Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 051500
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1100 AM AST WED AUG 5 2009

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
DETECTED A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL
WATERS...WITH SOME BRIEFLY BRUSHING ONE OR TWO OF THE ISLANDS FROM
TIME TO TIME. THE WIND WAS MAINLY FROM THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER LAND...BUT MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES.

$$

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
114 PM AST WED AUG 5 2009

PRC031-033-061-127-139-052015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0200.090805T1714Z-090805T2015Z/
/00000.N..000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TRUJILLO ALTO PR-GUAYNABO PR-CAROLINA PR-CATANO PR-SAN JUAN PR-
114 PM AST WED AUG 5 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
TRUJILLO ALTO...GUAYNABO...CAROLINA...CATANO AND SAN JUAN

* UNTIL 415 PM AST

* AT 110 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. THE HEAVY RAIN WAS THE RESULT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
ADVISORY AREAS...AND THIS WILL CAUSE QUICK RISES IN RIVER AND
STREAMS...AS WELL AS FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1841 6613 1845 6615 1847 6614 1839 6598
1834 6602

$$

CASTRO

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
248 PM AST WED AUG 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE
IS TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER HISPANIOLA BY THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...TROPICAL WAVE JUST EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND ACROSS THE ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTED THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO DEVELOPED OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THESE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWEST AND AFFECT THE NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BEFORE 4 PM. MOS OF THESE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET.

A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND WILL START TO INTERACT WITH THE TUTT NOW
LOCATED NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTION
ACTIVITY NEAR THE AXIS OF THE WAVE...INCREASING THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.
THE QPF FROM HPC SUGGEST MOST OF THE WEATHER ACTIVITY TO OCCUR
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVER EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND
USVI. THIS COINCIDE WITH THE LATEST NAM MODEL RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. FEW PASSING SHRA AND LOW LEVEL CLDS WILL MOVE
WESTWARDS ACROSS FLYING AREA BTWN THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT...AND MAY BRIEFLY BRUSH PARTS OF
STX...STT AND THE NORTHEAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF SJU.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 3 TO 6 FEET ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS. A SLIGHT WIND INCREASE IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS A
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...THIS WILL INCREASE
SEA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

[cycloneye]

Hello Barbara.I put in the first post of the thread the web cam from ST Maarten that you posted.By having the cam at the first post of the tent,it will be much more easy to find it than looking for it going thru the many pages this thread has.

[Gustywind]

Always looking to our east (red underlining)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 051759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WESTWARD 10
KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN
24W-30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NOTED.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NOTED.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 10N24W 12N33W 8N39W 9N60W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION AND SHOWERS ALREADY MENTIONED IN THE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 11N-14N
BETWEEN 14W-20W. A 1012 MB LOW IS NEAR 11N33W MOVING WEST AT 10
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NW OF
THE CENTER FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 33W-37W.

[Gustywind]

FXCA62 TJSJ 051848
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
248 PM AST WED AUG 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE
IS TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER HISPANIOLA BY THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...TROPICAL WAVE JUST EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND ACROSS THE ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTED THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO DEVELOPED OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THESE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWEST AND AFFECT THE NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BEFORE 4 PM. MOS OF THESE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET.

A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND WILL START TO INTERACT WITH THE TUTT NOW
LOCATED NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTION
ACTIVITY NEAR THE AXIS OF THE WAVE...INCREASING THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.
THE QPF FROM HPC SUGGEST MOST OF THE WEATHER ACTIVITY TO OCCUR
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVER EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND
USVI. THIS COINCIDE WITH THE LATEST NAM MODEL RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. FEW PASSING SHRA AND LOW LEVEL CLDS WILL MOVE
WESTWARDS ACROSS FLYING AREA BTWN THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT...AND MAY BRIEFLY BRUSH PARTS OF
STX...STT AND THE NORTHEAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF SJU.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 3 TO 6 FEET ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS. A SLIGHT WIND INCREASE IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS A
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...THIS WILL INCREASE
SEA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.


&&

[Gustywind]

Always looking to our east (red underlining)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 051759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WESTWARD 10
KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN
24W-30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NOTED.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NOTED.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 10N24W 12N33W 8N39W 9N60W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION AND SHOWERS ALREADY MENTIONED IN THE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 11N-14N
BETWEEN 14W-20W. A 1012 MB LOW IS NEAR 11N33W MOVING WEST AT 10
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NW OF
THE CENTER FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 33W-37W.

All seems quiet in the Atlantic while we're slightly approaching the peak of the season...so let's enjoy the sun and it pleasures

000
ABNT20 KNHC 052332
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Gustywind]

LATEST TROPICAL DISCUSSION
000
AXNT20 KNHC 052357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED AUG 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 8 KT. THIS
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AS SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE REMAINS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. ON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THIS WAVE EXHIBITS A
MOISTURE MAXIMUM THAT IS BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE LESSER
ANTILLES. ALTHOUGH NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED TO THE WEST AND REMAINS RATHER
ILL-DEFINED AS IT HAS TRACKED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THE
PAST 24 HOURS. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED AS TRACES OF SAHARAN
DUST FOLLOW TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 13N32W 12N35W 9N40W 8N43W
8N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N
BETWEEN 13W-21W. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N34W MOVING W
AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
PRIMARILY NW OF THE CENTER FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 34W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...
CARIBBEAN SEA...
ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW
NORTH ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO NEAR ARUBA. DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN
BETWEEN 66W-78W. HOWEVER...THIS UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL PUERTO RICO AND IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 17N E OF THE MONA PASSAGE. ALSO AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND
COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS
THE NE CARIBBEAN...INCREASED SHOWERS AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
$$
HUFFMAN

[Gustywind]

More showers but no deep convection associated with this twave along the 60W

[Gustywind]

Let's take a look of Africa and the twave activity...


James Wilson, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 5, 2009 6:23 pm ETThe Atlantic remains relatively quiet.

An area of low pressure in the Central Atlantic will be monitored the next few days to see if it can hold together or be sheared.
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

Seems that the next twave that will emerge during the next 24H supports juicy and concentrated convection

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
913 PM AST WED AUG 5 2009


.DISCUSSION...MOIST PATTERN UNDERWAY FOR THE NEXT 26-36 HOURS AS
U/L LOW BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST OF LOCAL AREA.
OBSERVATIONS FROM HEAVY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON
INDICATE GOOD U/L PVA AND DIFFLUENCE LIKELY ASSISTED DEEP
CONVECTION AND VERY FREQUENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. FOR
TOMORROW...UPPER LEVEL PVA MAY NOT BE QUITE AS PRONOUNCED BUT WILL
STILL BE A LARGE FACTOR AIDING IN VENTILATION OF DEEP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE MODERATE OVER AREA AS
WAVE MOVES CLOSER TO FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 18Z. EXPECTING AT
LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE TO HIT THE VI BY LATE MORNING...SPREADING
WEST AND BECOMING NUMEROUS OVER PUERTO RICO BY AFTERNOON. FLOODING
THREAT WILL BE MODERATE...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING TODAY`S PRIMING OF
SOIL MOISTURE FROM HEAVY RAINS.

AFTER WAVE AXIS PASSES TOMORROW...WIND SURGE VIA AFRICAN EASTERLY
JET ON BACK SIDE OF WAVE MOVES IN WITH NAM12 SHOWING 25 TO 30
KNOTS AT 850MB OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. ALSO BEHIND
WAVE...SHOULD BE ANOTHER SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY HAZY AREA OF
SAHARAN DUST. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY...HAZY AND BREEZY FOR
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.

Good night to all.Tomorrow looks like an active weather day here.

[Gustywind]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
913 PM AST WED AUG 5 2009


.DISCUSSION...MOIST PATTERN UNDERWAY FOR THE NEXT 26-36 HOURS AS
U/L LOW BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST OF LOCAL AREA.
OBSERVATIONS FROM HEAVY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON
INDICATE GOOD U/L PVA AND DIFFLUENCE LIKELY ASSISTED DEEP
CONVECTION AND VERY FREQUENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. FOR
TOMORROW...UPPER LEVEL PVA MAY NOT BE QUITE AS PRONOUNCED BUT WILL
STILL BE A LARGE FACTOR AIDING IN VENTILATION OF DEEP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE MODERATE OVER AREA AS
WAVE MOVES CLOSER TO FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 18Z. EXPECTING AT
LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE TO HIT THE VI BY LATE MORNING...SPREADING
WEST AND BECOMING NUMEROUS OVER PUERTO RICO BY AFTERNOON. FLOODING
THREAT WILL BE MODERATE...ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING TODAY`S PRIMING OF
SOIL MOISTURE FROM HEAVY RAINS.

AFTER WAVE AXIS PASSES TOMORROW...WIND SURGE VIA AFRICAN EASTERLY
JET ON BACK SIDE OF WAVE MOVES IN WITH NAM12 SHOWING 25 TO 30
KNOTS AT 850MB OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. ALSO BEHIND
WAVE...SHOULD BE ANOTHER SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY HAZY AREA OF
SAHARAN DUST. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY...HAZY AND BREEZY FOR
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.

Good night to all.Tomorrow looks like an active weather day here.

Good night to you Luis , good job as usual, tkanks for all, yeah active weather tommorow... so take your umbrella

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all the Caribbean friends.An active rainy day is expected here as wave interacts with upper trough.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
430 AM AST THU AUG 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW LOCATED NEAR 24N67W TO MEANDER N OF PR FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE WEAKENING OVR THE WEEKEND. IN THE
LOW LEVELS...TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 62W TO INTERACT WITH TUTT LOW TO
THE WEST AND ENHANCE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES NEXT 12 HRS. STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD SW INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY FRI
BRINGING A MUCH DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO
AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND WITH SOME HAZE/DUST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST IS CURRENTLY VOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION...HOWEVER AS WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA
AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST ANTICIPATE
THAT WAVE WILL GET CONVECTIVELY MORE ACTIVE. MOISTURE IS ALSO FCST
TO INCREASE TODAY WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO NEAR 2.0 INCHES. ALL OF
THESE FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN IMPROVING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT 12 HRS. BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY IS
EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE CVRG AND RAINFALL AMTS AS A VERY STRONG BAND
OF VERTICAL SHEAR IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO EXTEND FROM THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS ACROSS THE ANEGADA PASSAGE INTO THE ATLC WATERS
NORTH OF 20N WHICH COULD ACT TO DISPLACE CONVECTION WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST AND KEEP IT OVER THE USVI AND ADJACENT WATERS. THIS IS
WAS IT IS SUGGESTED IN THE LATEST 03Z SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLES AND
00Z GFS. THE POTENTIAL IS DEFINITELY THERE FOR AN ACTIVE DAY GIVEN
FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE HOWEVER LOTS OF UNCERTAINTIES STILL REMAIN
AS TO HOW WAVE WILL EXACTLY INTERACT WITH STRONG SHEAR OVER THE
ANEGADA PASSAGE. FCST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VERY WET HPC
FCST FROM YESTERDAY AND THE SOMEWHAT "DRIER" GFS/NAM MODELS. IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN A WETTER SCENARIO THAT IS ALREADY
PORTRAYED THEN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WOULD THEN LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

FCST GETS A LOT EASIER FOR THE WEEKEND AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
SW IN TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND SAHARAN LAYER AIR MOVES IN
BRINGING A MUCH DRIER/STABLE AIR MASS. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR MOST AIRPORTS TODAY IN
IN THE VICINITY OF HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA. DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND BUT WITH HAZE/DUST.

&&

.MARINE...FCST WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED AND
SEAS UP TO 6 FT. EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENTS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

[Gustywind]

Good morning to all glad to see you in shape
Here is a sat pic of the Lesser Antilles:

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 060920
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST THU AUG 6 2009

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. A FEW PASSING SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS
ONE OR TWO OF THE ISLANDS AND PRODUCED BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WERE REPORTED. THE WIND WAS MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 MPH.

FOR TODAY..GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING AN
APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES.

$$

[Gustywind]

What's up in the East Atlantic?
Let's take a look of the twave activity
000
AXNT20 KNHC 060605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU AUG 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W TO THE SOUTH OF
16N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IN ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W TO THE SOUTH
OF 15N MOVING WEST 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W TO THE
SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD
THE AREA THAT ALREADY IS COVERED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...ALONG
24N66W 19N66W 16N67W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W TO THE SOUTH
OF CUBA MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS IN THE AREA OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS NOT EASY TO DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN
PRECIPITATION JUST WITH THE WAVE AND PRECIPITATION THAT JUST
IS RELATED TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE
WEST OF 75W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 13N32W 7N50W INTO
NORTHWESTERN GUYANA/NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 8N60W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
30W...AND FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. A 1012 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N34W...MOVING NORTHWEST 15 KT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 37W AND 40W.
$$
MT

[Gustywind]

Latest tropical weather discussion
000
AXNT20 KNHC 061105
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N31W 13N30W 8N31W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM
13N TO 14N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N48W 11N45W 6N45W
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N65W 13N64W
8N63W MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD
THE AREA THAT ALREADY IS COVERED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...
ALONG 24N66W 19N66W 16N67W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE GOES FROM JAMAICA TO 15N77W
TO 9N75W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 11N16W TO 11N35W 8N50W INTO
NORTHWESTERN GUYANA/NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 8N61W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
40W...AND FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH
GOES FROM 14N34W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 12N38W
TO 8N41W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 36W AND 43W.

[Gustywind]

Latest tropical weather discussion
000
AXNT20 KNHC 061105
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N31W 13N30W 8N31W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM
13N TO 14N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N48W 11N45W 6N45W
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N65W 13N64W
8N63W MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD
THE AREA THAT ALREADY IS COVERED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...
ALONG 24N66W 19N66W 16N67W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE GOES FROM JAMAICA TO 15N77W
TO 9N75W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 11N16W TO 11N35W 8N50W INTO
NORTHWESTERN GUYANA/NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 8N61W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
40W...AND FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH
GOES FROM 14N34W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 12N38W
TO 8N41W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 36W AND 43W.

[Gustywind]

Atlantinc continues to be pretty quiet, so once again let's enjoy everyday our tropical paradise
Wayne Verno, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 6, 2009 5:09 am ET
A couple of weak tropical waves were moving west across the Atlantic tropical basin, but they were mostly void of any shower or thunderstorm activity. The Atlantic basin is forecast to remain quiet through the weekend.
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 061132
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN