The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.I wouldn't anticipate any development within the next 24 hours. The greatest vorticity is currently situated
immediately south of the Dominican Republic, Hispaniola. Yet, the majority of the convection in the vicinity of the low level vorticity lobe has been enhanced by the strong divergence between the low/mid levels. The strong mid level shear is the result of the deep tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) to the northeast of the system, as well as a pronounced 250 mb anticyclone to the southwest. These upper level features are quite apparent on
GOES WV imagery. Initially, any possible developing surface reflection (surface low pressure area) will remain influenced by the shear within the next 24-28 hours. However, by 24 hours, changes in the environment will be occurring. Firstly, the well defined upper level anticyclone near the northern Bahamas will expand eastward and amplify ahead of a
deepening mid/upper level shortwave over Manitoba. Consequently, the westerlies/northwesterlies that are currently coinciding with the location of the N Bahamas and W Atlantic will change to lighter southeasterlies at the low, mid, and upper levels. This environment was originally projected by the ECMWF, which consistently depicted medium/long range tropical cyclogenesis off the SE coast before the GFS even caught the development. Both models are currently consistent in regard to the development of a surface low off the NE Bahamas, followed by a track that parallels the Southeast. Based on the westerly steering ahead of the incoming shortwave, the system would remain off the SE and the East Coast of the United States. I think that the prospects of development are good, but I don't expect a system that exceeds moderate TS intensity.
Edited by Cycloneye to add disclaimer