WPAC: 91W

[theavocado]

ABPW10 PGTW 252200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/252200Z-260600ZJUL2009//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
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(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.7N 160.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 370 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A POCKET OF DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER A
LLCC WITH CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVERGENT FLOW INTO THE CENTER. A 241843Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS LINES
OF FRAGMENTED CONVECTION CONVERGING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE LLCC ALONG WITH POCKETS OF CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. A 241924Z
QUIKSCAT PASS RESOLVES THE SYSTEM AS AN OPEN WAVE WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT
UNFLAGGED WINDS. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD REGION OF WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING
ASSOCIATED WITH A MONSOON TROUGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
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[theavocado]

This image probably makes it look better than it is. The system is still an open wave, but appears to have a closed circulation, possibly at the mid-level.

[HURAKAN]

Not bad.

[Macrocane]

It looks better than any of the invest that we have seen this season in the Atlantic.

[HURAKAN]

Doesn't look that good now.

[HURAKAN]

Poof!

[theavocado]

Apparently it went up to FAIR, but now it's back down to POOR.

ABPW10 PGTW 270600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/270600Z-280600ZJUL2009//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.6N
158.9E, IS NOW NEAR 17.0N 154.1E, APPROXIMATELY 600 NM NORTH-
NORHTEAST OF CHUUK. A DISTINCT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
HAS YET TO BE CONFIRMED WITH MICROWAVE AND/OR SCATTEROMETRY DATA
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. IN FACT, QUIKSCAT CONTINUES TO RESOLVE A
WEAK WAVE FEATURE COMBINED WITH NEARBY SURFACE CONVERGENCE.
CONVECTION IS ALSO HIGHLY UNORGANIZED AND HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY
LINEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR SINCE THERE IS NO
EVIDENCE OF A LLCC OR SIGNS OF CONSOLIDATION.
<cut>