Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

12z GFS doesnt have anything new from the previous runs on the system the model has in the short range.In the longer range,it has some big systems but nothing strong.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[cycloneye]

12z CMC has Twins in Tropical Atlantic

Yes,not one but two systems,the first one is the one the model has been showing on a track to just east of Guadeloupe.But in this 12z run it tracks to the NE of the Leewards.It has a new system behind.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

12z EURO has low pressure at 850mb vorticity

[Gustywind]

12z CMC has Twins in Tropical Atlantic

Yes,not one but two systems,the first one is the one the model has been showing on a track to just east of Guadeloupe.But in this 12z run it tracks to the NE of the Leewards.It has a new system behind.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Hey Cycloneye it's a joke just a run and nothing more

[cycloneye]

No twins anymore at the 00z CMC.It has a westbound tropical storm though.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

What about a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane in the Central Atlantic?

That is what 12z CMC has.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[srainhoutx]

HPC Caribbean disco continues to advertise some "hints" of things to come for the Atlantic Basin...snipet...

OUTLOOK: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A PATTERN TRANSITION ON THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMAINS...WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
USA RELOCATING TO THE EASTERN USA/WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH DAY
03-04...THEN PERSISTING THROUGH DAY 07. THIS IS TO THEN FAVOR THE
SOUTHWARD AMPLIFICATION OF A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WHILE A CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ESTABLISHES OVER
THE CENTRAL-EASTERN ATLANTIC. A WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 65-45W. THIS CHANGE IN PATTERN COINCIDES WITH AN
INCREASE IN THE MJO. THIS IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...WHERE WE HAVE SEEN A SURGE IN ITCZ RELATED CONVECTION
DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. CONDITIONS...AS PREDICTED BY THE
EWP/CFS...ARE TO REMAIN FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
WEEKS. BUT BEST DYNAMICS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC MIGHT BE
SLOWER TO MATERIALIZE...WITH MODELS NOW HOLDING BACK UNTIL THE
SECOND HALF OF AUGUST. NEVERTHELESS...THE CHANGE IN FLOW PATTERN
MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW AN INCREASE IN TROPICAL CONVECTION ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC...AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO A HIGHER INCIDENCE IN TROPICAL
CYCLONES.

[OpieStorm]

HPC Caribbean disco continues to advertise some "hints" of things to come for the Atlantic Basin...snipet...

OUTLOOK: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A PATTERN TRANSITION ON THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMAINS...WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
USA RELOCATING TO THE EASTERN USA/WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH DAY
03-04...THEN PERSISTING THROUGH DAY 07. THIS IS TO THEN FAVOR THE
SOUTHWARD AMPLIFICATION OF A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WHILE A CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ESTABLISHES OVER
THE CENTRAL-EASTERN ATLANTIC. A WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 65-45W. THIS CHANGE IN PATTERN COINCIDES WITH AN
INCREASE IN THE MJO. THIS IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...WHERE WE HAVE SEEN A SURGE IN ITCZ RELATED CONVECTION
DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. CONDITIONS...AS PREDICTED BY THE
EWP/CFS...ARE TO REMAIN FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
WEEKS. BUT BEST DYNAMICS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC MIGHT BE
SLOWER TO MATERIALIZE...WITH MODELS NOW HOLDING BACK UNTIL THE
SECOND HALF OF AUGUST. NEVERTHELESS...THE CHANGE IN FLOW PATTERN
MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW AN INCREASE IN TROPICAL CONVECTION ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC...AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO A HIGHER INCIDENCE IN TROPICAL
CYCLONES.

I think they're right. It WILL begin to heat up in the Atlantic sooner or later, even the most boring seasons have a surge of activity at some point.

[wxman57]

I'm not sure the author understands what an MJO is. There's no such thing as "an increase in the MJO". The MJO is a pulse of lower-level westerly (anomalous) winds that originates in the Indian Ocean. It can track eastward all the way to the East Pacific in about a 30-60-day cycle. It doesn't increase in an area. Currently, the MJO is very weak and confined to the Indian Ocean and West Pacific. Long-range models keep it there (and weak). So there's no MJO coming. I have an MJO page where I describe the MJO in layman's terms:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/mjo/

Apart from an MJO, models are indicating an increase in rising air across the East Pac spreading eastward into the Caribbean Sea around mid month. This means that we could see increased thunderstorms and an increased chance of development in the region in 7-14 days.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS joins CMC in developing a system in the Central Atlantic.It tracks mainly westward towards the Lesser Antilles.I would want to see more consensus especially if the ECMWF joins.



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Gustywind]

18z GFS joins CMC in developing a system in the Central Atlantic.It tracks mainly westward towards the Lesser Antilles.I would want to see more consensus especially if the ECMWF joins.



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Humm , let's wait a bit the ECMWF Cycloneye

[jinftl]

Be interested in future runs maintain this disturbance....something getting going in 3-4 days

[cycloneye]

The 00z run of the models were not impressive.

GFS=Nothing solid.
CMC=Abandoned strong tropical storm scenario.
NOGAPS=Nothing of interest.
ECMWF=Nothing to open our eyes.
UKMET=Nothing of significance.

Lets see what the 12z run brings.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not the current 'disturbance' near 40ºW, a tropical depression in 4 days per GFS





It doesn't survive all the way to the islands. It semi-poofs to a weak, but still closed low, in a week.

[cycloneye]

For those who are bored as nothing is going on and want to see something,the long range 12z GFS may be your friend.But we know the drill of the long range.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[cycloneye]

CMC is back and forth.The 12z run has a TD passing just north of Guadeloupe and over Puerto Rico.But is only a run,so Gustywind,no panic,is only a run.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[SEASON_CANCELED]

geez no invest. nothing. Models are not sure about anything. Only feature im concerned about is the swirling N of Dominican republican. models see nothing. Hopefully the season lives up to my name

[cycloneye]

GFS has a parade

Well,the parade is at long range (over 200 hours) so you know the drill.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml


CMC is again with twins

The 12z CMC has two systems in the Atlantic,the same scenario it had 3 days ago.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Gustywind]

CMC is back and forth.The 12z run has a TD passing just north of Guadeloupe and over Puerto Rico.But is only a run,so Gustywind,no panic,is only a run.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Arff Superman you're too strong, i do not panic this time while numerous runs seems to be on Guadeloupe... but be careful next time it will be your turn only a turn maybe a run

[cycloneye]

NOGAPS yes NOGAPS has glimpses of something entering the Caribbean.It apprears on latching on the Central Atlantic disturbance.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation