLOW ALOFT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION OVER
SE TX THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
SEVERE CONVECTION OVER OK WHICH SHOULD WORK INTO N TX LATER
TODAY. OUTFLOW FROM THIS CONVECTION ALONG WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA MAINLY FROM CALDWELL TO CROCKETT.

SPC SWODY1 HAS THIS AREA OUTLOOKED BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THE SEVERE THREAT WERE TO EXTEND A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. NONE OF
THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE DOING A PARTICULARLY BANG UP JOB WITH
HANDLING CONVECTION BUT WILL LEAN MORE ON MESOSCALE MODELS FOR
THE FORECAST IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE NSSL WRF-ARW AND
LOCAL HGX WRF-ARW ARE BOTH FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING A
LINE OF CONVECTION AFTER 21Z TODAY WHICH MARCHES THROUGH MUCH OF
SE TX THROUGH 03Z. EVEN THE 06Z NAM12 PEGS AN AREA NORTH OF I-10
WITH HIGHER PRECIP. FOR NOW I HAVE ALIGNED POPS WITH 50 TO THE
NORTH AND THEN 30/20 ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR MAY JUST BE ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND GIVEN
STRONG INSTABILITY...THERE IS CERTAINLY A CONCERN FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HAIL.

AFTER TODAY THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE IF YOU
WANTED TO PICK ONE. THE GFS/ECMWF 00Z RUNS SEEM TO HAVE A
REASONABLE ENOUGH SCENARIO IN THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME BUT THE
DETAILS OF CONVECTION AND EVOLUTION WILL BE A CONTINUAL PROBLEM.
AS SUCH IT LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXTEND THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. WED LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FRONT BEGINS TO WASH OUT SOME BUT POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ROTATE THROUGH TX. HIGHER POPS MAY BE NEEDED
THU BUT WILL STICK WITH 30S FOR NOW. FRI WILL KEEP 30 POPS AS
WELL GIVEN NW FLOW ALOFT...TROUGH AXIS AND THE BOUNDARY IN THE
REGION. SAT THE TROUGH AXIS ROTATES EAST OF THE REGION WHICH WILL
SUPPORT LARGE SCALE DESCENT AND SUBSIDENCE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MAY
THEN COME INTO THE PICTURE SUNDAY SO BROUGHT SOME 20 POPS BACK
INTO THE FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOES TRY TO MAKE A COME
BACK TO TX BUT SHOULD STAY ENOUGH WEST THAT IF NOTHING ELSE SEA
BREEZE CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY
BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE SINCE THE GFS/ECMWF DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER TX.

39/OVERPECK

[srainhoutx]

E-mail from Jeff Lindner just out...

After 56 days without rainfall…College Station was pounded last night for 2 hours with a severe thunderstorm. The 56 days without rainfall ties for the longest number of days without rainfall ever recorded at College Station. Easterwood Field recorded its first measureable rainfall at 740pm yesterday with heavy rainfall for over 2 hours. 2inches of rain fell at the airport setting a daily rainfall record (old record was 1.05 inches). Doppler Radar estimates between 4-6 inches of rain fell across the College Station area along with winds of 80-90mph causing property damage. That is one way to end a dry stretch…one extreme to the other!



Active weather pattern remains in place across the region with storms already ongoing in Fort Bend and Wharton counties this morning and a very large MCS dropping southward from N TX. Low level jet will be weakening in the next few hours and expect the N TX complex to weaken with a large outflow boundary moving southward into the area. Seabreeze will also begin its northward march from the coast as the surface heats creating a temperature contrast. Ongoing storms over N Fort Bend County will likely release a few outflow boundaries also….and if that was not enough several boundaries abound from yesterday.



Mesoscale models are in good agreement that incoming outflow boundary from the north will result in good thunderstorm coverage this afternoon. Expect the seabreeze and this boundary to collide somewhere across our central zones (Hwy 105 to I-10 area) by mid afternoon. This should result in rapid and sustained strong to severe thunderstorms which will then push southward under the northerly flow aloft. As we have seen the last two nights to our north and west some of these storms will produce damaging winds and hail. Models show the formation of a MCS over SE TX back into C TX this afternoon which then moves toward the coast by early evening. With fingers crossed this will bring widespread rains to the region…which have thus far been fairly scattered in nature. Will not disregard the potential of this moist air mass to produce a quick 3-5 inches of rainfall. We saw 12 inches yesterday just north of our area and then what happened last night in Brazos County. Flash Flood Guidance remains high and much of the rainfall will be absorbed except in urban areas where some minor flooding will be possible.



Pattern slowly transitions to more seabreeze driven afternoon/evening thunderstorms after today. Wednesday looks fairly active and then a taper down to our typical 20-30% for the rest of the week. Our summer death ridge out west attempts to build back eastward this weekend…but the global models are at odds on how far east it builds and how much influence it brings to bear on our rainfall chances. Feel for now that at least scattered seabreeze storms should develop each afternoon.

[Flyinman]

Well, looks like Jeff's email was right on. Everything has formed to the East near 105..At least my hometown looks like it will get wet.

[southerngale]

Just had a pretty strong thunderstorm. A warning came out a bit ago. It wasn't as intense as what we got a few days ago, but it was a little windy, with really heavy rain.

It's a rather long line, north to south... would be hard to miss anyone in the area.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC199-241-457-211930-
/O.NEW.KLCH.SV.W.0143.090721T1828Z-090721T1930Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
128 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF KOUNTZE...
JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF JASPER...
EASTERN TYLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...TOWN BLUFF...FRED...

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT

* AT 122 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF JASPER TO 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF FRED TO
KOUNTZE...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
TOWN BLUFF BY 135 PM CDT
SPURGER BY 135 PM CDT
FRED BY 140 PM CDT...
JASPER BY 150 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

[Yankeegirl]

it looked good eariler when it was out to the west of me, then it just went poof, and that it.... hasnt rained here since saturday....

[jasons2k]

it looked good eariler when it was out to the west of me, then it just went poof, and that it.... hasnt rained here since saturday....

I'm in the exact same boat. Looked like a nice cluster was trying to form near Lake Conroe earlier and move this way and POOF! I sure would like to be in the bullseye for a change.

[Yankeegirl]

I guess there is a dome sitting on top of harris county or something.... Seems like the storms just fizzle out when they get near the Houston area!! So irritating!!!

[Ptarmigan]

I guess there is a dome sitting on top of harris county or something.... Seems like the storms just fizzle out when they get near the Houston area!! So irritating!!!

Irritating is a understatement. We need cans of RAID to get rid of this pesky cockroach ridge.

[Flyinman]

I have been saying that for quite some time. It is actually quite fascinating, yet irritating, about the storms. I have seen this for over a year now. It seems if storms are coming from the North or West, as soon as they approach the Montgomery/Harris county line they begin to fizzle. I have also watched the weather even split around the area just to reform. To me it is more than just coincidence that this happens.

That being said, I sure hope today is our day!!

[jasons2k]

I hate to say it, but it really is just a coincidence. Over the long-term, it evens out across the area, with a gradient of higher amounts the further east you go. Any long-term rainfall map will show this.

It's just our human nature to focus on the times when everything seems to be going our way and it all falls apart at the last minute.

[Flyinman]

But this is The Woodlands..Can't they manufacter rain???

[srainhoutx]

Boundry to our N may just be the focal point today for some rain in our area today. I did find it "interesting" that EWX thinks convective temps are near 100 degrees though.

http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/sa ... &itype=vis

[jasons2k]

OK, so I've called two setups now in favor of us getting dumped on (at least most of us) and got burned both times. And both times I had my doubts as the seabreeze seemed to be racing inland much faster than the outflows & storms coming down from the north. There always seemed to be some inhibiting factor working against us but I glossed over that. I suppose finally seeing red on radar had me hoping for the best...*shrug*

Anyway, will today be our lucky day? I'm thinking so. The boundry to our north is a lot closer today and convection is initiating near Huntsville in an E-W line, slowly pressing SE. This is different than looking at convection near Tyler and hoping it eventually expands SW or looking at some dying MCS near DFW hoping a piece of it refires over us in the afternoon. It's finally at our doorstep where/when it needs to be without a bunch of overhead cirrus, etc., in the way.

Looking at the time of day, and the fact that south of this line is not tainted by other influences (thick cloud cover, more outflows, coastal storms, etc.) that could disrupt that nice warm/humid inflow, I think today will finally be our lucky day.

In other words, for the first time I don't see anything out there that could spoil the fun.

Let's see if the third time is a charm *crosses fingers*

[jasons2k]

Interesting tidbit from this morning's AFD:

.CLIMATE...
THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL THIS MORNING WAS
ONLY 81 DEGREES. THIS MARKS THE 10TH DAY IN JULY THAT A LOW
TEMPERATURE OF 80 DEGREES OR HIGHER HAS BEEN RECORDED IN HOUSTON.
THIS TIES THE RECORD FOR JULY SET IN 1963. SO FAR THIS SUMMER
THERE HAVE BEEN 13 DAYS WITH A LOW OF 80 DEGREES OR HIGHER...THE
FOURTH HIGHEST TOTAL ON RECORD. THROUGH YESTERDAY...THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE FOR JULY 2009 SO FAR IS 87.7 DEGREES WHICH STILL
RANKS AS THE HIGHEST OF ANY MONTH ON RECORD IN HOUSTON.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

One other note: the NWS seems to favor our eastern areas today since they are closer to the 850mb front/trough. I guess that could be considered an inhibitning factor for us but as long as there are cells firing-up west of I-45, I think odds are in our favor.

[srainhoutx]

I agree Jason. It does look as if we may have the best chance since Saturday for a MSC on our own doorstep. A little more heating may just fire this thing up. Fingers and toes crossed.

[jasons2k]

Hmm, convection to our due north and NW just does not seem eager to build right now. Maybe mid-level inflow has dropped-off now that heating is in full swing. Prob will have to wait a few more hours to see if the heating will create convergence at the surface level and storms to refire.

[Flyinman]

Looks like the area of weather in North and West Texas has been on the move the last couple of hours. Perhaps it might throw us a bone later on this evening for a chance. Yes I am kind of grasping but I will take anything at this point. Satellite view looks a bit promising.