Disturbance fizzeled in Eastern Atlantic

[wxman57]

Here's a good site to keep track of low to mid-level circulation in waves. It's the MIMIC TPW imagery at CIMMS. The reddish-brown is low to mid-level moisture, the blue is dry air. We have been studying this imagery (see the link to archived data from 2007-2008 below the animation) for early signs of potential development. Go back to around August 25th of 2008 to see what was to become Ike move off the coast. Frequently, prior to development, a large waves move offshore and clears out all the dry air. Will that happen this time? Probably not with the next wave to emerge, but maybe in another week.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

[HurricaneBelle]

My amateur and unofficial prediction:


Poofation.

I think the scientific term for that is poofogenesis.

[Gustywind]

My amateur and unofficial prediction:


Poofation.

I think the scientific term for that is poofogenesis.

here is the new dictionnary

[cycloneye]

The wave has now splashed entirely into the water.If there is something to look at in terms of a weak circulation,it may be located just off the coastline.See image at first post of thread.

As I said from my first post,I only made this thread to follow this wave,and not to say it may develop or not as I haved not said a word about that.

[Gustywind]

Quiet tropics for now
Chris Dolce, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Jul. 29, 2009 1:13 pm ET
The Atlantic basin remains quiet.

Three tropical waves are spaced out from the western Caribbean to the far eastern Atlantic. Little, if any, shower and thunderstorm activity is associated with these features and development is not expected.
The middle tropical wave is approaching the Windward Islands. Some showers and clouds are possible over these islands.

At this time, it appears the Atlantic Basin will not see its first named storm before August 1st. This is not too uncommon, as about 25% of the time the first named storm does not occur until August. The last time this happened was 2004 when Alex was named on the first day in August.http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurricanecentral/update/index.html?from=hp_news

[cycloneye]

Quiet tropics for now
Chris Dolce, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Jul. 29, 2009 1:13 pm ET
The Atlantic basin remains quiet.

Three tropical waves are spaced out from the western Caribbean to the far eastern Atlantic. Little, if any, shower and thunderstorm activity is associated with these features and development is not expected.
The middle tropical wave is approaching the Windward Islands. Some showers and clouds are possible over these islands.

At this time, it appears the Atlantic Basin will not see its first named storm before August 1st. This is not too uncommon, as about 25% of the time the first named storm does not occur until August. The last time this happened was 2004 when Alex was named on the first day in August.http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurricanecentral/update/index.html?from=hp_news

They dont mention this new wave yet as it has not been introduced by TPC.Lets see if the 18z or the 00z surface analysis has this system classified as a Tropical Wave.

[Gustywind]

Quiet tropics for now
Chris Dolce, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Jul. 29, 2009 1:13 pm ET
The Atlantic basin remains quiet.

Three tropical waves are spaced out from the western Caribbean to the far eastern Atlantic. Little, if any, shower and thunderstorm activity is associated with these features and development is not expected.
The middle tropical wave is approaching the Windward Islands. Some showers and clouds are possible over these islands.

At this time, it appears the Atlantic Basin will not see its first named storm before August 1st. This is not too uncommon, as about 25% of the time the first named storm does not occur until August. The last time this happened was 2004 when Alex was named on the first day in August.http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurricanecentral/update/index.html?from=hp_news

They dont mention this new wave yet as it has not been introduced by TPC.Lets see if the 18z or the 00z surface analysis has this system classified as a Tropical Wave.

Absolutely, let's see that...

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS briefly closes off a low. Shear looks reasonable, system seems under a weak upper anticyclone. But it never really develops, opens back up, in fact, maybe because 700-500 mb mean layer relative humidity is rather low.

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 292330
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

The only mention about this area is in the ITCZ section of the 8 PM Discussion.

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 11N27W 9N40W 11N57W
10N64W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 14W-18W.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[cycloneye]

Convection has increased a bit as the disturbance splashed completly into the water.I dont know what will happen tomorrow,but as of this moment (11:10 PM EDT) it looks fairly interesting.

This image updates every half an hour.Click symbol to see closeup.

[brunota2003]

Splish splash I was taking a bath, all on a Wednesday night...

[boca]

[Gustywind]

Tropics remain quiet
Wayne Verno, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Jul. 30, 2009 5:48 am ET
The tropical Atlantic basin remains quiet.

Satellite imagery was tracking a large area of dust which came off Africa, that is now moving west across the tropical Atlantic. These areas of dust are not uncommon, but typically help to suppress any tropical development.

Tropical waves currently tracking from just south of the Cape Verde Islands, are feeling the impacts of this dust as they are tending to weekend about midway across the Atlantic.

Given this pattern the Atlantic should remain rather quiet for the next several days.
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurri ... om=hp_news

[cycloneye]

As this area has not been introduced yet as a Tropical Wave,I call it a disturbance.I wonder if the big convective with a low to the NE will absorb the one in the water.

[Gustywind]

As this area has not been introduced yet as a Tropical Wave,so I call it a disturbance.I wonder if the big convective with a low to the NE will absorb the one in the water.

Yeah it's the good question

[Gustywind]

Given this sat pic SAL is diminishing steadily allowing maybe for more conducive conditions during the next couple of days...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... plitE&time

[Gustywind]

Just offshore...

[wxman57]

It's not offshore yet. Check the MIMIC TPW loop:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

Here's the latest still image. You can start to see the western edge of the wave starting to emerge off the west coast of Africa. In the loop above, note the pocket of very dry air plunging south down the west coast of Africa right in front of the wave that's about to emerge.

[cycloneye]

I changed the title of thread to reflect what 57 told us above.The area offshore and the wave about to emerge haved been close all the time and that caused me to make this thread as a large area of disturbed weather.