CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA (08E)

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Continues to look great

Looks Monstrous

[HURAKAN]

Still looking great

[pojo]

I am surprised that there is a deployment given the shear forecasts. based upon the shear, a 2006 Daniel seems more likely than a 1993 Fernanda

We are chomping at the bit to fly a storm.... the first storm deployment is always like this.

[Derek Ortt]

thats true

there is also a chance of a horrific forecast bust. That happened in 1992 with Iniki. Was supposed to stay well away from Hawaii. AF still deployed and it was a very good decision there as the forecasts were not even close to reality as Iniki leveled Kauai

[CrazyC83]

Iniki came up from the south though, where the water is warmer and can sustain a major hurricane much more easily.

[CourierPR]

Iniki came up from the south though, where the water is warmer and can sustain a major hurricane much more easily.

Good point, but better to err on the side of caution with a major hurricane so close to Hawaii.

[Sanibel]

TWC says TD into Hawaii.

[Ed Mahmoud]

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 062032
TCDEP3
HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
200 PM PDT THU AUG 06 2009

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A CLASSIC MAJOR HURRICANE WITH AN EYE
OF ABOUT 20 NM IN DIAMETER AND APPARENT MESOVORTICES ROTATING AROUND
THE CENTER. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A LITTLE BIT IN THE
EYEWALL...AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THIS
MORNING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 115 KT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RECENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.

A CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING OF THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY DUE TO
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS IN ITS PATH. THIS DECREASE IN STRENGTH
IS EXPECTED TO BE TEMPERED BY FELICIA HAVING SOME ANNULAR
HURRICANE CHARACTERISTICS. THIS ANNULAR STRUCTURE IN COMBINATION
WITH LOW WIND SHEAR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS COULD ENABLE THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY MORE THAN IT NORMALLY WOULD OVER
MARGINAL SSTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGHER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS...AND IS NOT TOO
DISSIMILAR TO THE HWRF MODEL. AT ABOUT THE TIME THAT FELICIA MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...GLOBAL MODELS INCREASE THE WIND SHEAR
SIGNIFICANTLY...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THE WEAKENING PROCESS EVEN
THOUGH WATER TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM WEST OF 140W. IN FACT...
ALL OF THE RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOW THE SYSTEM TO BE
EITHER A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR DISSIPATED AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL KEEP FELICIA AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...THOUGH THE STRONG SHEAR COULD
EVEN WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5.

THE HURRICANE REMAINS ON TRACK AND CONTINUES TO MOVE AT ABOUT 305/9.
THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC REASONING WITH THE GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGESTING THAT FELICIA WILL TURN MORE TO WEST-NORTHWEST
THEN WEST WITH TIME AS RIDGING BUILDS NORTHEAST OF HAWAII. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGHOUT 72 HOURS...AND LITTLE CHANGE
WAS MADE TO THE NHC FORECAST. THEREAFTER...SINCE FELICIA IS
FORECAST TO BE MUCH WEAKER AT LONG-RANGE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL ASSUME THAT THE THE SYSTEM WILL BE STEERED A LITTLE SOUTH OF
DUE WEST IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES. HOWEVER...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO
FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST POINTS AT DAYS 4 AND 5 BECAUSE THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AT THAT TIME FRAME.

AS A NOTE...FELICIA IS THE STRONGEST HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC SINCE HURRICANE DANIEL OF 2006.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/2100Z 16.4N 132.7W 115 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 17.2N 133.9W 105 KT
24HR VT 07/1800Z 18.3N 135.5W 95 KT
36HR VT 08/0600Z 19.2N 137.7W 80 KT
48HR VT 08/1800Z 19.7N 140.2W 70 KT
72HR VT 09/1800Z 20.0N 146.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 10/1800Z 19.7N 151.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 11/1800Z 19.5N 156.5W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

Looking excellent

[srainhoutx]

Close up VIS loop reveals a very Isabel looking cyclone. The mini meso vortex features in the eye are amazing.

[Macrocane]

Wow! I went on a trip since yesterday and I was unable to use Internet, I've just came home right now and I've found that Felicia was at her peak the strongest hurricane since Daniel, it's so bad that I couldn't see that But it is still a beautiful hurricane and I'm surpised that Enrique survived too.

[pojo]

If anyone is interested in the Hurricane Felicia deployment of the Hurricane Hunters... we have facebook page and our Mission commander is posting on the fly..... Go to our facebook page and click on discussions.

Way to go... drop OpSec out the droptube.

[I-wall]

Still looking good. The eye is still perfectly symmetrical. I dont think it is weakening much.....still holding strong.

[Derek Ortt]

it should not weaken all that much until it encounters the shear

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best track mantains at 115kts.

EP, 08, 2009080700, , BEST, 0, 167N, 1332W, 115, 948, HU

[Derek Ortt]

and I wish SHIPS did not start this trend of backing off on the timing of the onset of the shear

[CrazyC83]

07/0000 UTC 16.7N 133.1W T6.0/6.0 FELICIA -- East Pacific

Still supports 115 kt. Although the ADT is lower, so I would bump it down to 110 kt personally.

[HURAKAN]

Powerful Felicia

[HURAKAN]

Felicia and its satellite

[cycloneye]

115kts


WTPZ43 KNHC 070244
TCDEP3
HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
800 PM PDT THU AUG 06 2009

FELICIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS....WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS COLDER
THAN -70C IN SOME AREAS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 115 KT
FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
ADVISORY. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND
FAIR ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10. FELICIA IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WITH A LARGE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
DOMINATING THE AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 23N153W. THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FORECAST THE LOW TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN...
CAUSING A BREAK IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF HAWAII AND A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE MOST
LIKELY RESULT OF THIS EVOLUTION IS THAT AFTER 48 HR THE MID/UPPER-
LEVEL CIRCULATION OF FELICIA WOULD HAVE ITS WESTWARD MOTION
BLOCKED...WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS PUSHES THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER WESTWARD. THIS WOULD CAUSE FELICIA TO SHEAR APART AND THE
REMAINING LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD. THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...
ALTHOUGH WITH SOME SPREAD. THE GLOBAL MODELS...GFS...NOGAPS...
UKMET...AND ECMWF...ARE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...WHILE THE HIGH-RESOLUTION HURRICANE MODELS...GFDL...
HWRF...AND GFDN...ARE ON THE LEFT SIDE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWARD
MOTION AFTER 72 HR OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS.
THE TRACK IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FELICIA IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HR OR SO. DURING THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. BETWEEN 48-72 HR...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE AS FELICIA ENCOUNTERS THE WEATHER SYSTEMS DESCRIBED ABOVE
AND ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW
THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF FELICIA DISSIPATING AS THIS
HAPPENS...WHICH OCCURS EVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK MOVES THE
CYCLONE OVER WARMER SSTS DURING THAT TIME. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND CALLS FOR FELICIA TO CONTINUE WEAKENING
AFTER 48 HR. WARMER SSTS AND LESS-HOSTILE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND IF FELICIA MOVES
TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK THE AFTER-48 HR WEAKENING COULD
BE SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0300Z 16.9N 133.6W 115 KT
12HR VT 07/1200Z 17.8N 134.9W 105 KT
24HR VT 08/0000Z 18.7N 136.6W 90 KT
36HR VT 08/1200Z 19.4N 138.9W 75 KT
48HR VT 09/0000Z 19.8N 141.5W 65 KT
72HR VT 10/0000Z 20.0N 147.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 11/0000Z 19.5N 152.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 12/0000Z 19.0N 157.5W 25 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN