Global model runs discussion

[Ed Mahmoud]

12z GFS shows a tropical wave developing just east of 40W at 168 hours and track it to the fishes.... snip

Yeah, I see. Right around August 8th...

If the Canadian isn't predicting it, it is darned unlikely.


I think, now that I have lost, I will cheer on the September people in the poll. I think they have a real shot.

[tolakram]

Canadian changed this year, don't forget. It may have a negative bias now.

[Agua]

Without going through the entire thread, any guess as to how many TCs have been generated by the models this season?

[cycloneye]

Without going through the entire thread, any guess as to how many TCs have been generated by the models this season?

GFS wins the prize of forming more TCs than any other model this year.Its hard to get a count of how many.

[cycloneye]

Nothing of interest from the models for the next 10 days.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Wild unscientific speculation. 3 storms, 1 or 2 hurricanes, 1 major.


But with three coasts, if anybody gets hit (outside the CPAC), its Florida.


Just in time for college football season, postponing someone's first game. The U? UF? Free Shoes U? Quien sabes?

[Frank2]

Nothing of interest from the models for the next 10 days.

Thanks for letting us know...

Frank

[Ed Mahmoud]

Nothing of interest from the models for the next 10 days.

Thanks for letting us know...

Frank

I believe both the GFS and Canadian take the barest hint of low level vorticity near 45ºW, just some low clouds, embedded in very dry air, not a hint of a shower, and in just one week develop a weak wave, with a subtle cuvature to a surface isobar, with scattered showers (per GFS) in the Western Gulf in just 7 to 8 days.

OK, not a tropical depression or anything, but in this UKMO 3-9 storm season, maximum ennui except maybe for Hawai'i, well, there is all sorts of action, if one doesn't get expectations to high, to be found in the models.


JB says a chance of a storm August 10th to 25th, but he said that about the second half of June, and a season potentially quieter than 1983, is one you can tell your grand kids about.

Exciting in a 1-0 baseball game with one of the pitchers throwing a no-hitter kind of way.

[Macrocane]

The Atlantic is so boring at this time and I don't think it will be active at least in the next 2 weeks, but the WPAC is another story, take a look at the ECMWF, it predicts that at least 3 cyclones could develop on the next 72-240, that will be an interesting scenario.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!Asia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2009073100!!/



The CMC is in agreement.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMCTROPWPAC_0z/cmcloop.html

[cycloneye]

Ding,dog,ding,dong,ding,dong! One model steps ahead in its 12z run to show a tropical storm in the Eastern Atlantic.Reallity or only noise?

12z CMC

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

132 hours

[Derek Ortt]

GFS also has the same system developing around the same time period

[floridasun78]

how go is nam for tropical? it forecast a wave to be over islands by next week?

[WeatherLovingDoc]

A copy and paste from a recent Dr. Wxman57 post:

"Here's a good site to keep track of low to mid-level circulation in waves. It's the MIMIC TPW imagery at CIMMS. The reddish-brown is low to mid-level moisture, the blue is dry air..."

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/main.html

Might help out here.

WLD

[cycloneye]

GFS develops the wave that will emerge Africa tonight or tommorow.It tracks it north of the Antilles but does not reach the U.S. east coast.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

CMC also develops it.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Gustywind]

Looking at the previous posts, things are trying to heat up during the next 8 days...

[cycloneye]

The 12z GFS has backed down a little as it has a weaker system than the past 2 runs.But interesting that the track is more to the Westnorthwest than Northwest.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

The 12z CMC continues to show a CV system,but a little more weaker than the past 00z run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[CourierPR]

The 12z GFS has backed down a little as it has a weaker system than the past 2 runs.But interesting that the track is more to the Westnorthwest than Northwest.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

The 12z CMC continues to show a CV system,but a little more weaker than the past 00z run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

That more westerly course may be due to a weaker system.
Barry

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET shows a weak system until around 40W.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[jinftl]

More than one specific system developing, there seems to be some indication that as we move into the extended period (beyond 10 days), that some of the conditions that have been hostile for development may in fact ease up some....perhaps a lessening of the shear that has persisted, a weakening of the SAL, obviously continued warming of the water temps....put these all together, and it would suggest that right on cue, as we move through August the likelihood for development ramps up steeply.

Note that from June 1 thru late July, there is essentially a plateau of limited development.....that changes significantly over the next 6 weeks. But make no mistake, the number of storms per 100 years on August 1 is still not 'peak season'...in fact it is comparable to the number of storms in early November climatologically per the chart below:

Looking at the previous posts, things are trying to heat up during the next 8 days...

[Derek Ortt]

thought the UKMET was not being plotted on that page anymore. Doesn't show up on the main page