CPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANA (06E)

[cycloneye]

Finnally a new invest for the EPAC.But not for much time as the CPAC is awaiting it shortly.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep972009.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200907292313
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 97, 2009, DB, O, 2009073000, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP972009
EP, 97, 2009073000, , BEST, 0, 120N, 1350W, 25, 0, DB,
EP, 97, 2009072900, , BEST, 0, 109N, 1300W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 97, 2009072906, , BEST, 0, 110N, 1312W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 97, 2009072912, , BEST, 0, 110N, 1325W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 97, 2009072918, , BEST, 0, 110N, 1340W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 97, 2009073000, , BEST, 0, 112N, 1356W, 25, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[brunota2003]

So the EPac wins this time

[cycloneye]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 292330
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1420 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[KWT]

Another large wave it appears that is very spread out. Suspect this one will be rather slow to develop though it looks decent enough in terms of convection for now.

[cycloneye]

Not a bad looking system but as KWT said,it has work to do in the organization.

[cycloneye]

First model plots

The first model plots for 97E has only one model going to Hawaii.

CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0043 UTC THU JUL 30 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP972009) 20090730 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090730 0000 090730 1200 090731 0000 090731 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.2N 135.6W 11.7N 138.3W 12.3N 141.0W 12.9N 143.5W
BAMD 11.2N 135.6W 11.5N 138.3W 12.0N 141.2W 12.6N 144.1W
BAMM 11.2N 135.6W 11.5N 138.3W 11.8N 141.1W 12.3N 143.9W
LBAR 11.2N 135.6W 11.4N 138.4W 11.9N 141.4W 12.2N 144.5W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090801 0000 090802 0000 090803 0000 090804 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 146.1W 14.9N 151.4W 16.6N 156.7W 18.3N 162.0W
BAMD 13.4N 146.9W 15.2N 151.5W 17.8N 154.9W 21.0N 157.1W
BAMM 12.8N 146.7W 14.4N 151.7W 16.0N 156.0W 17.7N 160.0W
LBAR 12.2N 147.6W 11.4N 153.0W 10.3N 156.9W 7.3N 158.2W
SHIP 49KTS 51KTS 42KTS 35KTS
DSHP 49KTS 51KTS 42KTS 35KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.2N LONCUR = 135.6W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 132.5W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 10.9N LONM24 = 130.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[HURAKAN]

Looking good.

[cycloneye]

If this disturbance organizes into a Tropical Cyclone,it will be the first one in the Central Pacific basin in 2009,doing so before the Atlantic gets its first.

[clfenwi]

If this disturbance organizes into a Tropical Cyclone,it will be the first one in the Central Pacific basin in 2009,doing so before the Atlantic gets its first.

For those wondering....

... The last time the Central Pacific had a named storm before the Atlantic was 2000 (TS Upana was so named on July 20, while Alberto was named August 5).

Also, in 2004, there was a tropcial depression in the Central Pacific on July 4th, before Atlantic TD1 (future Alex) on July 31.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 15
TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

More deep convection.

[cycloneye]

Code Orange

234
ABPZ20 KNHC 301147
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST ABOUT 15 MPH AND
WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY LATER TODAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG

[HURAKAN]

Almost at 140W already.

[cycloneye]

It will be 92C or TD One-C this afternoon.

[HURAKAN]

I'm going for TD 1-C. Looking better and better.

[HURAKAN]

The ULL over Hawaii is now providing outflow but later it may create enough shear to disrupt 97W.

[HURAKAN]

Becoming more concentrated

[Ed Mahmoud]

Near miss on the Big Island...


per GFDL

[CrazyC83]

If it develops, the race is on to determine where it becomes a storm - would it be Enrique or Lana?

What happens if it is determined that it operationally became a storm after 140W, but the best track backs it up to before 140W, does it keep the CPac name?

[cycloneye]

12 UTC Best Track

Has not reached 140W.

EP, 97, 2009073012, , BEST, 0, 115N, 1389W, 30, 1008, DB