Good morning to all the Caribbean friends.Some showers today in Puerto Rico as wave passes by.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
454 AM AST MON AUG 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...A PASSING TROPICAL WAVE BROUGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT. SO FAR...VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS AFFECTED THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THEMSELVES...HOWEVER A SECOND AREA OF MOISTURE
MOVING ACROSS TNCM THIS MORNING...WILL LIKELY BRING A FURTHER
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EXPECT THE TUTT LOW TO OUR NORTH TO
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD...RESULTING IN FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. ALREADY HAVE SEEN GOOD ENHANCEMENT OF AN AREA OF SHOWERS
JUST NORTH OF 20N THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THIS SINKING TUTT
LOW...AND EXPECT THIS MORE FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT TO
REACH PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY PATCHY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...EXPECT
THE BEST SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 40 WEST THIS MORNING...WILL
BRING A DEEPER SURGE IN MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
Caribbean - Central America Weather
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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knotimpaired
- Category 1
- Posts: 495
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2005 4:14 am
- Location: Vieques, PR
- Contact:
Well we did receive some rain since midnight. .12" 
We installed a Weatherhawk system here at the house in 2004 after we bought it. I went in the archives to check on the total of rain for the year as of today's date and the annual total. Here is what I found.
Aug 3, 2005 - 24.25" Dec. 31st - 53.90"
Aug 3, 2006 - 23.15" Dec. 31st - 49.21"
Aug 3, 2007 - 22.95" Dec. 31st - 50.55"
Aug 3, 2008 - 15.16" Dec. 31st - 54.69"
Aug 3, 2009 - 19.53"
The reason I checked was normally by this time of the year our grass would be green. It is brown.
Anyone interested in watching weather in Vieques our system is live at http://www.playacofi.com/weather.
We installed a Weatherhawk system here at the house in 2004 after we bought it. I went in the archives to check on the total of rain for the year as of today's date and the annual total. Here is what I found.
Aug 3, 2005 - 24.25" Dec. 31st - 53.90"
Aug 3, 2006 - 23.15" Dec. 31st - 49.21"
Aug 3, 2007 - 22.95" Dec. 31st - 50.55"
Aug 3, 2008 - 15.16" Dec. 31st - 54.69"
Aug 3, 2009 - 19.53"
The reason I checked was normally by this time of the year our grass would be green. It is brown.
Anyone interested in watching weather in Vieques our system is live at http://www.playacofi.com/weather.
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AWCA82 TJSJ 030845
RWSVI
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
445 AM AST MON AUG 3 2009
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WERE
NOTED...ESPECIALLY OVER ST CROIX AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. THE WIND
WAS EAST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH.
THERE WILL BE A MIXTURE OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE WIND WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 20
MPH.
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING...
WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS AND FAIRLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WIND CONDITIONS...TO
PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TODAY.
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TODAY.
$$
AWCA82 TJSJ 030845
RWSVI
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
445 AM AST MON AUG 3 2009
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WERE
NOTED...ESPECIALLY OVER ST CROIX AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. THE WIND
WAS EAST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH.
THERE WILL BE A MIXTURE OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE WIND WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 20
MPH.
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING...
WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS AND FAIRLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WIND CONDITIONS...TO
PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TODAY.
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TODAY.
$$
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Looking at Africa and the twave activity:
Mark Avery, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 3, 2009 4:39 am ET
The Atlantic basin remains very quiet. The Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea are practically clear of any convection.
A wave of low pressure has moved off of Africa. It is still a little too early in the season for this area to be the breeding ground where systems hold together. Nonetheless, we will continue to monitor this area.
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurri ... om=hp_news
http://www.weather.com/multimedia/video ... date_video
Mark Avery, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 3, 2009 4:39 am ET
The Atlantic basin remains very quiet. The Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea are practically clear of any convection.
A wave of low pressure has moved off of Africa. It is still a little too early in the season for this area to be the breeding ground where systems hold together. Nonetheless, we will continue to monitor this area.
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurri ... om=hp_news
http://www.weather.com/multimedia/video ... date_video
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AWCA82 TJSJ 031502
RWSVI
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1103 AM AST MON AUG 3 2009
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
SURROUNDING WATERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE
NOTED...ESPECIALLY OVER ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN AND ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. THE WIND WAS EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND
THE LOCAL TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE MORNING WERE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
80S.
THERE WILL BE A MIXTURE OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE WIND WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 10
TO 20 MPH
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN HISPANIOLA LATE THIS
MORNING...WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND THIS
FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND FAIRLY FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL WIND CONDITIONS...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 18
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TODAY.
$$
AWCA82 TJSJ 031502
RWSVI
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1103 AM AST MON AUG 3 2009
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
SURROUNDING WATERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE
NOTED...ESPECIALLY OVER ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN AND ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. THE WIND WAS EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND
THE LOCAL TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE MORNING WERE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
80S.
THERE WILL BE A MIXTURE OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE WIND WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 10
TO 20 MPH
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN HISPANIOLA LATE THIS
MORNING...WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND THIS
FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND FAIRLY FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL WIND CONDITIONS...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 18
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TODAY.
$$
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 031610
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1210 PM AST MON AUG 3 2009
.UPDATE...AN AREA OF MOISTURE BEHIND A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE JUST ACROSS
EASTERN HISPANIOLA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO LATE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
WESTWARD AND IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING...LOCAL ISLANDS
EFFECTS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. A RETURN TO A TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN...WITH
DIURNAL INDUCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN
AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS...IS EXPECTED FOR
NEXT FEW DAYS. NO CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
REASONING.
.AVIATION...
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL
03/1800Z ACROSS TIST...TISX AND TJSJ. AFTER 03/1700Z MVFR OR EVEN
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.
&&
FXCA62 TJSJ 031610
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1210 PM AST MON AUG 3 2009
.UPDATE...AN AREA OF MOISTURE BEHIND A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE JUST ACROSS
EASTERN HISPANIOLA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO LATE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
WESTWARD AND IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING...LOCAL ISLANDS
EFFECTS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. A RETURN TO A TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN...WITH
DIURNAL INDUCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN
AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS...IS EXPECTED FOR
NEXT FEW DAYS. NO CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
REASONING.
.AVIATION...
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL
03/1800Z ACROSS TIST...TISX AND TJSJ. AFTER 03/1700Z MVFR OR EVEN
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.
&&
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145304
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Eastern Caribbean Thread=Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
As it was expected few showers are falling this afternoon in Puerto Rico due to diurnal heating combined with the wave passage.
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
That's it Cycloneye 
000
AWCA82 TJSJ 031842
RWSVI
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
345 PM AST MON AUG 3 2009
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN...WHILE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS ST CROIX THIS AFTERNOON. THE
DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE WATERS SURROUNDING ST THOMAS AND ST
JOHN. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE
OBSERVED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WIND WAS MAINLY FROM THE
EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND THE TEMPERATURES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WERE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S.
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN HISPANIOLA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...IN COMBINATION WITH DIURNAL HEATING...LOCAL ISLANDS
EFFECTS AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST
UNTIL SUNSET. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ONLY THE TYPICAL SUMMER SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES.
$$
000
AWCA82 TJSJ 031842
RWSVI
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
345 PM AST MON AUG 3 2009
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN...WHILE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS ST CROIX THIS AFTERNOON. THE
DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE WATERS SURROUNDING ST THOMAS AND ST
JOHN. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE
OBSERVED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WIND WAS MAINLY FROM THE
EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND THE TEMPERATURES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WERE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S.
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN HISPANIOLA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...IN COMBINATION WITH DIURNAL HEATING...LOCAL ISLANDS
EFFECTS AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST
UNTIL SUNSET. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ONLY THE TYPICAL SUMMER SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES.
$$
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 031833
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
233 PM AST MON AUG 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DIGGING DOWN OVER
THE AREA AND WILL FADE BY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC AND WILL
SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AFTER THE WORK WEEK.
AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST
THROUGH HISPANIOLA FOLLOWED BY A FEW BANDS OF MOISTURE. ANOTHER
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A
WEEKEND OF DRIER WEATHER. A BETTER TROPICAL WAVE WITH EVEN MORE
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN FORMED
OVER A NUMBER OF AREAS IN PUERTO RICO...BUT WERE MOVING FAIRLY
RAPIDLY AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AND SHOULD NOT
LEAVE MORE THAN ONE OR TWO INCHES IN ANY ONE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE PICTURES HINT AT A LINE OF MOISTURE FORMING NEAR 61 WEST
LONGITUDE THAT THE NAM CARRIES ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO PUERTO RICO AFTER 12Z. LINEAR
EXTRAPOLATION AGREES WITH THIS SLOWER ADVANCEMENT...WHILE THE GFS
HAS IT OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO BY 8AM WHERE IT WOULD HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT. EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THE EASTERN COAST AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REST OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO TOMORROW
MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AIDS CONVECTION IN THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN PUERTO RICO AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SOME AMOUNTS
WILL BE HEAVY AS TODAY. THIS SHOWER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH
DIMINISHING INTENSITY EACH DAY THIS WEEK UNTIL BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY FEW SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN...THOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
STILL BE GENERATED IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO END OVER ALL OF PUERTO RICO SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN ANOTHER
MORE PROMISING WAVE ARRIVES. DUE TO THE TIME TO ITS ARRIVAL...
CONFIDENCE IN STRENGTH AND TIMING IS MEDIOCRE.
&&
.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
TJSJ...TJMZ AND TJBQ IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS UNTIL 03/2200Z. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 03/1200Z TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED AN EASTERLY
WIND FLOW...UP TO 20 KNOTS...ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND
20K FEET...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ABOVE THAT LEVEL.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SIMILAR FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK...THEN POSSIBLY RISE OVER THE WEEKEND TO 7 FEET IN THE
ATLANTIC AND 8 FEET IN THE CARIBBEAN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 78 89 / 50 50 30 30
STT 79 89 79 89 / 50 50 40 40
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&
$$
72/12
So take your umbrella Cyloneye
FXCA62 TJSJ 031833
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
233 PM AST MON AUG 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DIGGING DOWN OVER
THE AREA AND WILL FADE BY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC AND WILL
SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AFTER THE WORK WEEK.
AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST
THROUGH HISPANIOLA FOLLOWED BY A FEW BANDS OF MOISTURE. ANOTHER
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A
WEEKEND OF DRIER WEATHER. A BETTER TROPICAL WAVE WITH EVEN MORE
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN FORMED
OVER A NUMBER OF AREAS IN PUERTO RICO...BUT WERE MOVING FAIRLY
RAPIDLY AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AND SHOULD NOT
LEAVE MORE THAN ONE OR TWO INCHES IN ANY ONE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE PICTURES HINT AT A LINE OF MOISTURE FORMING NEAR 61 WEST
LONGITUDE THAT THE NAM CARRIES ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO PUERTO RICO AFTER 12Z. LINEAR
EXTRAPOLATION AGREES WITH THIS SLOWER ADVANCEMENT...WHILE THE GFS
HAS IT OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO BY 8AM WHERE IT WOULD HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT. EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THE EASTERN COAST AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REST OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO TOMORROW
MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AIDS CONVECTION IN THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN PUERTO RICO AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SOME AMOUNTS
WILL BE HEAVY AS TODAY. THIS SHOWER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH
DIMINISHING INTENSITY EACH DAY THIS WEEK UNTIL BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY FEW SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN...THOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
STILL BE GENERATED IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO END OVER ALL OF PUERTO RICO SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN ANOTHER
MORE PROMISING WAVE ARRIVES. DUE TO THE TIME TO ITS ARRIVAL...
CONFIDENCE IN STRENGTH AND TIMING IS MEDIOCRE.
&&
.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
TJSJ...TJMZ AND TJBQ IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS UNTIL 03/2200Z. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 03/1200Z TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED AN EASTERLY
WIND FLOW...UP TO 20 KNOTS...ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND
20K FEET...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ABOVE THAT LEVEL.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SIMILAR FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK...THEN POSSIBLY RISE OVER THE WEEKEND TO 7 FEET IN THE
ATLANTIC AND 8 FEET IN THE CARIBBEAN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 78 89 / 50 50 30 30
STT 79 89 79 89 / 50 50 40 40
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&
$$
72/12
So take your umbrella Cyloneye
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Speaking this morning about a twave in the far eastern Atlantic, here is sat pic of this pretty healthy wave (for more info, go on this thread 
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=105969&hilit= )
Convection continues to pop...
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=105969&hilit= )Convection continues to pop...
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Hey carib friends...it's time to let you in the arms of Morpheus.
Good night to all, hope that Cycloneye will provide you the latest infos concerning the weather forecast...and the others (it's a family don't forget it ) so post all the infos concerning the weather in your area.
See you in...the bed
Good night to all, hope that Cycloneye will provide you the latest infos concerning the weather forecast...and the others (it's a family don't forget it ) so post all the infos concerning the weather in your area.
See you in...the bed
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145304
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Eastern Caribbean Thread=Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1021 PM AST MON AUG 3 2009
.UPDATE...
LATEST TJSJ 00Z SOUNDING REMAINED FAIRLY MOIST IN LOW LEVELS
WITH PW AT 1.98 INCHES. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED DESCENT
AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FRAGMENTS QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. LATEST CIMSS
MIMIC TPW STILL SUGGEST OVERALL MOISTURE FIELD JUST BELOW 2.0
INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED TUTT LOW WELL NORTH OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGEST THE UPPER
TROUGH TO BECOME SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION OVER
THE FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...DO NOT FORESEE ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
INFLUX OR MAJOR WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE OVERNIGHT PORTION OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS.
Good night to all.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145304
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Eastern Caribbean Thread=Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
Good morning to all.Watching the area to our east.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
447 AM AST TUE AUG 4 2009
.DISCUSSION...A TUTT LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL
COMBINE WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED ACROSS PUERTO RICO ON
MONDAY...TO BRING SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. A RELATIVELY DRIER SLOT OF AIR...AND POSSIBLY SOME
LIGHT HAZE...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON
WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 45 WEST...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. LATEST GFS
INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH THIS SECOND
WAVE...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY IS INDICATING AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 30 WEST THIS MORNING IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...WITH MID LEVEL ROTATION AND BANDS OF MOISTURE
FEEDING INTO THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. GLOBAL MODELS PRESENT
VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH THIS TROUGH...WITH THE GFS TAKING A
CLOSED LOW WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...THE ECMWF
TAKING A CLOSED LOW A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND THE UKMET MOVING AN
OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY PRESENT...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA OF THE
ATLANTIC FOR POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT...BUT PER TPC/NHC TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
447 AM AST TUE AUG 4 2009
.DISCUSSION...A TUTT LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL
COMBINE WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED ACROSS PUERTO RICO ON
MONDAY...TO BRING SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. A RELATIVELY DRIER SLOT OF AIR...AND POSSIBLY SOME
LIGHT HAZE...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON
WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 45 WEST...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. LATEST GFS
INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH THIS SECOND
WAVE...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY IS INDICATING AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 30 WEST THIS MORNING IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...WITH MID LEVEL ROTATION AND BANDS OF MOISTURE
FEEDING INTO THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. GLOBAL MODELS PRESENT
VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH THIS TROUGH...WITH THE GFS TAKING A
CLOSED LOW WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...THE ECMWF
TAKING A CLOSED LOW A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND THE UKMET MOVING AN
OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY PRESENT...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA OF THE
ATLANTIC FOR POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT...BUT PER TPC/NHC TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Hi everybody hope that today the sun is shining in your heart or in your area !
Fair weather is expected today with some showers becoming more present at the end of the day (especially Guadeloupe and Martinica given Meteo-France weather forecast), whereas as Cycloneye mentionned it we should watch the area to our east, because of signs of organization....
Latest sat pic of the Lesser Antilles
!Fair weather is expected today with some showers becoming more present at the end of the day (especially Guadeloupe and Martinica given Meteo-France weather forecast), whereas as Cycloneye mentionned it we should watch the area to our east, because of signs of organization....
Latest sat pic of the Lesser Antilles
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AWCA82 TJSJ 040900
RWSVI
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST TUE AUG 4 2009
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WERE
NOTED IN A FEW LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES. THE WIND WAS MAINLY EAST AT 15 MPH OR LESS.
THERE WILL BE A MIXTURE OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. IT WILL BE BREEZY...WITH A GUSTY EAST WIND
OF 15 TO 20 MPH.
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND FAIRLY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WIND CONDITIONS...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY.
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TODAY.
$$
AWCA82 TJSJ 040900
RWSVI
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST TUE AUG 4 2009
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WERE
NOTED IN A FEW LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES. THE WIND WAS MAINLY EAST AT 15 MPH OR LESS.
THERE WILL BE A MIXTURE OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. IT WILL BE BREEZY...WITH A GUSTY EAST WIND
OF 15 TO 20 MPH.
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND FAIRLY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WIND CONDITIONS...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY.
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TODAY.
$$
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Watching to our east a strong twave...
Mark Avery, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 4, 2009 5:06 am ET
In the far eastern Atlantic, an area of low pressure southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has developed more convection over the past day.
This low is in an area that is generally favorable for development. It is possible this could become the first tropical depression of the Atlantic season over the next day or two.
Very healthy twave showing signs of organization with convection continuing to pop remarquably...
Mark Avery, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 4, 2009 5:06 am ET
In the far eastern Atlantic, an area of low pressure southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has developed more convection over the past day.
This low is in an area that is generally favorable for development. It is possible this could become the first tropical depression of the Atlantic season over the next day or two.
Very healthy twave showing signs of organization with convection continuing to pop remarquably...
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AXNT20 KNHC 041103 CCA
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 04 2009
CORRECTION IN ORDER TO CHANGE THE WORD EAST TO WEST IN THE
SIXTH LINE OF THE PARAGRAPH ABOUT THE 31W/32W ATLANTIC OCEAN
TROUGH IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W/20W TO THE SOUTH OF
19N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 9N
TO 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 27W...SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION ALSO
IS IN THE ITCZ.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31W/32W FROM 7N TO 12N. IT IS EASILY
POSSIBLE THAT THE SCENARIO REGARDING THIS TROUGH MAY CHANGE FOR
THE 04/1200 UTC MAP ANALYSIS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 33W AND 36W. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF WHAT
WE MAY END UP ANALYZING AS A TROPICAL WAVE ROUGHLY ALONG 12N29W
10N28W 5N31W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
A 30 NM RADIUS OF 5N31W. WHAT WE HAVE BEEN ANALYZING AS A TROUGH
MAY DISAPPEAR IN FAVOR OF PUTTING A TROPICAL WAVE ON THE MAP.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N48W 10N44W MOVING
WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KT. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 45W AND 46W.
WHAT USED TO BE THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NOW 15N48W-10N44W
TROPICAL WAVE IS A TROUGH ALONG 18N53W 21N54W 24N54W. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH.
A TROPICAL WAVE GOES FROM ANTIGUA/BARBUDA TO SAINT LUCIA TO
9N60W ABOUT 30 NM TO THE EAST OF NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA...
DRIFTING WESTWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...IMMEDIATELY TO THE WEST OF THIS WAVE.
...THE ITCZ...
FROM 12N21W TO 9N31W 9N44W 8N53W 8N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.
AXNT20 KNHC 041103 CCA
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 04 2009
CORRECTION IN ORDER TO CHANGE THE WORD EAST TO WEST IN THE
SIXTH LINE OF THE PARAGRAPH ABOUT THE 31W/32W ATLANTIC OCEAN
TROUGH IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W/20W TO THE SOUTH OF
19N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 9N
TO 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 27W...SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION ALSO
IS IN THE ITCZ.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31W/32W FROM 7N TO 12N. IT IS EASILY
POSSIBLE THAT THE SCENARIO REGARDING THIS TROUGH MAY CHANGE FOR
THE 04/1200 UTC MAP ANALYSIS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 33W AND 36W. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF WHAT
WE MAY END UP ANALYZING AS A TROPICAL WAVE ROUGHLY ALONG 12N29W
10N28W 5N31W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
A 30 NM RADIUS OF 5N31W. WHAT WE HAVE BEEN ANALYZING AS A TROUGH
MAY DISAPPEAR IN FAVOR OF PUTTING A TROPICAL WAVE ON THE MAP.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N48W 10N44W MOVING
WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KT. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 45W AND 46W.
WHAT USED TO BE THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NOW 15N48W-10N44W
TROPICAL WAVE IS A TROUGH ALONG 18N53W 21N54W 24N54W. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH.
A TROPICAL WAVE GOES FROM ANTIGUA/BARBUDA TO SAINT LUCIA TO
9N60W ABOUT 30 NM TO THE EAST OF NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA...
DRIFTING WESTWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...IMMEDIATELY TO THE WEST OF THIS WAVE.
...THE ITCZ...
FROM 12N21W TO 9N31W 9N44W 8N53W 8N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.
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