Disturbance fizzeled in Eastern Atlantic

[cycloneye]

From 8 AM Discussion:

AXNT20 KNHC 041103 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 04 2009

CORRECTION IN ORDER TO CHANGE THE WORD EAST TO WEST IN THE
SIXTH LINE OF THE PARAGRAPH ABOUT THE 31W/32W ATLANTIC OCEAN
TROUGH IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W/20W TO THE SOUTH OF
19N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 9N
TO 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 27W...SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION ALSO
IS IN THE ITCZ.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31W/32W FROM 7N TO 12N. IT IS EASILY
POSSIBLE THAT THE SCENARIO REGARDING THIS TROUGH MAY CHANGE FOR
THE 04/1200 UTC MAP ANALYSIS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 33W AND 36W. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF WHAT
WE MAY END UP ANALYZING AS A TROPICAL WAVE ROUGHLY ALONG 12N29W
10N28W 5N31W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
A 30 NM RADIUS OF 5N31W. WHAT WE HAVE BEEN ANALYZING AS A TROUGH
MAY DISAPPEAR IN FAVOR OF PUTTING A TROPICAL WAVE ON THE MAP.

[cycloneye]

[Gustywind]

Looking good...

[cycloneye]

First Tropical Weather Outlook for this system

256
ABNT20 KNHC 041130
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS THIS WAVE MOVES TO WEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH

[Ed Mahmoud]

I hope the SSD page puts a floater on Contador_L

[Blown Away]

Boy, if this develops it has the Islands written all over it! I'm ready for an invest tag and some models!

[Derek Ortt]

boy if this develops it has recurve written all over it since there is expected to be a large weakness north of the Islands

[Fego]

If this is the latest quikscat image, do you think that shows some good news near 30W?

[Gustywind]

Boy, if this develops it has the Islands written all over it! I'm ready for an invest tag and some models!

Really? what is your reasoning?

[Blown Away]

Boy, if this develops it has the Islands written all over it! I'm ready for an invest tag and some models!

Really? what is your reasoning?

Sorry, I was not careful w/ my words. I meant to say being at a low latitude and moving due W if this develops it will have to be very closely watched by the islands folks.

[Blown Away]

I am not shocked at all this is not mentioned. I also did not mention this tonight and also put it at the end of my PNJ column for the evening

I said about ten times in this thread why this is not worthy of a mention

Did you include this wave in your column this morning?

[Frank2]

...if this develops it has recurve written all over it since there is expected to be a large weakness north of the Islands

Thanks, Derek - lettuce hope so (though it'd be in a good position for any HRD research flights)...

Frank

[cycloneye]

Still hanging on.

[Gustywind]

Boy, if this develops it has the Islands written all over it! I'm ready for an invest tag and some models!

Really? what is your reasoning?

Sorry, I was not careful w/ my words. I meant to say being at a low latitude and moving due W if this develops it will have to be very closely watched by the islands folks.

Tkanks to have clarified that with your words i'd prefer that, hope that next time you will continue the same way, all the carib islanders will appreciate" Blown_ Away" for sure Whereas to have more infos about the weather in the islands of the Lesser Antilles go on this thread viewtopic.php?f=20&t=85676&hilit= you will be welcomed in the carib family!
In my opinion we're far away from a "direct" or threat" of something who only shows signs of organization for the moment, that's not an Invest even a TD, so let's stay prudent with the words (about a possible path, the intensity too) and Mother Nature too
Nice regards from a Carib islander
Gustywind

[Dean4Storms]

OK, this one has my attention! Finally! Sustained convection and looks impressive for a Tropical Wave this time of year (Early Aug.) that far out ESE of the Islands.

[Stormcenter]

It's August now so it's not that unusual IMO.
Anyway it's got a long way to go but I guess
anything is better then nothing.

OK, this one has my attention! Finally! Sustained convection and looks impressive for a Tropical Wave this time of year (Early Aug.) that far out ESE of the Islands.

[Ed Mahmoud]

0Z GFS showed this reacting to a trough passing in the Westerlies by turning North/Northwest, and passing well North of the islands. It bends back to the West-Northwest, at hour 180, last reliable (IMHO) frame, the next trough coming off the East Coast looks like it will recurve it before reaching the East Coast, but it would be close.


Canadian model is closer to the islands, but still a miss.



No Gaps shows an unremarkable weak wave, travelling Eastward in the low level steering.

Euro similar to NoGaps.

No model seems to suggest an impact on the Caribbean.

I wouldn't mind an invest, although I think the 3 BAM models are most useful as a quick-look indicator of shear. The three track together, low to moderate shear, a big spread, bad shear and the shallow BAM probably closest.

[hurricanefloyd5]

I am surprized for two reasons 1st I am surprized because it's not at lease an invest and 2nd this things looks to be or becoming a tropical depresstion soon huh huh!!!!!!!!!!! :

[wxman57]

Here's a bit closer look at the disturbance, along with a plot of some obs in the area. It actually looks less impressive on visible imagery than with IR. The thunderstorm area is elongating NW-SE today. There are some sparse surface obs in the region. Can't really identify much of a circulation aloft, and nothing at the surface. A high-res satellite loop (I have Meteosat imagery every 15 min) reveals two small vortices to the northeast of the disturbance. I circled them on the image below. Both lack convection and aren't likely to develop.

All models - GFS, Canadian, ECMWF take this disturbance W-WNW for the next 2-3 days then NW and out to sea well east of the Caribbean, as Derek noted. However, the models may be overdeveloping the disturbance. If it remains as it is, it'll probably just continue westward (and not develop, most likely). Of note are the weak trade winds indicated by the obs on the image. This indicates that the high to its north is weaker now, another sign that it'll start gaining latitude should it get better organized.

But there is a slight chance of development. Not high enough to warrant an invest yet. Probably won't develop until this Saturday. Hmm, that happens to be August 8th!

[Sanibel]

I think the dry zone is hitting it. Not sure how much there is to this one. Maybe further west.


2009 continues to show something on IR that looks better than what's there.