CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA (08E)

[Iune]

Felicia is beginning to have Enrique for a meal

[Cookie]

Felicia is beginning to have Enrique for a meal

some great images

[cycloneye]

Enrique and Felicia are separating more and more,so I dont see interaction between them.

[HurricaneRobert]

Is that disturbance on the far right of the image supposed to develop?

[Iune]

[cycloneye]

The only change in this update is way down the data.



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 AUG 2009 Time : 190000 UTC
Lat : 14:15:00 N Lon : 129:24:51 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 940.6mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.3 6.4 6.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

Center Temp : +10.8C Cloud Region Temp : -66.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : [b]ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... dt08E.html
[/b]

[cycloneye]

485
WTPZ43 KNHC 052038
TCDEP3
HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
200 PM PDT WED AUG 05 2009

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 1800 UTC FROM TAFB AND
SAB REMAINED AT T6.0 AND T5.0... RESPECTIVELY... WHILE
DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLES AROUND A WELL-DEFINED EYE. THEREFORE... RAISED THE
INITIAL INTENSITY A LITTLE FURTHER TO 110 KT WHILE DECREASING THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE TO 940 MB.

AGAIN... LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED TO THE INITIAL HEADING OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH
OF FELICIA REMAINS IN PLACE. A MORE WESTERLY TRACK IS EXPECTED BY
DAYS 3 AND BEYOND AS THIS TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS
UNITED STATES AND IS REPLACED BY A MID-LEVEL HIGH CURRENTLY
CENTERED NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SHEAR... FELICIA
WILL LIKELY BE WEAKENING BY THAT POINT AND WILL BECOME MORE
STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE LOWER-LEVEL TRADE WINDS. FOLLOWING A
REASONABLY TIGHT MODEL CONSENSUS... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST.

THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND FELICIA REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR THE STORM TO
MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE OVER THE
NEXT DAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW NEAR
CALIFORNIA IS INDUCING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT SHOULD REMAIN
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNTIL THE NORTHWESTERLY
TRACK OF THE STORM TAKES THE CENTER OVER COOLER WATERS. THIS
DECREASE IN OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND A FORECAST INCREASE IN
VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING DAYS 3 THROUGH
5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/2100Z 14.5N 129.7W 110 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 15.2N 130.9W 115 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 16.7N 132.4W 110 KT
36HR VT 07/0600Z 17.8N 134.0W 105 KT
48HR VT 07/1800Z 19.0N 136.1W 95 KT
72HR VT 08/1800Z 20.2N 140.9W 70 KT
96HR VT 09/1800Z 20.5N 146.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 10/1800Z 20.2N 152.5W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER PEREIRA

[Derek Ortt]

The MPI over the "cold waters" east of Hawaii is still cat 3/4, so I am not convinced that SST alone will weaken this

what may do the trick is SHIPS ramping up the shear to > 25KT at the end of the period

[Ed Mahmoud]

The MPI over the "cold waters" east of Hawaii is still cat 3/4, so I am not convinced that SST alone will weaken this

what may do the trick is SHIPS ramping up the shear to > 25KT at the end of the period

I can recall from discussions systems holding their own over water a tad bit cooler than the supposed magic 26 to 27ºC.

I am wondering, an impression I get which may not be scientifically correct, that when a system gets strong enough, the upper level anticyclone that builds aloft can help protect against shear.


12Z GFDL has this as barely a tropical storm at tau 126, and it isn't quite to Hawai'i yet.

[cycloneye]

Hawaii is in the cone.

[HURAKAN]

Is the NHC having problems that the HPC is issuing the advisories?

[HURAKAN]

Looks very happy.

(Felicia comes from feliz, which is Spanish for Happy!)

[Derek Ortt]

looking at some guidance, this may have the chance to take the full Fernanda path and pass north of Hawaii

[CrazyC83]

940mb would normally be 120-125 kt when there isn't Recon around to verify...I wonder if an obs was taken? This doesn't seem to be so big that it would have an abnormal pressure-wind relationship...

[WmE]

940mb would normally be 120-125 kt when there isn't Recon around to verify...I wonder if an obs was taken? This doesn't seem to be so big that it would have an abnormal pressure-wind relationship...

They had Bertha last year also with an unusually low pressure for a Cat 3, without recon clarification. Perhaps the ambient pressure in this area is low.

[I-wall]

Looks like the eye is starting to contract and the cloud tops around the center have cooled...I think its still getting stronger.

[CrazyC83]

Looks like the eye is starting to contract and the cloud tops around the center have cooled...I think its still getting stronger.

My guess right now is 125 kt. I think it looks similar to Ike at peak intensity in the far-out Atlantic.

[MGC]

Concur....Felicia still appears to be intensifying and I would not be surprised if the hurricane aquires Cat-4 status sometime tonight....MGC

[jinftl]

If Felicia follows the forecast track, she will have an extended amount of time over cooler and cooler water....and perhaps more importantly, water that is robbed of any oceanic heat content (the depth of warm water that can be like steroids to a storm).





NHC puts probability of Felicia being a hurricane in 120 hours at 4%. At this time, the bigger question would seem to be whether we will have a tropical depression or a weakening ts on our hands when Hawaii is in sight.

[Derek Ortt]

again... see Fernanda and the MPI

The shear is the issue, not so much the SST in this case