Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

Hey gang,lets watch the wave that will emerge Africa tommorow as the models are semi bullish developing it.

Absolutely Cycloneye, i tkink that you could (if necessary and if it's allowed) put the models here if the East Carib is on the path of a possible feature at least as an Invest status? I wonder this question...just a proposition.
Tkanks.
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Tommorow should be a interesting weatherwise day in the islands with the wave passage and to watch what is going on in the far Eastern Atlantic.

Good night to all.

[cycloneye]

Good morning toall the fellow Caribbean members.Wave passage today thru the Eastern Caribbean and keeping an eye on what is going on off Africa are the storys for today.

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 020913
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
513 AM AST SUN AUG 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 60 DEGREES WEST EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY AND
THEN PASS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. AFTER
A BRIEF BAND OF SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE WAVE EARLY
TODAY...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL MOVE INTO/ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY AFTERNOON AND WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND
FAIRLY FAVORABLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...TO PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM
THE LOCAL AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
INITIALLY LINGERING BEHIND IT...TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL...CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEN...FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY THURSDAY...
EXPECT OCCASIONAL PATCHES AND BANDS OF MOISTURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND INTERACT WITH LOCAL EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE
CLIMO-TYPE CONDITIONS...WITH DIURNALLY/NOCTURNALLY INDUCED AREAS
OF CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH QUICK PASSING
SHOWERS AND VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE VI...TJSJ AND TJBQ
THROUGH 13Z IN AN ENE WIND FLOW NEAR 15 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES AFTER 13Z...WITH A VCSH OR VCTS
POSSIBLE NEAR TJMZ FROM 18-22Z.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THERE IS
A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES FOR TODAY.

[knotimpaired]

At least we will have a good morning. The radar is basically clear right now

[Gustywind]

Hi everybody hope you're in shape. Morning to all . We have a milkshake of smiles and good humor to give you! Stay zen and relax you're in the TENT More showers and moisture today for the islands seems highly possible as Meteo-France Martinica and Guadeloupe have confirmed this in their latest weather forecast.
Elsewhere, as Cycloneye mentionned it in the last post, the activity of the typically twaves from Africa should be monitored...
Showers in vicinity of the East Carib

[Gustywind]

At least we will have a good morning. The radar is basically clear right now

Hi my friend, good morning to you and glad to see you, come aboard

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 020800
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
400 AM AST SUN AUG 2 2009

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS...WITH NO SHOWER ACTIVITY
DETECTED OVER LAND. THE WINDS HAVE REMAINED EASTERLY NEAR 10 MPH
SO FAR THIS MORNING.

MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY...LIKELY HELPING TO TRIGGER MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY.
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL OFFSHORE WATERS AND CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES...WHERE WINDS WILL BE UP TO 18 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET.

$$

SR

[Gustywind]

Looking closely at Africa

[Gustywind]

Suddenly the weather has deteriorated, nice showers are back right now in my location, but wind is calm in a moist atmosphere.

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 021454
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1054 AM AST SUN AUG 2 2009

CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS A
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. SHOWERS WERE ALSO OBSERVED
ENCROACHING ON THE AREA FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST...SOME WITH BRIEF
BUT HEAVY RAINS JUST NORTH OF SAINT JOHN AT 10:50 AM AST. BY 11 PM
NO RAIN HAD YET FALLEN TODAY...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND WINDS WERE 15 TO 20
MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY...BRINGING MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AS THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSES LATER TONIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE WAVE ON MONDAY AS WELL.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL OFFSHORE WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES...
WHERE WINDS WILL BE UP TO 18 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET.

$$

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1221 PM AST SUN AUG 2 2009

.UPDATE...A POSITIVELY TILTED TROPICAL WAVE IS CONTINUING TO
APPROACH THE AREA WITH THE BEST CONVECTION...AT THE MOMENT...AHEAD OF
THE WAVE AND OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SOME CONVECTION IS MOVING
ACROSS BEEF ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS AT MIDDAY.
EXAMINATION OF THE MODELS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SEEMS TO SHOW THAT
THE WAVE IS NOT PARTICULARLY COHERENT...THAT IS THE CYCLONIC
CURVATURES OF THE WIND FLOW AT EACH LATITUDE DO NOT LINE UP VERY
WELL AND MAY EVEN BE MOVING AT DIFFERENT SPEEDS. THIS MAY EXPLAIN
WHY THE WAVE IS NOT VERY EFFECTIVE AT PRODUCING RAINFALL GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND RAPID MOVEMENT OF 20-23 KNOTS.
IT MAY ALSO EXPLAIN WHY LOCATING THE WAVE HAS NOT BEEN
PARTICULARLY EASY. UP TO NOW IT HAS BEEN EASIEST TO FOLLOW THE
NORTHERN VORTICITY CENTER WHICH SHOULD PASS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
AROUND 6 AM AST MONDAY AND 2 TO 3 HOURS EARLIER FOR SAINT THOMAS.
THIS HAS NOT BEEN THE WETTEST AREA OF THE WAVE...HOWEVER...AND
PASSAGE OF THE WAVE WILL LIKELY NOT COINCIDE WITH THE MOST SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES BANDS OF MOISTURE THROUGH FROM THE
NORTHEAST...BUT SURFACE FLOW BEING FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL FAVOR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST FOR NOCTURNAL RAINS BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST BEGINNING ON MONDAY.

[Gustywind]

Sun is back after a nice passage of showers this morning and i'm glad to see that

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 021858
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST SUN AUG 2 2009

SKIES WERE VARIABLY CLOUDY IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
TODAY...FIRST CLOUDY IN SAINT THOMAS THEN CLEARING...THEN CLOUDY
IN SAINT CROIX AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING. ALTHOUGH STREAMERS
LEFT HEAVY RAINS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE ISLANDS...AT THE AIRPORTS...ONLY
FREDERIKSTED PICKED UP A MEASURABLE AMOUNT...ONE ONE HUNDREDTH OF
AN INCH. MORE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

TEMPERATURES REACHED 89 DEGREES ON SAINT CROIX AND 91 ON SAINT
THOMAS WHICH WARMED IN THE EASTERLY WINDS IN SPITE OF BROKEN CLOUD
COVER AROUND MIDDAY.

MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW...BUT
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED AT BEST WITH NO LARGE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL OFFSHORE WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES...
WHERE WINDS WILL BE UP TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET.

$$

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST SUN AUG 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO REMAIN THERE FOR FEW DAYS AS IT IS
TRAPPED BY AN UPPER TROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER
HIGH NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS.

AT MID LEVELS...EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BE DOMINATING THE LOCAL
AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL...WHILE FEW INVERTED TROUGHS CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

AT LOW LEVELS...AN EASTERLY AFRICAN WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS. AFTER THAT...THE TURN CORRESPOND TO PUERTO RICO AND THE REST
OF THE AREA WATERS TO BE AFFECTED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD. THIS WAVE WILL EXIT THE REGIONAL WATERS MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THE WAVE COULD ENHANCE
SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS FOR MOST
OF MONDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS
SOUTHWARD TO ALMOST TRINIDAD. THIS WAVE WILL BE AFFECTING THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ADJACENT SMALLER ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND 20 TO 25 WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD AS SHOWERS MOVE BY.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE ACROSS
THE ISLANDS.

FOR PUERTO RICO...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROPICAL WAVE COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE EASTERN PART OF THE ISLAND
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
CONCENTRATE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL
MUNICIPALITIES AND SOME AREAS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR.

LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN
MIND...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN ON
MONDAY...BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE ISLAND AS THE STEERING FLOW CHANCES FROM THE
NORTHEAST (TODAY) TO EAST SOUTHEAST (TOMORROW).

ANALYZING SATELLITE PHOTOS THIS AFTERNOON AND COMPARING THEM TO 12Z
GFS AND NAM12 OUTPUT...THE NAM12 HAS A BETTER SOLUTION OF THE
LOCATION AND WEATHER RELATED TO THE WAVE. THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD
AND POPULATED NAM12 WINDS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AFTER
THAT...USED BLEND MODEL TOOL FROM DAY 2 TO DAY 5.

LOOKS LIKE THE WIND WILL INCREASE A BIT LATE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS.
HOWEVER...THEY WILL STAY WITHIN THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH REGIME.

TUESDAY COULD BE A TRANSITION DAY...WHILE AS OF NOW...WED AND THU
MAY RESULT RELATIVELY DRY FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH QUICK PASSING
SHOWERS AND VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE VI...AND TJSJ. AS
A TROPICAL WAVE PASSES THROUGH PUERTO RICO AROUND 03/10Z...MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PRECEDE AND FOLLOW WITH MORE FREQUENT
MVFR...BUT WITH VFR STILL PREVAILING. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEAST AFTER 03/10Z.

[knotimpaired]

I have to tell you it is drop dead gorgeous here on Vieques with nary a cloud in the sky.

Earlier around 11 we took a drive around the island and we did have some rain returning from the south coast to back up here to the north coast. Although the north coast never received any.

But tomorrow is another day, so hopefully we will finally get some rain here. We have a acre and personally we are getting tired of watering.

[msbee]

It rained on the French side of St. Maarten. but not the Dutch side. go figure!
Other than that, it was a gorgeous day
Barbara

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
853 PM AST SUN AUG 2 2009

.UPDATE...LATEST TJSJ 00Z SOUNDING REVEALED A WET PROFILE WITH
OVER 2.0 INCHES OF PW. THIS AGREE WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AS
WELL AS LATEST MIMIC TPW FROM CIMSS WHICH INDICATED AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AHEAD OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...NO CHANGES TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME...WHICH HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON ONGOING WEATHER SITUATION.

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 030035
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
835 PM AST SUN AUG 2 2009

ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE WATERS SURROUNDING
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BUT NONE AFFECTED LAND. TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST AND WINDS WERE FROM THE EAST AROUND
10 MPH.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE
DOMINATED BY EASTERLY FLOW WITH ONLY MODEST MOISTURE AND NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES EXPECTED. THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL OFFSHORE WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES...
WHERE WINDS WILL BE UP TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET.

$$

[Gustywind]

Good night to all:) and do not forget to keep an eye on the twave activity near Africa in case of...because we're keeping an eye on a twave emerging of the coast of Africa, and, moreover... as we're entering the peak of the hurricane season
See you soon.