Disturbance In Eastern Caribbean.

[Blown Away]

Little pop of convection to the S of the main blob, let's see if it persists.

[Gustywind]

James Wilson, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 5, 2009 6:23 pm ET The Atlantic remains relatively quiet.
An area of low pressure in the Central Atlantic will be monitored the next few days to see if it can hold together or be sheared.

[Blown Away]

IMO, this low deserves a "Code Yellow". Convection is really popping tonight.

[gatorcane]

IMO, this low deserves a "Code Yellow". Convection is really popping tonight.

I would wait 24 hours before assigning any code. Looks to me like it could be one of those situations where we see convection pop and then wane until the area finally fizzles. In this case there is alot of dry air it is heading into then the shear increases down the road also.

[Blown Away]

IMO, this low deserves a "Code Yellow". Convection is really popping tonight.

I would wait 24 hours before assigning any code. Looks to me like it could be one of those situations where we see convection pop and then wane until the area finally fizzles. In this case there is alot of dry air it is heading into then the shear increases down the road also.

I don't deny the dry air and marginal shear, but this wave has maintained this convection all day long and it's improving this evening. The low is actually down near 11-12N / 33-34W and I see the convection building closer to this area. The convection had been well removed from the general area of the low this afternoon. IMO, convection holds tonight we will see "Code Yellow" at 8am.

[floridasun78]

let see how it look on thur i bet what nhc doing too

[cycloneye]

The 00 UTC surface analysis by TAFB still has the low.

[tolakram]

Look at the shear!

[Windtalker1]

Just wanted to pass along a little tidbit........Since 1995, we had 2 seasons that started July 31st or after, 2000 & 2004.
Each had 15 named storms with 2000 having 8 Hurricanes and 2004 having 9 Hurricanes.

[Stormcenter]

I hear what you are saying but IMO this season doesn't seem to be headed in that direction at all so far.

Just wanted to pass along a little tidbit........Since 1995, we had 2 seasons that started July 31st or after, 2000 & 2004.
Each had 15 named storms with 2000 having 8 Hurricanes and 2004 having 9 Hurricanes.

[Sanibel]

The dry mid-Atlantic air is diving in front of it. I would normally hedge for development on this type of disturbance but 2009 gives little reason to. Perhaps it will survive and burst further west. It's about 10 days early for Andrew timing.

[jinftl]

2000 is an ideal example of a season where the number of storms doesn't always lead to a season being 'bad' or even memorable. With 15 named storms and 8 hurricanes, the total damage caused by all 15 was $1.2 billion.

Does anyone remember what the costliest storm of the 15 named ones was in 2000?

Tropical Storm Leslie. Caused almost $1 billion in damage in Florida. The other 14 storms, included in that are 3 majors, caused the remaining $200 million in damage, or 0.25% of the damage Katrina alone caused in 2005


All it takes is one storm to make a season memorable and devastating.

Just wanted to pass along a little tidbit........Since 1995, we had 2 seasons that started July 31st or after, 2000 & 2004.
Each had 15 named storms with 2000 having 8 Hurricanes and 2004 having 9 Hurricanes.

[cycloneye]

Still hanhing on.Also you can see the TUTT low north of Puerto Rico.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not much model support.

At 180 hours, Canadian has it in the ballpark of Jamaica in the Caribbean, and the Western Caribbean has shear below 16 knots. GFS tracks it into the vicinity of Hispaniola before it seems to lose it.

If it follows the Canadian scenario, something could try to develop in the Western Caribbean or Eastern Pacific, but Canadian depicted 700 to 500 mb mean relative humidities aren't favorable looking.

The Canadian does close off an isobar a couple of times before the Caribbean, but only intermittently.

[Blown Away]

I wake up and find my low still generating convection. If I recall correctly, wasn't this the low that the GFS predicted would break off from the original wave and move NW? This low is still moving W and if it stays on that path maybe it will avoid the stronger shear ahead of it. Luis, do you ever sleep? I goto work yesterday, goto bed last night, and wake up this morning and your still the moderator! Your the man!

[Gustywind]

Look at the shear!

Humm...looks like Olympics Shear Games not an east trip for this low in this hostile environnement. Folks... i don't know if the famous french hurddler Doucouré could pass them

[Gustywind]

I wake up and find my low still generating convection. If I recall correctly, wasn't this the low that the GFS predicted would break off from the original wave and move NW? This low is still moving W and if it stays on that path maybe it will avoid the stronger shear ahead of it. Luis, do you ever sleep? I goto work yesterday, goto bed last night, and wake up this morning and your still the moderator! Your the man!

Blown Away this guy is amazing always there, is not a moderator for nothing! It's always a pleasure to read his posts and be informed. He's not the man but the SUPERMAN ... he pushes him self everyday, nos te felicitan Luis por tu presencia

[wxman57]

Nothing there to be concerned about (or hopeful for). Just a few thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave. There's no "low center". Sometimes meteorologists will call disturbances a "low" because the general public don't understand what a tropical disturbance or tropical wave is. We do that ourselves, putting an "L" where there really isn't a low, because the layman sort of understands an "L" can be bad. A tropical wave technically is an "area of low pressure", but it's not a closed low pressure center.

This system doesn't have much of a chance, whether it moves NW or W. There is tremendous low-level shear across the Caribbean in its path to the west, and mid to upper-level shear to the northwest.

Although some past seasons were active after a late start (2000 & 2004), the atmospheric conditions this year are considerably different. The MJO was considerably more active (and stronger) in both seasons, for example. That's not the case in 2009. MJO remains very weak and in the far western Pacific. So don't look for 12-15 named storms. I do expect that there may be a small flurry of development in another week or two. Maybe 2 storms in August. September may see 4-5 storms. Not too far from normal. They'll probably form north of the Caribbean and head out to sea or possibly threaten the southeast U.S.

And watch for something to pop in the Gulf later this month or the first few weeks of September. Conditions in the Gulf aren't as hostile as they are farther south. The thing that's lacking is a disturbance in the region.

[Gustywind]

Wayne Verno, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 6, 2009 5:09 am ET
A couple of weak tropical waves were moving west across the Atlantic tropical basin, but they were mostly void of any shower or thunderstorm activity. The Atlantic basin is forecast to remain quiet through the weekend.
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurri ... om=hp_news

[Gustywind]

Still there...fighting, she's a warrior


Activity of the twaves....