CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA (08E)

[CrazyC83]

The white ring is back

That suggests it hasn't weakened much at all. Probably still 120-125 kt.

[cycloneye]

947
WTPZ43 KNHC 061441
TCDEP3
HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
800 AM PDT THU AUG 06 2009

CLOUD TOPS HAVE RECENTLY COOLED IN THE EYEWALL OF FELICIA DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS...THOUGH THE EYE TEMPERATURE HAS ALSO COOLED AT THE
SAME TIME. OVERALL...THE CHANGES HAVE BEEN PRETTY SMALL WITH THE
HURRICANE MAINTAINING A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND A SYMMETRICAL OUTFLOW
PATTERN. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE MOSTLY UNCHANGED
AND SUPPORT KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 120 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

SOME WEAKENING OF THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY TO OCCUR SOON AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. HOWEVER...FELICIA
IS DEMONSTRATING SOME ANNULAR HURRICANE CHARACTERISTICS...AND WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
WHICH COULD ENABLE THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY MORE THAN
IT NORMALLY WOULD OVER MARGINAL SSTS. FOR THESE REASONS...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS KEPT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE DURING
THE FIRST 36 HOURS. ALTHOUGH SSTS RISE SLIGHTLY AS THE HURRICANE
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THE WEAKENING
PROCESS. IN FACT...ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT FELICIA
WILL BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...OR DISSIPATED...BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST.

THE ESTIMATED MOVEMENT DURING THE PAST TWELVE HOURS IS 305/9. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE HURRICANE
MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS...RIDGING CURRENTLY NORTH OF HAWAII IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EASTWARD AND CAUSE A WESTWARD TURN OF FELICIA. ASIDE FROM THE
NOGAPS MODEL...WHICH HAS A STRANGE INITIAL INTERACTION BETWEEN
FELICIA AND ENRIQUE...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS FORECAST SCENARIO. IN THE LONGER-RANGE...FELICIA IS EXPECTED
TO BE STEERED A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST AS IT BECOMES A SHALLOWER
SYSTEM AND MORE INFLUENCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/1500Z 16.0N 131.9W 120 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 16.8N 133.0W 115 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 17.9N 134.6W 105 KT
36HR VT 08/0000Z 18.9N 136.7W 85 KT
48HR VT 08/1200Z 19.6N 139.1W 70 KT
72HR VT 09/1200Z 20.0N 144.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 10/1200Z 19.7N 150.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 11/1200Z 19.5N 155.5W 30 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

Visible images coming in

[Ed Mahmoud]

POD:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 061400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT THU 06 AUGUST 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z AUGUST 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-070

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE FELICIA
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49
A. 07/1200Z
B. NOAA9 0108E FELICIA
C. 07/0530Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT
08/1800Z NEAR 19.7N 140.5W. A G-IV MISSION
FOR 08/1200Z.
JWP

[Ed Mahmoud]

Hawai'i to be battered senseless by a 20 knot tropical depression!

[HURAKAN]

Continues to look great

[HurricaneRobert]

That looks better than the earlier one. What about storm surge?

[pojo]

The POD for "tomorrow" has not been released yet (is usually released around 9 am...the last one out was yesterday, today's hasnt been issued yet...........and it is 1 pm). Someone keep an eye on that!

thats because there are likely to be flights added on it

6 hour fixes starting Friday. That probably means two planes, at least.


I wonder if Captain Mitchell will be aboard?

FYI... She's NOT the only Meteorologist on the crew.

[Ed Mahmoud]

.

Its a guy thing. There are hot linkable pictures of Lt. Colonel Madden on the internet, but I didn't feel like hotlinking them.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Canadian has Felicia in excess of 1012 mb, apparently as an open wave, by the time it reaches Hawai'i.


The graphical GFDL isn't up yet, but the text output is...

Code: Select all

WHXX04 KWBC 061724 

CHGQLM 

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 

 

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR 

 

HURRICANE FELICIA   08E 

 

INITIAL TIME  12Z AUG  6 

 

DISCLAIMER ...  THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE.  IT 

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD 

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.  PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC 

OFFICIAL FORECAST. 

 

 

FORECAST STORM POSITION 

 

HOUR        LATITUDE        LONGITUDE        HEADING/SPEED(KT) 

 

   0            15.7            131.5           305./ 8.9 

   6            16.1            132.3           300./ 8.2 

  12            16.7            132.9           311./ 8.7 

  18            17.2            133.5           311./ 7.5 

  24            18.0            134.4           308./11.4 

  30            18.5            135.4           300./10.8 

  36            19.1            136.4           300./10.4 

  42            19.5            137.5           291./11.6 

  48            19.8            138.9           282./13.3 

  54            20.0            140.2           277./12.3 

  60            20.1            141.5           275./12.5 

  66            19.8            142.8           259./12.6 

  72            19.6            144.3           263./14.1 

  78            19.6            145.8           267./14.2 

  84            19.5            147.3           266./14.2 

  90            19.3            148.9           264./15.1 

  96            19.2            150.6           269./15.7 

 102            19.2            152.2           269./15.4 

 108            19.0            153.9           264./15.8 

 114            18.5            154.8           241./10.6 

 120            18.6            156.6           272./17.2 

 

STORM DISSIPATED AT 120 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.


[pojo]

Its a guy thing. There are hot linkable pictures of Lt. Colonel Madden on the internet, but I didn't feel like hotlinking them.

I respect my crews and their privacy.

[Ed Mahmoud]

.

Its a guy thing. There are hot linkable pictures of Lt. Colonel Madden on the internet, but I didn't feel like hotlinking them.

I respect my crews and their privacy.

Totally cool. Captain Mitchell and LTC Madden pics are on both af.mil and the TWC websites, it wasn't like I hunted down FaceBook pages or anything.

From TWC

[pojo]

.

Its a guy thing. There are hot linkable pictures of Lt. Colonel Madden on the internet, but I didn't feel like hotlinking them.

I respect my crews and their privacy.

Totally cool. Captain Mitchell and LTC Madden pics are on both af.mil and the TWC websites, it wasn't like I hunted down FaceBook pages or anything.

I'm fully aware of that... but I will repeat this again... I respect my crews & their privacy.... its called crew resource management & crew safety.

[Ed Mahmoud]

.

I'm not arguing with you. I asked one question, you mentioned OpSec, and I said cool. I have hotlinked a couple of TWC and USAFR publicity pictures, which, by their very nature (publicity pictures) I don't think are an intrusion on anyone's privacy.

I don't think we have a disagreement.

Anyhow, no more hotlinks.

[somethingfunny]

More to the point, Pojo, are you staying in Biloxi for this one?

[pojo]

.

I'm not arguing with you. I asked one question, you mentioned OpSec, and I said cool. I have hotlinked a couple of TWC and USAFR publicity pictures, which, by their very nature (publicity pictures) I don't think are an intrusion on anyone's privacy.

I don't think we have a disagreement.

I know they are publicity pictures and I understand what you are trying to get at... but as crews, we are ALL important in the planes. The crew doesn't just consist of Nicole and Warren.... this is why we are not fans of media flying with us because a majority of them only focus on one person and not the whole crew concept.

[pojo]

More to the point, Pojo, are you staying in Biloxi for this one?

yes.

[srainhoutx]

We thank you for your service pojo. Pass along our thanks to ALL the crew members for us. Thanks for keeping us informed as well.

[HURAKAN]

478
WHXX01 KMIA 061820
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1820 UTC THU AUG 6 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FELICIA (EP082009) 20090806 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090806 1800 090807 0600 090807 1800 090808 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.2N 132.3W 17.6N 134.1W 18.8N 136.0W 19.8N 138.3W
BAMD 16.2N 132.3W 17.1N 133.9W 17.8N 135.6W 18.4N 137.3W
BAMM 16.2N 132.3W 17.2N 134.0W 18.0N 135.7W 18.7N 137.5W
LBAR 16.2N 132.3W 17.4N 133.7W 18.4N 135.4W 19.2N 137.2W
SHIP 115KTS 101KTS 86KTS 76KTS
DSHP 115KTS 101KTS 86KTS 76KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090808 1800 090809 1800 090810 1800 090811 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.7N 140.9W 22.2N 146.6W 23.8N 152.4W 25.5N 157.1W
BAMD 18.8N 139.2W 19.3N 143.2W 19.7N 146.9W 19.5N 149.4W
BAMM 19.2N 139.6W 19.9N 144.1W 20.4N 148.6W 20.8N 152.1W
LBAR 19.6N 139.0W 19.6N 143.0W 19.5N 146.8W 19.7N 150.2W
SHIP 62KTS 41KTS 20KTS 0KTS
DSHP 62KTS 41KTS 20KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.2N LONCUR = 132.3W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 15.1N LONM12 = 130.8W DIRM12 = 307DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 14.2N LONM24 = 129.3W
WNDCUR = 115KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 125KT
CENPRS = 948MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 105NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 90NM

$$
NNNN

[Derek Ortt]

I am surprised that there is a deployment given the shear forecasts. based upon the shear, a 2006 Daniel seems more likely than a 1993 Fernanda