CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA (08E)

[MGC]

Huge burst of convection near Felicia's center. Don't look like Felicia is being starved of moistures to me.....MGC

[wxmann_91]

Agree with Derek here. Actually it almost looked like it was trying to go annular with those microwave shots earlier today. My biggest concern for Felicia is the shearing influence from Enrique's outflow, which halted the RIC it underwent early this morning and eroded the eastern portions of the CDO. As long as Enrique exists and is moving faster than Felicia, I don't see the latter becoming a Major, or at least a higher-end one.

[cycloneye]

No change in intensity by best track at 00 UTC,70kts.

EP, 08, 2009080500, , BEST, 0, 126N, 1268W, 70, 985, HU

[cycloneye]

Just shy of cat 3 status by SHIP.

WHXX01 KMIA 050044
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0044 UTC WED AUG 5 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FELICIA (EP082009) 20090805 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090805 0000 090805 1200 090806 0000 090806 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.6N 126.8W 13.8N 128.7W 15.1N 130.5W 16.2N 132.1W
BAMD 12.6N 126.8W 13.5N 128.8W 14.6N 130.5W 15.5N 132.0W
BAMM 12.6N 126.8W 13.6N 128.6W 14.8N 130.3W 15.9N 131.9W
LBAR 12.6N 126.8W 13.5N 128.8W 14.9N 131.0W 16.1N 133.0W
SHIP 70KTS 84KTS 96KTS 99KTS
DSHP 70KTS 84KTS 96KTS 99KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090807 0000 090808 0000 090809 0000 090810 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.2N 134.0W 18.9N 138.7W 20.6N 144.6W 21.5N 150.0W
BAMD 16.3N 133.8W 17.3N 138.3W 18.6N 143.9W 20.5N 148.0W
BAMM 16.9N 133.7W 18.5N 138.3W 20.1N 143.9W 21.7N 148.4W
LBAR 17.1N 135.1W 18.0N 139.4W 18.4N 144.6W 19.8N 149.4W
SHIP 98KTS 86KTS 73KTS 62KTS
DSHP 98KTS 86KTS 73KTS 62KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.6N LONCUR = 126.8W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 12.0N LONM12 = 124.9W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.6N LONM24 = 122.2W
WNDCUR = 70KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 985MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 140NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 45NM RD34NW = 60NM

[wxmann_91]

Agree with Derek here. Actually it almost looked like it was trying to go annular with those microwave shots earlier today. My biggest concern for Felicia is the shearing influence from Enrique's outflow, which halted the RIC it underwent early this morning and eroded the eastern portions of the CDO. As long as Enrique exists and is moving faster than Felicia, I don't see the latter becoming a Major, or at least a higher-end one.

Exhibit A: bye-bye eastern half of storm:

[Derek Ortt]

that is cat 3. Cat 3 starts at 97KT

It is not reasonable, IMO until Enrique dies

[HURAKAN]

Looking good

[Derek Ortt]

I also don't believe that this will get to 21.5N north either

I suspect we will see a fairly steady state cyclone for a couple of days until Enrique dies, followed by slight intensification. Cat 1 nearing the Big Island on Monday seems most reasonable at this time

[Ed Mahmoud]

18Z GFDL doesn't seem to show Enrique in outer grid.

Enrique GFDL shows Felicia having Enrique for dinner. With some fava beans and a nice chianti.

[MGC]

From the looks of it, I'd say Felicia is slowly intensifying this evening. Convection is strong in the eastern simi-circle and it appears the convection contuines to build. Felicia is becoming the dom in this pair. The weak ULL to Felicia's west is overcoming the sear caused by the TS to Felicia's east. Felicia is moving to the NW currently and should pass north of the 05/06 UTC forecast point. I'm thinking the ridge to Felicia's north is a bit weaker than forecast due in part to Enrique. Look for continued slow intensification the next day or two......MGC

[I-wall]

Looks to me like Enrique is already dying. The appearance looks much worse than it did earlier today and the cloud tops have warmed considerably. Felicia continues to look impressive and I think she will continue to strenghten. I was really hoping for the pinwheel scenario. Damn.

[I-wall]

Looks like an eye is starting to pop on IR imagery. Lookin good.

I think the wind speeds will be increased at the next advisory.

[brunota2003]

Eye see you too, Felicia...and you ish pretty ^^ Eye is seen on visible (cloud covered, but there) and on IR (including a very slim part that is convection free). I'm guessing right now 85 mph.

[Derek Ortt]

The entire northern eyewall has been eroded based upon the latest TMI imagery. If anything, Felicia has weakened.

65KT at the most right now

[HURAKAN]

892
WTPZ23 KNHC 050239
TCMEP3
HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
0300 UTC WED AUG 05 2009

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 127.2W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 45SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 127.2W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 126.8W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 13.4N 128.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.4N 130.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.3N 132.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.1N 133.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.5N 138.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 75SW 105NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 18.0N 143.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 18.0N 149.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 127.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



502
WTPZ33 KNHC 050242
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009

...FELICIA CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY...

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.2 WEST OR ABOUT
1335 MILES...2145 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

FELICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FELICIA
IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE
SCALE. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND FELICIA COULD BECOME
A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.8N 127.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


008
WTPZ43 KNHC 050245
TCDEP3
HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT FELICIA HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
A BAND OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS HAS DEVELOPED EAST OF THE CENTER AND
WRAPPED MORE THAN HALFWAY AROUND AN EYE THAT IS NOW APPARENT IN
INFRARED IMAGERY. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND A DATA-T NUMBER OF
5.0 FROM A 0130 UTC SPECIAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATION BY TAFB...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 85 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.

FELICIA APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN AND JOGGED TOWARD THE WEST
EARLIER TODAY AS IT BEGAN INTENSIFYING...HOWEVER THE CYCLONE NOW
APPEARS TO BE MOVING ALONG A HEADING OF 285/10...SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED ALONG 130W IS ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY AMPLIFIED DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH LOCATED OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND
MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALLOWING THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO RE-BUILD NORTH OF FELICIA IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.
MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST AT DAYS 4 AND 5. LATE IN THE PERIOD...FELICIA'S TRACK MAY
BE IMPACTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT DEVELOPS NORTHEAST OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITION AND INTENSITY OF THIS
FEATURE AND ITS IMPACT ON THE CYCLONE'S TRACK. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SHIFTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE INITIAL POSITION AND A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS...TVCN.

RAPID INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE CONTINUING...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING DURING
THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX
SHOWS A 45 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 30-KT INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE THIS IS LOWER THAN IT WAS WITH THE LAST
PACKAGE...IT IS STILL 6 TIMES GREATER THAN THE SAMPLE MEAN. THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INTENSITY
OF FELICIA...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOVE EVEN THE HIGHER
SHIPS GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE BASED ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE
TRENDS. LATER IN THE PERIOD THE CYCLONE WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER
WATERS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW WEAKENING AT DAY 3 AND
BEYOND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0300Z 12.8N 127.2W 85 KT
12HR VT 05/1200Z 13.4N 128.8W 95 KT
24HR VT 06/0000Z 14.4N 130.5W 100 KT
36HR VT 06/1200Z 15.3N 132.2W 100 KT
48HR VT 07/0000Z 16.1N 133.9W 95 KT
72HR VT 08/0000Z 17.5N 138.0W 85 KT
96HR VT 09/0000Z 18.0N 143.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 10/0000Z 18.0N 149.5W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[I-wall]

The entire northern eyewall has been eroded based upon the latest TMI imagery. If anything, Felicia has weakened.

65KT at the most right now

No fair. You have special tools at your dispense. Kidding.....thanks for the info Derek. That's interesting to know. I thought for certain she was still picking up steam.

[HURAKAN]

Felicia continues to produce intense convection around the center

[Derek Ortt]

This does not look like an 85KT hurricane. It looks more like a 55KT TS

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... egreeticks

[cycloneye]

Brennan upgraded the winds based on this at discussion.

DATA-T NUMBER OF
5.0 FROM A 0130 UTC SPECIAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATION BY TAFB

[HurricaneJoe22]

Wowzers....from a 30 kt TD last night to an 85 kt hurricane tonight....wowzers