Global model runs discussion

[gatorcane]

The ECMWF and GFS long-range show a trough along the Eastern CONUS forming in about 5-7 days again, so looks like we are going back to the pattern that has dominated this summer and keeps Cape Verde systems away from the Eastern CONUS. It would allow WCAR systems to potentially threaten but so far el nino is taking care of that.

[cycloneye]

GFS trys to develop a wave (The one emerging now) in the Eastern Atlantic,but it does not last long.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078l.gif

[cyclonic chronic]

gfs hinting at develepment in 60 hrs or so. dont know if this is the wave out in the centreal atl. or the huge one about to exit africa.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Boy you know S2k boards are scraping the bottom of the barrel when the hottest topic is the 7-14 day models

hoping for NO storms this year.

[Macrocane]

Boy you know S2k boards are scraping the bottom of the barrel when the hottest topic is the 7-14 day models

hoping for NO storms this year.

So if you don't like tropical cyclones, Why are you participating on this forum? Just curious, no offense.

[Ed Mahmoud]

gfs hinting at develepment in 60 hrs or so. dont know if this is the wave out in the centreal atl. or the huge one about to exit africa.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Reaching, a weak system that weakens further as it heads Northwest, already well North of the latitude of the Greater Antilles in a week.


You can't see it at all in SLP at Hour 168, but weakening 850 mb feature can be seen.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Boy you know S2k boards are scraping the bottom of the barrel when the hottest topic is the 7-14 day models

hoping for NO storms this year.

So if you don't like tropical cyclones, Why are you participating on this forum? Just curious, no offense.

If we broke the 1914 record of 1 storm, or at least the modern 1983 record, it is like witnessing a no hitter. A perfect game.

No fear, climate models seem to suggest we'll be in a neutral or cool ENSO condition next season. 2010 could be a very busy season.

[cycloneye]

It looks like the models are turning on the switch in the EPAC once again.

The 7/29/09 12z CMC has nada in the Atlantic,but has a hurricane in the EPAC. The EURO also had a hurricane on last nights 00z run.

[killah]

Boy you know S2k boards are scraping the bottom of the barrel when the hottest topic is the 7-14 day models

hoping for NO storms this year.

Me too! I still come in and check in to see what is going on with the model runs. They have some really good posters here and I don't post much because there are too many already, it just makes white noise. But now, with not a whole lot going on with regards to the tropics, I will post every once in a while.

[cycloneye]

The 12z EURO has a major hurricane in the EPAC.In the Atlantic is zip!

12z ECMWF

[Ed Mahmoud]

The 12z EURO has a major hurricane in the EPAC.In the Atlantic is zip!

12z ECMWF

On the Hawaii thread I noted it appears the ridge is building Westward. Maybe just 2 weeks from heavy Storm2K thread action on the Hawai'ian tropics?


I went to Hawai'i 3 times in the Navy, so I have skin in that game.

[cycloneye]

Some may be asking,why I dont post the 18z and 06z runs more.Those runs dont have all the data that the 00z and 12z runs have.That is why we see different scenarios as the runs come in the distint timeframes. Until we see a consistent scenario about a system that shows the same in the tracks and intensity in all four runs per day,all the rest is a guessing game.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Boy you know S2k boards are scraping the bottom of the barrel when the hottest topic is the 7-14 day models

hoping for NO storms this year.

So if you don't like tropical cyclones, Why are you participating on this forum? Just curious, no offense.

Is this for real? Do you know what its like to be in a storm? Im just curouis. It sounds like you do not because it is a miserable expierence. Between the looting, heat and loss of property. My annual presence on S2k is educational and keeping myself looking 2 weeks ahead. I do not enjoy watching these storms destroy lives or property. No storms please!

[Macrocane]

Is this for real? Do you know what its like to be in a storm? Im just curouis. It sounds like you do not because it is a miserable expierence. Between the looting, heat and loss of property. My annual presence on S2k is educational and keeping myself looking 2 weeks ahead. I do not enjoy watching these storms destroy lives or property. No storms please!

But you can have storms and little damage as in 2006 (Alberto and Ernesto may be the exceptions), we could enjoy this beautiful nature's wonders if they do not make landfall. Obviously an active season means more probabilities of storms making landfall, but as I've said before we could have an average season with little or no damage. By the way, I've been in some disasters as hurricane Mitch, the rains spawned by the large cyclonic circulation related to Stan and two major earthquakes in 2001, so I get your point and thanks for the answer.

[Macrocane]

Back on topic, the ECMWF has been developing a system in the Central Pacific since last week, the other models were in agreement but they dropped the system later, so if 97E develops I will trust the ECMWF for the rest f the season (it also worked well predicting the development of Andres and Carlos). And I'm waiting for that major hurricane on the EPAC too.

[cycloneye]

Back on topic, the ECMWF has been developing a system in the Central Pacific since last week, the other models were in agreement but they dropped the system later, so if 97E develops I will trust the ECMWF for the rest f the season (it also worked well predicting the development of Andres and Carlos). And I'm waiting for that major hurricane on the EPAC too.

I agree that the ECMWF has been the stellar model of 2009.I am eagered to see the first scenarios for the Atlantic from the model,not just little L,s.

[KWT]

I'm not sure about the Atlantic but the ECM has been very good indeed, its probably overdone a few systems but apart from that its done well.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS shows a tropical wave developing just east of 40W at 168 hours and track it to the fishes.CMC doesnt have anything.Also to note,GFS relaxes the high pressure in the Atlantic.See whole 12z run at loop below.



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Ed Mahmoud]

At 180 hours, no reason why GFS depression wouldn't head generally Westward.




At 216 hours, after the lobotomy, potential Ana has found a weakness in the ridge and is heading for the East Coast trough.



But, IIRC, the GFS has a bias of recurving systems to quickly, so while a fish storm is the norm, it isn't guaranteed.

For that matter, with the Canadian not excited, development isn't a sure thing.

[wxman57]

12z GFS shows a tropical wave developing just east of 40W at 168 hours and track it to the fishes.... snip

Yeah, I see. Right around August 8th...