CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA (08E)

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 AUG 2009 Time : 123000 UTC
Lat : 12:36:28 N Lon : 124:30:15 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1002.0mb/ 41.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.7 3.1 3.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -55.7C Cloud Region Temp : -60.0C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[HURAKAN]

122
WTPZ33 KNHC 041435
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FELICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009

...THE SIXTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS...

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELICIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.9 WEST OR ABOUT
1210 MILES...1950 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

FELICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND FELICIA COULD
BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.7N 124.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


686
WTPZ43 KNHC 041435
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E HAS
BECOME TROPICAL STORM FELICIA...THE SIXTH STORM OF THE SEASON. THE
CENTER APPEARS TO BE IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF A PROMINENT
BANDING FEATURE WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB/CIMSS ARE BETWEEN 35-45 KT...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE RAISED TO 40 KT. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS FELICIA REMAINS OVER
WARM WATER WITH LIGHT SHEAR. BEYOND THAT TIME...A COMBINATION OF
INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR FROM TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE AND COOLER
WATERS COULD LIMIT ANY FUTURE STRENGTHENING. THE NHC FORECAST
SHOWS A HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS LINE
WITH THE SHIPS/HWRF/LGEM MODELS IN MAKING THIS STORM A HURRICANE ON
THURSDAY.

FELICIA APPEARS TO BE MOVING AT ABOUT 295/12...THOUGH RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS IT COULD BE MOVING A BIT MORE TO THE
WEST. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FELICIA IS EXPECTED TO STEERED
BY RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERD ON A WEST-NORTHWEST PATH. THEREAFTER...THE
TRACK FORECAST BECOMES COMPLICATED WITH THE PRESENCE OF ENRIQUE TO
THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A LITTLE MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN
THE TROPICAL CYCLONES IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE ECMWF EVEN SHOWING
ENRIQUE PINWHEELING AROUND FELICIA. WHILE THAT SITUATION IS NOT
CONSIDERED LIKELY AT THIS TIME...IN GENERAL THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL TREND IN
THAT DIRECTION. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS
FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE AT LONGER-RANGE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1500Z 12.7N 124.9W 40 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 13.5N 126.5W 45 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 14.4N 128.4W 55 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 15.3N 130.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 06/1200Z 16.1N 131.7W 65 KT
72HR VT 07/1200Z 17.5N 135.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 08/1200Z 18.0N 141.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 09/1200Z 18.0N 147.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[x-y-no]

Wow, that was pretty quick ...

And well within the range of Enrique for a potential Fujiwhara effect, no?

[HURAKAN]

Looking great

[HURAKAN]

Wow, that was pretty quick ...

And well within the range of Enrique for a potential Fujiwhara effect, no?

They're 470 nm apart. Which is pretty close and Enrique is moving 2 miles per hour faster than Felicia. Lets see what happens.

[HURAKAN]

It's going to be a tight race

[I-wall]

Is the Fujiwhara effect when two cyclones circle eachother? Sorta like the "pinwheel" scenario mentioned in the discussion?

[Macrocane]

Pretty interesting scenario.

[HURAKAN]

Is the Fujiwhara effect when two cyclones circle eachother? Sorta like the "pinwheel" scenario mentioned in the discussion?

Yes. I doesn't happen often but it's always interesting to see.

[HURAKAN]

OMG!

[tolakram]

Flash loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/flash-avn.html

[RL3AO]

Um...wow? Looks like someone has been RI'ing during the night.

[HURAKAN]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep082009.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200908041608
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
FELICIA, EP, E, , , , , 08, 2009, TS, O, 2009080312, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 3, EP082009
EP, 08, 2009080300, , BEST, 0, 97N, 1178W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 08, 2009080306, , BEST, 0, 101N, 1190W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 08, 2009080312, , BEST, 0, 106N, 1200W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 08, 2009080318, , BEST, 0, 111N, 1211W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 08, 2009080400, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1222W, 30, 1007, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 30, 40, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, EIGHT, M,
EP, 08, 2009080406, , BEST, 0, 119N, 1235W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 45, 60, 45, 45, 1010, 120, 30, 40, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, EIGHT, M,
EP, 08, 2009080412, , BEST, 0, 120N, 1249W, 50, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 45, 60, 45, 45, 1010, 120, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FELICIA, M,
EP, 08, 2009080412, , BEST, 0, 120N, 1249W, 50, 1000, TS, 50, NEQ, 0, 30, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FELICIA, M,


Intensity increased to 50 knots at 12z. Expect 55 to 60 knots at 18z.

[RL3AO]

SPECIAL ADVISORY - 60 KTS

TROPICAL STORM FELICIA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
1000 AM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009

...FELICIA APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH...

AT 1000 AM PDT...1700 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELICIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.8 WEST OR ABOUT
1275 MILES...2055 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

FELICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND A
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FELICIA
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1000 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.3N 125.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH



TROPICAL STORM FELICIA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
1700 UTC TUE AUG 04 2009

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 125.8W AT 04/1700Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 45NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 125.8W AT 04/1700Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 124.9W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 12.8N 126.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 13.8N 128.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.6N 130.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.3N 132.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.5N 135.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 17.5N 141.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 17.5N 147.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 125.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH



TROPICAL STORM FELICIA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
1000 AM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO REVISE THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF FELICIA. A 1327 UTC TRMM MICROWAVE PASS RECEIVED JUST
AFTER ISSUANCE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
EYEWALL-LIKE FEATURE. IN ADDITION...RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A
WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH HINTS OF AN EYE. SPECIAL
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB INDICATE THAT FELICIA IS
NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60
KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS INCREASED AND IS BASICALLY A BLEND
OF THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.

THE MICROWAVE DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT FELICIA IS CENTERED FARTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RELOCATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1700Z 12.3N 125.8W 60 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 12.8N 126.9W 70 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 13.8N 128.8W 75 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 14.6N 130.5W 80 KT
48HR VT 06/1200Z 15.3N 132.0W 80 KT
72HR VT 07/1200Z 16.5N 135.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 08/1200Z 17.5N 141.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 09/1200Z 17.5N 147.0W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH

[CrazyC83]

Even that 60 kt is conservative IMO. I think Felicia is a hurricane right now personally.

[HURAKAN]

Felicia looks happy!!!

[HurricaneRobert]

Neat. I didn't think this one would make it all. Let's see who absorbs whom.

[HURAKAN]

No question about it. Hurricane at 2 PM PT

[cycloneye]

Say Hello to Hurricane Felicia

EP, 08, 2009080418, , BEST, 0, 122N, 1261W, 65, 987, HU

[Macrocane]

Cloud tops have warmed a lot in both systems maybe the rapid intensification has slowed down a bit but conditions are good and it can continue intensifying for the rest of the day. Or maybe it's just that, a decrease in convection but it is still intensifying rapidly.