Climatology as of July 31 = 7.1% of season done

[jinftl]

In the average season, the Atlantic has an ACE of 106 in total. As of July 31, the average season has accumulated 7.6 ACE out of that total, or 7.1%.

In other words, 92.9% of the season has typically yet to come by July 31. ACE is 0 as of today. A month from now, if it is still at 0, that is another story altogether, but jumping to conclusions about what the 2009 season will go down as in history when climatology says 7.1% is just about done would be like:

-calling a baseball game 2/3 of the way through the 1st inning

-calling a football game, 4.25 minutes into the 1st quarter

-reviewing a 2 hour movie as good or bad 8.5 minutes into it

-on a flight from Miami to New York , we would be over northern Palm Beach county


Source for ACE data: http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/

[Category 5]

This is the smartest post I've read in the last 2 months

[StormTracker]

Very well put J!!! My sentiments exactly! Thank you...ST

[cheezyWXguy]

In the average season, the Atlantic has an ACE of 106 in total. As of July 31, the average season has accumulated 7.6 ACE out of that total, or 7.1%.

In other words, 92.9% of the season has typically yet to come by July 31. ACE is 0 as of today. A month from now, if it is still at 0, that is another story altogether, but jumping to conclusions about what the 2009 season will go down as in history when climatology says 7.1% is just about done would be like:

-calling a baseball game 2/3 of the way through the 1st inning

-calling a football game, 4.25 minutes into the 1st quarter

-reviewing a 2 hour movie as good or bad 8.5 minutes into it

-on a flight from Miami to New York , we would be over northern Palm Beach county


Source for ACE data: http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/

I agree with all of that except, the movie part...I've seen some movies I had to call it on, only a few minutes in

nonetheless, you're completely right.



*edited by southerngale to take cheezyWXguy's post out of quote box

[southerngale]

Way to put it into perspective.

[KWT]

Very true we have only really just started the season but what is true also is that conditions still look pretty poor for development out there and so unless we get a surprise system (which you just can't rule out) we should get into August without anything, by which time the amount of the season gone starts to rise much more rapidly.

[DanKellFla]

Well said. I tried to explain that same thing to somebody but left out the concept of ACE. Which made it impossible for me to get my point across.

I knew Triple X with Vin Disel was going to be bad about 4 minutes into the movie.

[Stormcenter]

I hear you but in the same sense you pretty much know how a game is going to turn out most of the time just by how the first few minutes of the game start in any sport. So far IMO in this "football game" the Tropical Storms are down 21-0 with the 2nd quarter about to begin. Yeah it's early but I don't like my chances. Anyway as I've said before there WILL be storms but nothing like 2006. The key is where they form and end up.

In the average season, the Atlantic has an ACE of 106 in total. As of July 31, the average season has accumulated 7.6 ACE out of that total, or 7.1%.

In other words, 92.9% of the season has typically yet to come by July 31. ACE is 0 as of today. A month from now, if it is still at 0, that is another story altogether, but jumping to conclusions about what the 2009 season will go down as in history when climatology says 7.1% is just about done would be like:

-calling a baseball game 2/3 of the way through the 1st inning

-calling a football game, 4.25 minutes into the 1st quarter

-reviewing a 2 hour movie as good or bad 8.5 minutes into it

-on a flight from Miami to New York , we would be over northern Palm Beach county


Source for ACE data: http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/

[cheezyWXguy]

I hear you but in the same sense you pretty much know how a game is going to turn out most of the time just by how the first few minutes of the game start in any sport. So far IMO in this "football game" the Tropical Storms are down 21-0 with the 2nd quarter about to begin. Yeah it's early but I don't like my chances. Anyway as I've said before there WILL be storms but nothing like 2006. The key is where they form and end up.

You keep saying this, and I can't figure out what you're using to back it up. I guess you can pretend to know for sure that this season is going to be weak one if it makes you feel better, but that doesn't change the outcome. It may very well be a weak season, just like 2006, but on the other hand, it could just as easily be active. There's no way tell what's going to happen. Our ENSO is currently positive, and hell, our computer models cant even predict 4 or 5 days out accurately.

[HURAKAN]

I don't think shear will throw a perfect game within the hurricane season confines!*

* = Not including the May depression!

[Stormcenter]

You seem to believe I'm the only one that has talked about this (a slow season) but that
is not the case. It's been discussed all season by the experts. I'm not making that up. By the way I have yet to read anyone say this would be an active season. The bottom line is I did not say there would no activity only that there would less then normal.

I hear you but in the same sense you pretty much know how a game is going to turn out most of the time just by how the first few minutes of the game start in any sport. So far IMO in this "football game" the Tropical Storms are down 21-0 with the 2nd quarter about to begin. Yeah it's early but I don't like my chances. Anyway as I've said before there WILL be storms but nothing like 2006. The key is where they form and end up.

You keep saying this, and I can't figure out what you're using to back it up. I guess you can pretend to know for sure that this season is going to be weak one if it makes you feel better, but that doesn't change the outcome. It may very well be a weak season, just like 2006, but on the other hand, it could just as easily be active. There's no way tell what's going to happen. Our ENSO is currently positive, and hell, our computer models cant even predict 4 or 5 days out accurately.

[senorpepr]

I hear you but in the same sense you pretty much know how a game is going to turn out most of the time just by how the first few minutes of the game start in any sport. So far IMO in this "football game" the Tropical Storms are down 21-0 with the 2nd quarter about to begin. Yeah it's early but I don't like my chances. Anyway as I've said before there WILL be storms but nothing like 2006. The key is where they form and end up.

Let me put a twist on the numbers.

Looking at raw numbers (TS and greater) and comparing the amount of activity that would normally be expected... we are at 13% through the season.

Statistically, we should have had 1.25 named storms, 0.77 hurricanes, and 0.3 major hurricanes.

So going back to the football reference coupled with the stats above, we're almost 8 minutes through the first quarter and the score is 7-0 (one could make a case for 10-0).

Since 1975, 10 seasons have had later starts... about 30%. Climatologically speaking, average is 9.6 named storms in a season. Out of those 10 seasons, three had less than nine named storms total (30%); one had ten named storms (10%); the rest (60%) had 12 or more named storms. (125% to 144% of the climatological quota.)

If you want to skew the numbers to 1995-current standards... the normal is 14.9 named storms with a standard deviation of 4.7. Of those 10 late blooming seasons, 4 were below average when taking standard deviation into effect (10 or less; 40%) while the other 60% still met average.

Matter of fact, two of those years we reached the "N" name while two other years we reached the "O" name. Not too shabby in my opinion.

[tolakram]

If this was a Cincinnati Bengals game the season would be over at this point.

[senorpepr]

If this was a Cincinnati Bengals game the season would be over at this point.

touché

[Macrocane]

I am one of those that think that this season will be one of the least active since this phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation began. I agree we're on the first few minutes of the game, but it seems that the playing field is in poor conditions and the players are injured and I'm not talking about the Atlantic only, we're slow in the Pacific too. I know mother nature gives us surprises and if this season turns active (especially the Atlantic) I will be very surprised

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Now I am NOT an expert- but just based on the amount of shear
and TUTT out there I feel that is year should be pretty quiet which is
very good news especially for Ike recoverers.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=
Looks like some kind of trough over the whole basin.

I think we may get something like 2006, with storms
further out over the central atlantic, bermuda-ish area (total
guess) but that large jet-like thing over the entire northern and central
basin should keep activity down.

Of course if there is a sudden change and the Atlantic goes 2004
on us then I will be wrong. But I don't think that will happen
because I don't remember a jet/trough whatever that thing is being
on top of the whole top of the basin in 2004.

[KWT]

Yeah in terms of sports comprasion, as someone else said its like starting the game but your playing with your side much weakened then it normally is, thats what this season is. You can still win but odds are against you.

Another question for everyone, out of the slow starting seasons, what ones where El Nino and how many storms did those seasons go on to have.

I tend to think we are now very close to the middle part of the season where a good 80% happens usually, indeed I doubt this season is different.

[jinftl]

Sure, using the sports anology, teams go into a game being favored to win or lose....based on how the two teams match up in strengths and weaknesses. But until the game is over....the final outcome is not going to be known. Things happen, including unexpected turns of events.

I think we have been conditioned to use 2005 as the benchmark against which to compare seasons....that is just not reasonable to do. Whether it is 7% of ACE or 13% of named storms by the end of next week in a typical season, the story has not been written for the rest of 2009. In fact, the fact that 13% of named storms occur by July 31 account for only 7% of the average ACE shows one important fact....the stronger storms take place after July 31.....they would have to, to make up the rest of the ACE lag to # of storms!

All it will take...and i write this with dread at just imagining this scenario....is a system to be in the wrong place at the wrong time and bypass shear, SAL, and who knows what else, and this could go down as a horrific season for some unlucky part of the coast. Even if we end up with 1 hurricane for the whole season. Examples....a storm going from Cat 1 to Cat 5 when 12 hours off Miami heading right for the Miami-Dade/Broward line.....a large Cat 3 developing over the Loop Current and attempting to finish what Katrina started in New Orleans....a large Cat 2 that isn't taken seriously bearing down in a surge prone area....pick the location. Shear lets up....systems get vented when in one location in relation to a trough or low that would punish them if somewhere else....and the last time I checked, water temps were running normal to above throughout the basin.

It may very well be a quite season compared to recent ones, but whether you want to go with 7% or 13% or whatever number in between....certainly not 80% (80% of the season will be over in late September....not late July), climatology dictates the heart of the season has not arrived. For that reason, there is no reason to believe we will continue to have no development for the rest of the season. That assumption has no basis in fact or history...it is based on beliefs and opinions, the intent of this thread was to look at facts on where climatology says we are as of July 31 on average, not make forecasts.

[KWT]

jinftl, your certainly right about that big one, I think we have seen in countless seasons strong systems develop in what is otherwise a weak season...sometimes there are also upsets, I'd describe 2004 as one such year, maybe also 2002 thanks to that impressive September it had.

[CrazyC83]

I do agree that things look right for a quieter-than-normal season. The area that seems most conducive for development right now is the subtropical Atlantic - off the east coast and in the deep Atlantic.

But remember, IT ONLY TAKES ONE. We could have only one storm all year - but what if that one is a Category 5 that hits a heavily populated area?