Re: Wave in Southeastern GOM

#1 Postby **tailgater** » Mon Aug 03, 2009 3:44 pm

The wave currently over the Dominican Republic Sure doesn't look like much right and may never develop but does have a little twist in the lower levels.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... g8vorZ.GIF
Nam shows a strong wave appoaching Fla. in a few days.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_054l.gif
I doubt anything will become of this but it something a little closer to home to keep an eye on till the CV storm gets on this side of 50W.
Another view of NAM

#2 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Aug 03, 2009 3:55 pm

The Continental jet that encountered severe turbulence was crossing this wave axis when they hit the turbulence. Not much convection, but lots of vertical motion.

#3 Postby **tailgater** » Mon Aug 03, 2009 4:01 pm

Here's a couple more model runs
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/e ... c_mslp.gif
http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/W ... ar_000.jpg
Still don't trust these models that much.

#4 Postby **tailgater** » Tue Aug 04, 2009 5:21 am

00 WRF

weak low shown on ETA

06 Nam open wave this run

Still looks like nothing sat loops.

cyclonic chronic · #5 Postby **cyclonic chronic** » Wed Aug 05, 2009 7:47 am

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2009/

DISCUSSION...A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED IN THE
ATLANTIC WHILE EXTENDING INTO FLORIDA. ALSO, A WEAK AND WEAKENING
TROPICAL WAVE IS PUSHING INTO S FL WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE
EASTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS NOTED IN THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD JOURNEY TODAY ACROSS
S FL A LITTLE AHEAD OF SCHEDULE, YET ONLY SLIGHTLY INCREASING MOISTURE
LEVELS AT IT PASSES. ALONG THE EAST COAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TODAY, BUT BY AFTERNOON THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST COAST AS
DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS AND THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND. THE WAVE
IS THEN EXPECTED TO PASS IN THE GULF AND BECOME MORE STRETCHED OUT
AS IT ENTERS THE DEFORMATION ZONE IN THE RIDGE. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE REGIONAL WEATHER
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS OCCURRING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AS DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP MINIMAL POPS
ALONG THE EAST COAST, WHICH WILL MAINLY OCCUR IN THE MORNING HOURS
AND HIGH END SCT ALONG THE GULF COAST, WHICH WILL MAINLY OCCUR IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH MAY
BRUSH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS
AND CONVECTION. NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE GFS'S HIGH SCT TO
NUMEROUS POPS AS THIS WAS WHAT WAS ADVERTISED WITH THE PAST TWO
WAVES, BUT THE GFS INDICATES THAT THE DEEP RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO
SHIFT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR A MORE
MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE, YET THIS REMAINS TO BE SEEN. SUNDAY
ON, THE CONTINUED EAST FLOW WILL KEEP S FL IN A FAIRLY STAGNANT
PATTERN WITH ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE EAST AND SCT TSRA ALONG THE
WEST COAST MUCH LIKE WHAT IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAy.

#6 Postby **tailgater** » Wed Aug 05, 2009 10:55 am

Yeah Looks like it's passing South Fla. w/o much fanfare just a little increase in the showers. Models over did this also.
Vis. sat. loops show a little twist in the lower clouds trying to shoot the gap between the Isle of Youth and south Cooba.

dolebot_Broward_NW · #7 Postby **dolebot_Broward_NW** » Wed Aug 05, 2009 11:04 am

Had a sunshower earlier, just a quick passing wettening of the pavement. Then misery as the heat baked it off.

It is VERY hot in south fla today.

cpdaman · #8 Postby **cpdaman** » Wed Aug 05, 2009 11:29 am

dolebot_Broward_NW wrote:Had a sunshower earlier, just a quick passing wettening of the pavement. Then misery as the heat baked it off.

It is VERY hot in south fla today.

how far west of the metro areas are you.....seems like the same heat we have been having everyday for last 5 weeks or so.....i'm visiting my parents in western parkland (bout 12 miles or so from the coast) and it is another hot one probably 94-95 this afternoon......i hear even further west gets like 96-97 or so everyday. they are far enough inland to really heat up and not get much relief from seabreeze....but not far enough inland to get the interior t'storms that usually consolidate over everglades under the influence of a upper level easterly flow.

storms are a bit more consolidated just west of the coast near PBI......early this afternoon ...prolly to move out by lake soon

dolebot_Broward_NW · #9 Postby **dolebot_Broward_NW** » Wed Aug 05, 2009 1:08 pm

Marina mile area - sr84/turnpike, but I live in tamarac at university/mcnab. 92 degrees with a 74 degree dewpoint is measured outside. Heat index is 102. Its a tad warmer than usual it would seem. (3 day history shows 89/71, 90/72 and 92/72 the past 3 days) I blame the wave.

#10 Postby **tailgater** » Wed Aug 05, 2009 5:46 pm

Wave axis looks to moving into southern GOM, nice inflow.

#11 Postby **tailgater** » Thu Aug 06, 2009 11:43 am

Radar loop shows a weak little spin west of Key West.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes
The last 2 runs of the NAM show some deep moisture headed to either Texas or La.
06 run
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
12 run
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

#12 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu Aug 06, 2009 11:57 am

Interesting! The 06z run is faster and further west than the 12z run by one day and about 200 miles. OTTOMH, it appears to me that the 12z run is more likely based on current weather patterns and their expected evolution here. Will be interesting to watch since the 06z run appears to try to spin up something just off the coast at "landfall".

Ed Mahmoud · #13 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Thu Aug 06, 2009 12:08 pm

Not super impressive on visible satellite loop

NAM simulated radar suggests it sort of almost tries to look like something interesting before moving into Louisiana

Ed Mahmoud · #14 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Thu Aug 06, 2009 2:00 pm

Convection over water really fading.

Might come back when land based storms weaken after dark.

DanKellFla · #15 Postby **DanKellFla** » Thu Aug 06, 2009 6:44 pm

Bring it on, we need the rain!!!

#16 Postby **srainhoutx** » Thu Aug 06, 2009 8:40 pm

We too. Hoping for some moisture in SE TX, Central TX, and S TX. :wink:

#17 Postby **tailgater** » Thu Aug 06, 2009 10:21 pm

T-storms starting to refire.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes
none of the models show this doing more than bringing some moisture to the Northern Gulf coast now so I'll let this thread die on out, unless I wake up to surprise. :cheesy:

Sanibel · #18 Postby **Sanibel** » Fri Aug 07, 2009 9:47 am

Captain Kirk, I'm convinced this convection over us for the second day is the switch turning on. Only it is sputtering because of the year's negative atmosphere.

mattpetre · #19 Postby **mattpetre** » Fri Aug 07, 2009 3:07 pm

What is that in the Central Western GOM? Just an ULL? Or is that spinning indicative of other possible development?

#20 Postby **tailgater** » Fri Aug 07, 2009 3:13 pm

mattpetre wrote:What is that in the Central Western GOM? Just an ULL? Or is that spinning indicative of other possible development?

Yes that is a ULL, but this Might be something to watch if it continues to produce convection.