Watching For the Monsoon

[M2]

Thanks Steph, Dennis & co. It was great while it lasted. Now back to
the dry stuff and watching it from afar. Guess the car gets washed tomorrow
since Steve doesn't think we're going to score over here very soon again.
I see Tucson down the road is getting it again right now...

Currently: Temp=94F DP=60 RH=35%

[azsnowman]

AFDFLG

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
300 AM MST FRI AUG 01 2003

.SYNOPSIS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR THE DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE...AND FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO
N.M. ATTM. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. PW ACROSS THE CWA REMAINS
AROUND AN INCH WHILE IPWV-GPS SYSTEM SHOWS PW'S INCREASING OVER
SOUTHERN AZ. NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY OVER S AZ MOVING NORTH INTO CWA AND
HAVE RAISED AM POPS FOR GILA AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. WV IMAGERY SHOWS
S/WV IMPULSE OVER GULF OF CALIF MOVING NORTH. MESO-ETA HANDLING THIS
FEATURE WELL AND MOVES IT ACROSS YAVAPAI AND MOHAVE COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON. DIV-Q...DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WEAK INERTIAL INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED THIS THIS FEATURE CROSSES THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A VERY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY WITH THE
TSTMS BEING HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. WITH THE GROUND WET FROM STORMS OF
THE LAST FEW DAYS THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING ELEVATED. WILL ISSUE A
FFA FOR WESTERN CWA SECTIONS TODAY.

OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS PROG MID LEVEL DRYING AS FLOW TURNS SW WITH
THE APPROACH OF AN EPAC TROF. HOWEVER...LITTLE CHANGE PROGGED IN PW
ACROSS THE AREA. MAY SEE A DOWNSWING IN ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
WESTERN CWA...BUT BELIEVE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT DRY COMPLETELY. WILL
KEEP MENTION OF POPS THRU THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE RIDGE TO REMAIN OVER THE
DESERT SW WHICH SHUNTS EPAC TROFS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. GFS PROGS
RETURN OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE BY TUESDAY. WILL KEEP REGION UNDER LOW
GRADE MONSOON FCST. DF