SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[srainhoutx]

Are you sure the local forum is fixed?

We're up and running. Might want save the "direct link" just in case...

http://www.khou.com/forums/viewforum.php?f=9

[TexasSam]

Looks like more rain is working it's way south this evening. I wouldn't mind a nice wet Sunday.

[srainhoutx]

Back to the heat and little rainfall after a 2 week "vacation" across the area. Morning e-mail from Jeff Lindner is not encouraging...

After weakening for 2 weeks allowing clouds, rainfall, and cooler temperatures the heat ridge of summer of 2009 will rebuild over the region starting today.

Little to speak about as strong ridge over the western US shifts/builds eastward into the southern plains in similar fashion to late June 2009. Will go 2-4 degrees warmer than guidance on maximum especially W and SW zones where grounds are baked and vegetation heavily dried. NE zones where rainfall last week was plentiful will go near guidance temps. This suggest 100-105 out west and southwest each day this week, 98-102 Houston and surroundings, and 95-100 NE zones (E of I-45 and N of I-10). Will go ahead and zero out the rain chances as synoptic scale subsidence under the building ridge will squash any hopes of even a small shower…even cloud cover after today will be sparse. Slight rain chances may return by Friday-Saturday as mammoth ridge builds into the SE US allowing deep SE flow to advect moisture into the region…not going to bite just yet as so far this summer the ridge as not given much ground once established and drought feedback processes on the low level air mass is resulting in too high model QPF.

Drought/Heat 2009:

City of Houston records its warmest summer on record…and it is not over!

City of Houston records the driest May-June ever. With only 3.49 inches of rainfall, old record was 4.37 inches in 1931 and the normal would be 13.68 inches!

College Station shattered its old July average record of 88.6 in 1998 with 89.1 for July 2009.

Hobby recorded the warmest July average on record of 86.7 surpassing the old record of 86.6 in 1998.

IAH recorded its second warmest July ever of 87.4 just shy of the 1980 (87.5).

The average temperature for the June/July period at IAh is 86.5 beating out the benchmark summer of 1980 for the warmest “summer” on record minus August.

The warm averages have been more a result on high overnight lows. A total of 10 overnight low maximum records were recorded In July at IAH including a low of only 83 on July 30th.

At Austin the 89.5 degree July average beat the old record of 89.1 from 1860.

At San Antonio the 88.8 July average beat the old record from 1980 and 1998 and is also the warmest July on record since 1885.

Number of July 100 degrees or above days:

New Braunfels: 27
San Antonio: 26
Austin: 26
La Grange: 23
Giddings: 20
IAH: 4
College Station: 23
Hobby: 1
Conroe: 4
Tomball: 4
Sugar Land: 16
Huntsville: 14
Wharton: 9
Brenham: 16
Victoria: 17

Drought:

Historic drought continues across much of S, SC, and SE TX. Current drought monitor shows extreme to exceptional drought conditions over all of S, SC, and portions of SE TX. The worst areas continue to be around Matagorda Bay NW to Austin/San Antonio and now spreading south into deep south Texas. Some areas in SC TX and the coastal bend have not seen rainfall in 60-80 days.

The 23 month period from September 2007 to July 2009 is the driest ever recorded at San Antonio since 1885. Only 24.38 inches of rain has fallen in the last 23 months shattering the previous record of 28.94 inches from Nov 1908 to Sept 1910

[southerngale]

I wish I could find someone who broke everything down like that over here. Interesting stuff.



And yeah, back to the HEAT.

[vbhoutex]

:uarrow: I wish I could find someone who broke everything down like that over here. Interesting stuff.



And yeah, back to the HEAT.

101ºf here at the house today. Still working on 1980 I guess.

[HouTXmetro]

1980 Doesn't stand a chance at this rate

[Ptarmigan]

101ºf here at the house today. Still working on 1980 I guess.

I was not even born in 1980. This cockroach ridge just keeps coming back. It is like the Energizer Bunny, it keeps going and going.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Not that I really look forward to this but for you heated up, way down South, folks here's a gift from the North (and most especially from Emma).

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUPL5j9zmoc[/youtube]

[vbhoutex]

We'll need it since they have issued a heat advisory for tomorrow with HI expected 105ºf-110ºf.

[srainhoutx]

Drought Statement issued by HGX today is quite telling of the haves and have nots in our part of the world...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=HGXDGTHGX

[vbhoutex]

Yep!! The heat is back! Official today was 100ºf while we managed 103ºf here at the house. Even with the rains we have had this month, the yard is starting to show stress again. May have to drag out the sprinklers before the week is out.

[Flyinman]

I know it is a bit early and August is normally one of our hotter months, but what's the guess on our first real front this year. Seems like it used to always be around the middle of September. The weather after Ike was great, but I do not want another Hurricane to bring cooler temps. which was strange in itsdelf.

[srainhoutx]

It really depends on the year. I've seen the first real front hold off until late October (Halloween). One positive about an el nino year is the fronts should make things a bit more interesting as Meteorological Fall/Winter approaches. We certainly could use the moisture in most of TX.

[vbhoutex]

It really depends on the year. I've seen the first real front hold off until late October (Halloween). One positive about an el nino year is the fronts should make things a bit more interesting as Meteorological Fall/Winter approaches. We certainly could use the moisture in most of TX.

Definitely hoping for an "El Nino Fall/Winter" since we are usually wetter during them. Of course the threat of "home growns" until Hurricane Season is over disturbs me some. Like ANYONE in SE TX, I can do without tropical moisture in the form of TC's for MANY years to come.

[Ptarmigan]

At least we have El Nino, which means it will be wetter in the Fall and Winter. Let's hope this Cockroach or Energizer Bunny Ridge goes away once and for all.

[southerngale]

hmmm, I wasn't expecting this.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 666
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2009

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 666 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC005-199-203-241-245-315-347-351-361-365-403-405-419-457-
070100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0666.090806T1750Z-090807T0100Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANGELINA HARDIN HARRISON
JASPER JEFFERSON MARION
NACOGDOCHES NEWTON ORANGE
PANOLA SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE
SHELBY TYLER
$$

[Portastorm]

Looks like y'all have a mesoscale convective system moving westbound from central Louisiana. Hope you get some rain out of it. Send it our way!

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon e-mail from Jeff Lindner...

Dominate upper level ridge starting to give ground with increasing chances for rainfall and cooler daytime highs.

Currently a cluster of thunderstorms is found over C LA moving SSW in NNE steering flow aloft. KLCH sounding is very moist (PW of 2.1in) and unstable with CAPE of 5440, while KCRP is drier and more stable (PW of 1.4in) and CAPE around 4000. Morning visible satellite images showed a decent cumulus field that is now starting to mix out west of I-45 where drier air mass is entraining into shallow updrafts. Cumulus east of I-45 continue to show modest growth indicating this area is comparable to the KLCH sounding while the rest of the area matches closer to KCRP...this is also confirmed through aircraft ascents out of KIAH and KHOU showing a slightly more stable profile.

With that said...SPC has just hoisted a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for all of SW LA and deep E/SE TX up to our eastern counties for the cluster of storms over C LA. The ridge will continue to slide eastward this afternoon allowing upper level subsidence to wane some and a chance that either the storms themselves or their outflows could spark additional development over the region. May also see a few storms fire on the seabreeze across the coastal tier counties.

Rain chances on the upswing into the weekend as the ridge moves eastward allowing a deep SE to S flow throughout the air column. Deep tropical moisture with PWS exceeding 2.2 inches surges into the area on Saturday with the passage of a tropical wave. Expect more and more thunderstorms along the seabreeze each afternoon as subsidence from the ridge weakens and deep moisture enters into the area. Rain chances should peak on Sunday with the wave axis to our west and our area on the moist and "lifted" east side of the wave. Hard to dry out the forecast as fast as models are showing for next week and would like to retain at least slight chances Monday and Tuesday as deeper moisture lingers. While models were correct this week in building the ridge...this ridge is not near as powerful as the one in late June as a few seabreeze showers have been developing...and the models were slightly on the drier side...a new change from the recent months.

[KatDaddy]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for East Texas

A stormy afternoon on tap!

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 666
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
EASTERN TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1250 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES SOUTH OF
LONGVIEW TEXAS TO 55 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF NATCHITOCHES
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER NERN LA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING SWWD THIS AFTERNOON INTO A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WITH MLCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG. LATEST WIND PROFILER AND VAD DATA
INDICATE NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS EXCEEDING 50
KT ABOVE 300 MB. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION AND FAVORABLE STEERING FLOW FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP/SPREAD SSWWD THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A COLD
POOL TO INTENSIFY...AND IF THIS OCCURS DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL
INCREASE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COMBINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 36020.

[Flyinman]

Radar coming alive to our NE. With all moving SSW just maybe we might get some showers. That would be a welcomed surprise.