EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE (07E)

[HURAKAN]

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invest_ep982009.invest
FSTDA
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200908031232
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NOTIFY=ATRP
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INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 98, 2009, DB, O, 2009080312, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP982009
EP, 98, 2009080312, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1115W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[HURAKAN]

03/1200 UTC 13.1N 110.3W T1.5/1.5 INVEST -- East Pacific

No time to waste

[HURAKAN]

Looking good

[HURAKAN]

867
WHXX01 KMIA 031259
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1259 UTC MON AUG 3 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP982009) 20090803 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090803 1200 090804 0000 090804 1200 090805 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.9N 111.5W 14.0N 114.3W 15.2N 117.1W 16.5N 120.5W
BAMD 12.9N 111.5W 13.5N 113.8W 14.1N 116.1W 15.0N 118.5W
BAMM 12.9N 111.5W 13.7N 114.4W 14.3N 117.2W 15.4N 120.4W
LBAR 12.9N 111.5W 13.4N 114.2W 14.2N 117.1W 15.3N 120.1W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090805 1200 090806 1200 090807 1200 090808 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.6N 123.8W 18.9N 130.7W 17.9N 138.2W 16.2N 145.2W
BAMD 16.0N 120.9W 18.1N 125.6W 19.6N 130.6W 21.2N 135.5W
BAMM 16.5N 123.4W 18.2N 129.3W 17.7N 135.6W 16.6N 141.8W
LBAR 16.4N 123.0W 19.1N 128.3W 19.7N 133.4W 18.9N 137.2W
SHIP 45KTS 45KTS 37KTS 35KTS
DSHP 45KTS 45KTS 37KTS 35KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.9N LONCUR = 111.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 12.4N LONM12 = 109.1W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 106.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Macrocane]

I think it should be code red, upper divergence is OK, SST are warm, wind shear is moderate but diminishing and convection is strong, it has a good potential.

[HURAKAN]

Looking excellent

[Macrocane]

Convecion has persisted and banding has improved this must be already a TD, data from a quikscat would be very helpful to confirm or deny this.

[HURAKAN]

CODE RED

373
ABPZ20 KNHC 031743
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
APPEARS TO BE FORMING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL
BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT...
AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15
MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[HURAKAN]

Looks like 7-E is in the works.

[cycloneye]

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invest[b]_RENUMBER_ep982009_ep072009.ren
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200908031842
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NOTIFY=ATRP[/b]

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 031845
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1845 UTC MON AUG 3 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

[b]DISTURBANCE SEVEN (EP072009) 20090803 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090803 1800 090804 0600 090804 1800 090805 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.9N 112.0W 14.1N 114.4W 15.1N 117.1W 16.3N 120.2W
BAMD 12.9N 112.0W 13.3N 114.4W 13.9N 116.9W 14.8N 119.5W
BAMM 12.9N 112.0W 13.6N 114.6W 14.5N 117.5W 15.6N 120.6W
LBAR 12.9N 112.0W 13.5N 114.6W 14.3N 117.5W 15.3N 120.4W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 45KTS 50KTS
DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 45KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090805 1800 090806 1800 090807 1800 090808 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.6N 123.3W 19.4N 129.9W 19.8N 137.5W 20.1N 144.8W
BAMD 15.8N 122.1W 17.5N 127.2W 18.4N 132.7W 19.2N 137.9W
BAMM 16.9N 123.6W 18.7N 129.9W 19.3N 136.9W 19.8N 144.2W
LBAR 16.3N 123.3W 18.6N 129.0W 15.7N 139.3W .0N .0W
SHIP 53KTS 47KTS 32KTS 24KTS
DSHP 53KTS 47KTS 32KTS 24KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.9N LONCUR = 112.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 12.6N LONM12 = 109.6W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 12.2N LONM24 = 105.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


[/b]

[cycloneye]

823
WTPZ42 KNHC 032031
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072009
200 PM PDT MON AUG 03 2009

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS. BANDING FEATURES
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION HAVE
BECOME MORE DEFINED AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED
WITHIN A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AREA. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
ARE NOW AT T2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...CONSISTENT WITH THE
OBSERVED INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN. THE CYCLONE
IS SITUATED IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A REASONABLY CONDUCIVE
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT...WITH SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATERS
AND MODERATE NORTHERLY SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IN LINE WITH THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE. LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...INTENSIFICATION SHOULD HALT AS THE SYSTEM REACHES
MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

SEVEN-E IS MOVING A LITTLE NORTH OF WEST NEAR 12 KNOTS. GLOBAL
FORECAST MODELS MAINTAIN A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A POTENTIAL COMPLICATING
FACTOR IS THE PRESENCE OF A LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 9 DEGREES TO
THE WEST OF THE DEPRESSION. AT THIS TIME...THE TRACK GUIDANCE DOES
NOT SHOW MUCH INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. ASSUMING THAT
THIS WILL BE THE CASE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS A MOTION
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND IS IN
GENERAL ACCORDANCE WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 13.0N 112.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 13.5N 114.3W 35 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 14.0N 116.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 14.5N 118.1W 45 KT
48HR VT 05/1800Z 15.0N 120.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 06/1800Z 16.0N 124.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 07/1800Z 17.0N 128.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 08/1800Z 17.0N 132.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[RL3AO]

nm

[JonathanBelles]

I actually like the home page like that!

[RL3AO]

Yep, I guess it wasn't an accident. I thought someone just forgot to close a tag.

If it gets info to people easier, I like it.

[clfenwi]

Interesting to look at the 18Z GFDL and HWRF runs for TD-7 and compare them to the GFDL/HWRF for 99E. Almost like one system's getting wiped out in the other's initialization, except that: 1. They should be far enough apart for that not to be the case and 2. Doesn't really explain the relative favor for the invest with regards to peak intensity (could have something to do with it though, I suppose).

[cycloneye]

Hello Enrique

WHXX01 KMIA 040043
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0043 UTC TUE AUG 4 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE ENRIQUE (EP072009) 20090804 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090804 0000 090804 1200 090805 0000 090805 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.2N 113.5W 14.0N 115.6W 14.8N 118.0W 15.8N 120.7W
BAMD 13.2N 113.5W 13.6N 115.8W 14.3N 118.3W 15.2N 120.9W
BAMM 13.2N 113.5W 13.9N 116.0W 14.8N 118.7W 15.9N 121.6W
LBAR 13.2N 113.5W 13.8N 116.2W 14.7N 119.1W 15.8N 122.0W
SHIP 35KTS 45KTS 54KTS 62KTS
DSHP 35KTS 45KTS 54KTS 62KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090806 0000 090807 0000 090808 0000 090809 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.8N 123.3W 18.4N 128.5W 19.8N 134.0W 21.1N 139.7W
BAMD 16.3N 123.4W 17.9N 128.3W 19.1N 133.3W 19.9N 137.4W
BAMM 17.2N 124.4W 19.1N 130.3W 20.2N 136.4W 20.9N 142.6W
LBAR 17.0N 124.9W 19.1N 130.4W 16.7N 138.5W .0N .0W
SHIP 67KTS 67KTS 58KTS 53KTS
DSHP 67KTS 67KTS 58KTS 53KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.2N LONCUR = 113.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 12.7N LONM12 = 110.8W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 12.5N LONM24 = 108.3W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 15NM RD34NW = 15NM

[Derek Ortt]

one set of T numbers are 1.5/2.0 and the other is 3.0/3.0. This is for the same center

[clfenwi]

I can easily understand that when there's a significant difference in the position estimates. Not so much, when it's 8 nautical miles.