Disturbance fizzeled in Eastern Atlantic

[brunota2003]

Good news:
There is a ball of convection! Get your tracking charts out and start tracking it (should help with the withdrawls from not tracking a 'cane...you can also plot tropical waves as well).

Bad news:
It might poof soon.

[RL3AO]

I think wxman57 has been saying August 8

[cycloneye]

Still hanging there.

[jinftl]

Area of disturbance passing south of any significant SAL





Low shear in the Atlantic south of 15N and east of 65W (approx)



If these conditions persist, whether it is with this area being talked about, or areas off to it's east, it will be harder to categorically say the basin is too hostile to support development.

[Ed Mahmoud]

1)
Not enough people watch the Tour de France to know who Contador is. You'd do better referencing Timo Glock.

2) After closely staring at 850 mb vorticity on the Canadian, whether it is a phantom depression or not, the depression it develops is from vorticity near 30ºW at tau=6 hours.

Knowing Derek (and a TDF fan), I think it's safe to say that he has little chance of defeating Contador in the 2010 Tour de France (me either).

As for the Canadian model, it has been updated this year in an attempt to reduce the phantom TC development. However, I think it's probably wrong in showing any significant development with the system approaching 30W. It is, as Derek said, in the wave train ridge (higher pressure). Let's see if there's anything left in a day or two.

I shall now unoffically and in a fully amateur capacity declare the wave near 30ºW as Invest Contador_L. Best looking nothing I have seen this season. Compare to the least 2 Atlantic Invests.

[Stormcenter]

That mess looks like it may run right into South America.......next.

[Ed Mahmoud]

My amateur and unofficial prediction:


Poofation.

Nice going Ed, It'll be a cat 5 by sunrise.

I think that was the previous wave. This is a 12 page thread, over about 5 days, IIRC.

BTW, unofficial and amateur- Florida and Hawai'i. 1992 redux.

Maybe North Carolina as well. Or maybe not.


But I analyzed the CMC 144 hour 500 mb heights and winds, this would, per the 12Z run, bend North to miss the Islands as it feels the trough passing off the East Coast, but maybe not completely make the connection, and come back West through the Bahamas.

Andrew and Ana, both 2 syllables, both begin with "An".


As scientific as last falls Farmers Almanac...

[Ed Mahmoud]

My amateur and unofficial prediction:


Poofation.

Wednesday, July 29th....

[Kludge]

I think wxman57 has been saying August 8

Ahhh---yep, I stand corrected. But since I see nothing else formulating, it still must be this blob from which Anna will develop. So it seems it will now have more time to get it's act together before the Man of Wx misses his call.

[Ptarmigan]

I heard on the local weather that it might develop by morning.

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS through 168- a strong wave or depression, but with global resolution, maybe a storm, takes a sharp NW turn to safely miss the islands, but looks like it may not completely make the trough as the axis is East of it as 168?

Southeast threat?


It doesn't show too well at 500 mb, Northeast of Puerto Rico, roughly East of Miami, the little "x", and it looks like the trough bends it North but passes it by before recurving it.


If, of course, we believe the GFS

[Sanibel]

You tell me:

[hurricanetrack]

No TWO on it just yet:

419
ABNT20 KNHC 040529
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[floridasun78]

my feeling if was over 10n or north the nhc will check it more but because it bit south their not it need move north

[Incident_MET]

I don't completely understand the above, but I would hope there is not a "latitude policy" in place formal or informal.

[Nimbus]

It already has good mid level rotation and upper air support. I doubt the NHC is taking into account any reduction in Coriolis effect or separation from the ITCZ but you never know.

My guess is they are just waiting to see if the dry air environment poofs the storm before sending the price of oil over $75 a barrel.

[Gustywind]

Interresting paragraph by the Weather Channel:

Mark Avery, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 4, 2009 5:06 am ET

In the far eastern Atlantic, an area of low pressure southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has developed more convection over the past day.

This low is in an area that is generally favorable for development. It is possible this could become the first tropical depression of the Atlantic season over the next day or two.

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurri ... om=hp_news

[SEASON_CANCELED]

We've been burned time and time again by pretty balls of convection. Derek says this isn't likely to develop and he should know. Just cause it's pretty doesn't mean it will develop into a tropical cyclone. Unless Derek is interested in it, why should we think otherwise?

Sure why not. His guess is as good as any

[Gustywind]

Things seems to heating up a bit, here is a sat pic of the Tropical activity:



Very healthy twave showing signs of organization with convection continuing to pop remarquably


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
447 AM AST TUE AUG 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...A TUTT LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL
COMBINE WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED ACROSS PUERTO RICO ON
MONDAY...TO BRING SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. A RELATIVELY DRIER SLOT OF AIR...AND POSSIBLY SOME
LIGHT HAZE...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON
WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 45 WEST...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. LATEST GFS
INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH THIS SECOND
WAVE...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY IS INDICATING AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 30 WEST THIS MORNING IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...WITH MID LEVEL ROTATION AND BANDS OF MOISTURE
FEEDING INTO THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. GLOBAL MODELS PRESENT
VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH THIS TROUGH...WITH THE GFS TAKING A
CLOSED LOW WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...THE ECMWF
TAKING A CLOSED LOW A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND THE UKMET MOVING AN
OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY PRESENT...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA OF THE
ATLANTIC FOR POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT...BUT PER TPC/NHC TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 041103 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 04 2009

CORRECTION IN ORDER TO CHANGE THE WORD EAST TO WEST IN THE
SIXTH LINE OF THE PARAGRAPH ABOUT THE 31W/32W ATLANTIC OCEAN
TROUGH IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...


A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31W/32W FROM 7N TO 12N. IT IS EASILY
POSSIBLE THAT THE SCENARIO REGARDING THIS TROUGH MAY CHANGE FOR
THE 04/1200 UTC MAP ANALYSIS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 33W AND 36W. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF WHAT
WE MAY END UP ANALYZING AS A TROPICAL WAVE ROUGHLY ALONG 12N29W
10N28W 5N31W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
A 30 NM RADIUS OF 5N31W. WHAT WE HAVE BEEN ANALYZING AS A TROUGH
MAY DISAPPEAR IN FAVOR OF PUTTING A TROPICAL WAVE ON THE MAP.
$$MT