Disturbance fizzeled in Eastern Atlantic

[MGC]

I'm placeing my bets on the wave still over Africa, it should hit the water in a day or two. This one is currently a bit south....MGC

[PTrackerLA]

Probably the best looking wave so far this year but we'll just have to wait and see with this one. Check out the explosion of convection in Africa though, that could be a contender in the future. The GOM and Caribbean are eerily quiet so it's all about Africa this month I would assume.

[cycloneye]

Nothing yet from NHC.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 032331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK/BRENNAN

But why they have three forecasters to do this Tropical Weather Outlook?

[cycloneye]

Vivid colors

[Gustywind]

Nothing yet from NHC.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 032331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK/BRENNAN

But why they have three forecasters to do this Tropical Weather Outlook?

Humm with my sense of humor (if i have some, hope so... )a forecaster for each area : THE NORTH ATLANTIC... the CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... More seriously i don't know, but hope i put some humor in this reply

[cycloneye]

From Discussion at 8 PM EDT.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N15W 9N29W 11N42W 9N50W
12N61W. [b]BROAD AREA OF MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 9N29W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE
ANALYZED AT 04/0000 UTC. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 9N31W.[/b]

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[clfenwi]

But why they have three forecasters to do this Tropical Weather Outlook?

As much as I like gustywind's explanation, I must point out that it's two forecasters: Jessica Schauer Clark (a TAFB forecaster) and Richard Brennan (senior hurricane specialist). (REF: NHC staff)

[gatorcane]

Nothing yet from NHC.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 032331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK/BRENNAN

But why they have three forecasters to do this Tropical Weather Outlook?

I'm shocked why it was not mentioned. The area continues to blowup convection typical of a developing Cape Verde system...

Next TWO it will be mentioned for sure assuming the convection sustains or continues to grow....

Latest:

[Gustywind]

But why they have three forecasters to do this Tropical Weather Outlook?

As much as I like gustywind's explanation, I must point out that it's two forecasters: Jessica Schauer Clark (a TAFB forecaster) and Richard Brennan (senior hurricane specialist). (REF: NHC staff)

Ohh tkanks my friend i appreciate sincerely (i'm not so stupid )... and glad to discover the two forecasters, very nice info

[cycloneye]

But why they have three forecasters to do this Tropical Weather Outlook?

As much as I like gustywind's explanation, I must point out that it's two forecasters: Jessica Schauer Clark (a TAFB forecaster) and Richard Brennan (senior hurricane specialist). (REF: NHC staff)

Good that you clarified this.

[Gustywind]

Nothing yet from NHC.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 032331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK/BRENNAN

But why they have three forecasters to do this Tropical Weather Outlook?

I'm shocked why it was not mentioned. The area continues to blowup convection typical of a developing Cape Verde system...

Next TWO it will be mentioned for sure assuming the convection sustains or continues to grow....

Latest:

Absolutely you're right Gatorcane, let's wait the next TWO. If this growing trend is "confirmed" a yellow code could be apparent, if not, we're not so far... "just wait" y le " den vitamina (vitamins)

[JonathanBelles]

Interesting little piece of MJO moving up toward the wave.

[Tropics Guy]

Disturbed area lookin good tonight, good convection & good cyclonic spinning (though could be mid-level). If it keeps at a low latitude for the next few days it might have a chance to further develop. SSt's & shear are favorable & it is moving south of the dry air (SAL) for now. Wouldn't be surprised if it is a code yellow by later tonight or tomorrow.

TG

[Derek Ortt]

I am not shocked at all this is not mentioned. I also did not mention this tonight and also put it at the end of my PNJ column for the evening

I said about ten times in this thread why this is not worthy of a mention

[ronjon]

Latest GFS is bullish on development along with CMC. Could be our first storm in a couple of days, GFS is really showing the Cape Verde season kicking into gear the next two weeks - looks like a monsoon trough setting up in the east Atlantic.

[Blown Away]

If this wave keeps this convection it will be mentioned sometime tomorrow.

[Derek Ortt]

again, the wave is farther EAST

[clfenwi]

Pertinent bit of the evening TWD:

BROAD AREA OF MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 9N29W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE
ANALYZED AT 04/0000 UTC. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 9N31W.

[Dean4Storms]

It looks suspicious to me Derek, it could be a MLC but I would not be surprised to see this develop a surface low if this convection continues overnight.

[RL3AO]