Disturbance fizzeled in Eastern Atlantic

[Gustywind]

It's not offshore yet. Check the MIMIC TPW loop:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

Here's the latest still image. You can start to see the western edge of the wave starting to emerge off the west coast of Africa. In the loop above, note the pocket of very dry air plunging south down the west coast of Africa right in front of the wave that's about to emerge.

Disculpeme (excuse me) Weatherxman57, i noticied that after the link above, when i said just offshore that means just start to, all is ok.

[Sanibel]

Looks like dry subsidence is still prevailing. The waves could have slightly better form but they are still being dried right out. Perhaps another week of this negativity would be a fair guess. Deadsville all the way across.

[cycloneye]

Dakar,in Senegal has west winds in their observations indicative of a low pressure to their NNE.

Code: Select all

Current Weather Conditions:
Dakar / Yoff, Senegal 
(GOOY) 14-44N 017-30W 24M 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Conditions at  Jul 30, 2009 - 02:00 PM EDTJul 30, 2009 - 01:00 PM CDTJul 30, 2009 - 12:00 PM MDTJul 30, 2009 - 11:00 AM PDTJul 30, 2009 - 10:00 AM ADTJul 30, 2009 - 09:00 AM HDT
2009.07.30 1800 UTC 
Wind  from the W (280 degrees) at 8 MPH (7 KT) (direction variable) 
Visibility  greater than 7 mile(s) 
Sky conditions  mostly clear 
Temperature  84 F (29 C) 
Dew Point  75 F (24 C) 
Relative Humidity  74% 
Pressure (altimeter)  29.88 in. Hg (1012 hPa) 
ob  GOOY 301800Z 28007KT 240V330 9999 FEW013 29/24 Q1012 NOSIG 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
24 Hour Summary   
 Time
EDT (UTC)  Temperature
F (C)  Dew Point
F (C)  Pressure
Inches (hPa)  Wind
MPH  Weather
Latest 2 PM (18) Jul 30 84 (29) 75 (24) 29.88 (1012) W 8 
 1 PM (17) Jul 30 86 (30) 75 (24) 29.88 (1012) WNW 7 
 Noon (16) Jul 30 86 (30) 75 (24) 29.88 (1012) WNW 7


http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/GOOY.html

[Ed Mahmoud]

To ask a WxMan57 type question, do we know that the West wind isn't a microclimate kind of sea-breeze thing? Do winds usually blow from East to West when a tropical wave isn't passing North of Dakar?


Or do we have a real low level feature?

[wxman57]

To ask a WxMan57 type question, do we know that the West wind isn't a microclimate kind of sea-breeze thing? Do winds usually blow from East to West when a tropical wave isn't passing North of Dakar?


Or do we have a real low level feature?

Yeah! The only way to find out is to open up GARP and run a plot of west Africa surface obs with a satellite overlay. So I did. As you can see, the winds are out of the west along the west coast of Africa from 5N to 20N. Ships (purple plots) indicate northerly flow down the west coast of Africa (typical). So there appears to be no surface circulation. In addition, convection is falling apart as dry air sinks southward down the coast of Africa.

Oh, and you can now see that wave moving off the west coast of Africa on MIMIC imagery. Lots of dry air surrounding it:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

[cycloneye]

Many may ask,why I am making a thread about something that is inside the African continent.My answer is that first is the biggest system so far this year inside that continent.Second,waves in front of it will moist the air causing less sal disruptions than what all the waves so far in 2009 haved endured.Third,there is some model support although not a unity consensus and not a strong system.Also,and this is the main purpose of me doing this thread,climatology favors things to start to develop in the Tropical Atlantic as the calender turns to August.Will this develop into a Tropical Cyclone or nothing will come out of it? To find out,lets follow it here.

The above is my first post of this thread.If anything comes out of this large area,then this thread will go down the pages.As you can read above,at any moment I said this was going to develop into a tropical cyclone,but only to follow it.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

" The above is my first post of this thread.If anything comes out of this large area,then this thread will go down the pages.As you can read above,at any moment I said this was going to develop into a tropical cyclone,but only to follow it. "

Thank you for starting this thread, Cycloneye. As a relative new student of tropical weather, it helps to learn how to track east Atlantic waves west, and reinforce how SAL, SST, dry air affects them. Bridging with the fine work by experts on how to interpret satellite pictures superimposed on obs and their commentary, it's a great way to synthesize the beginnings (or not) of a wave.

WLD

[Ed Mahmoud]

I don't have a GARP to open.



Time to see if the Euro destroys Hawai'i in super-low graphics resolution...


ETA:

An open wave with 30 knot winds is passing just South of Hawai'i in less than 3 days.

Very weak low, not symmetrical, 850 mb winds less than 30 knots August 5th African coast time, looks kind of like the monsoon trough, nothing much develops from it.


September, maybe?

[wxman57]

I don't have a GARP to open.

Being a pro has its advantages. Looks like that storm will pass well south of Hawaii in a few days.

[Gustywind]

New tropical depression in the Pacific
John Desjardins, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Jul. 30, 2009 12:50 pm ET

Farther east in the Atlantic, a weak tropical wave is located west of the Cape Verde Islands, but is not expected to develop.
It appears as if July will pass without a tropical cyclone forming in the Atlantic basin.
The last year an Atlantic hurricane season started without a depression forming until August was 1992. But that turned out to be Hurricane Andrew.
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurri ... om=hp_news

[wxman57]

New tropical depression in the Pacific
John Desjardins, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Jul. 30, 2009 12:50 pm ET

Farther east in the Atlantic, a weak tropical wave is located west of the Cape Verde Islands, but is not expected to develop.
It appears as if July will pass without a tropical cyclone forming in the Atlantic basin.
The last year an Atlantic hurricane season started without a depression forming until August was 1992. But that turned out to be Hurricane Andrew.
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurri ... om=hp_news

Can't really use 1992 as an example, as it had a subtropical storm in April. Such storms are named now, so Andrew would have been named "Bonnie".

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

There was no named storm until 18Z on August 1st in 2004, when TD #1 became Alex.

[HurricaneJoe22]

I think I've seen Derek Ortt say Andrew might have been the "D" storm by today's naming standards because of some systems that formed before it.

[banksmanforever]

A huge wave is coming off Africa

[Gustywind]

Wayne Verno, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Jul. 31, 2009 4:44 am ET

The remainder of the Atlantic remains quiet.

It appears as if [color=#FF0000]July will pass without a tropical cyclone forming in the Atlantic basin. The last year an Atlantic hurricane season started without a depression forming until August was 1992. But that turned out to be Hurricane Andrew.[/color]
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurri ... om=hp_news

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 311044
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W TO THE SOUTH OF 22N
MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KT. THE POSITION WAS MOVED A BIT MORE TO
THE WEST IN ORDER TO AGREE MORE WITH THE SHORTWAVE INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N
TO 22N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 14N17W TO 11N30W TO 11N41W 10N50W
TO TRINIDAD/EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST
OF AFRICA FROM 8.5N TO 14.5N...AND WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 12N23W 9N30W 9N42W 7N48W 8N55W...AND FROM COASTAL
VENEZUELA TO 13N BETWEEN 63W AND 66W.

[HurricaneBelle]

New tropical depression in the Pacific
John Desjardins, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Jul. 30, 2009 12:50 pm ET

Farther east in the Atlantic, a weak tropical wave is located west of the Cape Verde Islands, but is not expected to develop.
It appears as if July will pass without a tropical cyclone forming in the Atlantic basin.
The last year an Atlantic hurricane season started without a depression forming until August was 1992. But that turned out to be Hurricane Andrew.
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurri ... om=hp_news

We've already had a depression this year in the Atlantic.

[wxman57]

Not so impressive today. Still west winds all along coast of Africa. Not much convection:

[CaribJam]

This forum offers many significant benefits to us (as well as our families and friends) in the caribbean who are constantly informed about any probability or likelihood of bad weather or (worst case) hurricanes affecting us.

Consequently, any semblance of cloudiness that is about to, or has entered the caribbean gets our immediate interest, especially during the hurricane season. IF NO POST is observed relating to these "disburbances", it is likely that I will ask the PROS to give their expert comments.

In short, on the behalf of the amatuers in the caribbean who access this forum, we are very grateful for all, and any, comments made about "disturbances" approaching us. We are particularly overjoyed when they dissipitate before reaching land, or just give us enough rain to refresh the vegetation.

THANK YOU ALL FOR YOUR CONTINUED INTERESTING POSTS/INFORMATION.

Keep up the good work.

[Gustywind]

This forum offers many significant benefits to us (as well as our families and friends) in the caribbean who are constantly informed about any probability or likelihood of bad weather or (worst case) hurricanes affecting us.

Consequently, any semblance of cloudiness that is about to, or has entered the caribbean gets our immediate interest, especially during the hurricane season. IF NO POST is observed relating to these "disburbances", it is likely that I will ask the PROS to give their expert comments.

In short, on the behalf of the amatuers in the caribbean who access this forum, we are very grateful for all, and any, comments made about "disturbances" approaching us. We are particularly overjoyed when they dissipitate before reaching land, or just give us enough rain to refresh the vegetation.

THANK YOU ALL FOR YOUR CONTINUED INTERESTING POSTS/INFORMATION.

Keep up the good work.

Tkanks for this nice post i appreciate your reasoning

[tolakram]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... litE&time=



Doesn't look good for anything to form.