Disturbance In Eastern Caribbean.

[Gustywind]

Wayne Verno, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 6, 2009 9:38 am ET
A couple of weak tropical waves were moving west across the Atlantic tropical basin, but they were mostly void of any shower or thunderstorm activity. The Atlantic basin is forecast to remain quiet through the weekend.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The Gulf may be less hostile than other parts of the basin, but my unofficial and amateur opinion, based on everything I see, the only possible Gulf threat would be Louisiana and points East from an Andrew or Betsy type El Nino storm that hit Florida first.


I think Florida to Hatteras, and maybe the TWC "It Could Happen Tommorow" /Joe Bastardi type scenario of a New York/New England weakening and transitioning to extra-tropical but still powerful / major hurricane heading NNW just West of Delaware Bay and pushing a massive surge into Philadelphia is a tad less super-unlikely than usual.

I was in the airport in Philadelphia once flying back to Orlando on Allegheny, or maybe Piedmont, from either my late Grandmother's place in Massachusetts or my brother's wedding in Passaic. I'm not sure which.


For that matter, I was in the airport in Charlotte, NC, with snow on the ground, and I can't remember for sure now whether it was Piedmont or Allegheny Airlines. By then, I think Allegheny might have been renamed USAir. Or maybe it was Piedmont that was renamed.

Alaska is another state, been to the airport in Anchorage, but never left the airport. Headed from LAX to NAS Cubi Point, RP. Flying Tigers 747. Thought they just flew cargo. Wrong. Inflight movie" "The Natural" with Robert Redford.

Been to the airport in San Juan when I was 8 and we were going to Curacoa. My late Dad was a flight dispatcher at American, worked with Harold Taft at DAL in the 1950s, and the nuns from Saint Martins in Amityville assigned homework for us so we could miss a week of school in February for a Caribbean adventure, flying "non-rev".


OK, back on topic. URL in a URL box, so it opens a new window:
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_float2_0.html

Surface wise, following low clouds, looks like a generally East-West oriented trough line, not anything resembling either a tropical wave, usually sort of N-S oriented, or a closed low.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Little pop of convection to the S of the main blob, let's see if it persists.

Just wanted to move the satellite loop to the new page.

[wxman57]

Not much there on visible imagery. No circulation indicated in satellite loop or surface obs. Pressures a bit high in the region, though, as evident by the buoy to the west of the cluster of storms (1015.4mb):

[floridasun78]

but it fighter

[Sanibel]

I think there's just a wisp of a surface circulation near 38W there but nothing worth mentioning considering the mid-Atlantic dry airmass is dipping down in front of it which should doom it.


Nice tropical small drop downpour here off the Gulf from the south. A sure sign of things warming up. Wicked drought here up to now because the Gulf wasn't supporting convection.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Lets see how Son of Contador deals with desert dry air ahead...



Shear isn't exactly its friend, either...

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 061709
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU AUG 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. NO CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
WAVE POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY. THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY
UNDER A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG
THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 63W-67W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THIS WAVE LIES IN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS WAVE IS UNDER A
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 77W-83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO FROM
17N-23N BETWEEN 77W-82W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 10N23W 12N35W 9N46W 7N55W
9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
9N-14N BETWEEN 16W-24W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
13N-15N BETWEEN 33W-35W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 16N37W TO 8N42W.SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 39W-43W...ENHANCED BY THE SURFACE TROUGH.$$
WALTON

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 061735
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN

M. Ressler, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 6, 2009 1:33 pm ET

A couple of weak tropical waves were moving west across the Atlantic tropical basin, but they were mostly void of any concentrated shower or thunderstorm activity. The Atlantic basin is forecast to remain quiet through the weekend.

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurri ... om=hp_news

[floridasun78]

maybe we see something next few weeks

[Dean4Storms]

Too much dry air, too much shear, too much of nothing but clear skies in the Tropics!

[tolakram]

Next 'wave' rolling off Africa now, looks to be a good deal further north than the previous waves.

[Sanibel]

I always have to remind myself how silly I would look if I opined the lack of favorable conditions and then had a whopper come and level my house shortly after.


Methinks as long as that "perma-trough" is over north Florida the negative conditions are still present.

[Blown Away]

Convection popping rate over the area I thought I saw what appeared to be a circulation but was likely just a weak vortex.

[gatorcane]

Looking at the latest CIMSS wind shear analysis looks like this area will get crushed as soon as it moves west of 60W. Wind shear is screaming at around 30-40K across the entire Caribbean. Of course I doubt anything will be left by then anyway as dry air should eventually get it.

Simply put the Atlantic Basin is officially DEAD and based on long-range models could be dead for a couple of more weeks. I'm still thinking something significant will form in the Atlantic Basin the last week of August (Aug 20-something).

[Blown Away]

Looking at the latest CIMSS wind shear analysis looks like this area will get crushed as soon as it moves west of 60W. Wind shear is screaming at around 30-40K across the entire Caribbean. Of course I doubt anything will be left by then anyway as dry air should eventually get it.

Simply put the Atlantic Basin is officially DEAD and based on long-range models could be dead for a couple of more weeks. I'm still thinking something significant will form in the Atlantic Basin the last week of August (Aug 20-something).

IMO, and I know I'm the only one on this boat, I saw a weak circulation or vortex near that ball of convection this afternoon. This wave will be moving below that strong shear for at least another 36 hours and if it can continue to pulse maybe we can get some organization. IMO only, I don't put alot of stock in shear maps after 48 hours so things can change. This wave is predicted to move in the general direction of the NE Caribbean. Do I think this will become Ana, probably not but I continue to follow this wave as long as it maintains convection.

[cycloneye]

The forecast is for a rainy late monday thru tuesday here in PR.

[Sanibel]

Those cells are popping west of the vortex. That could be a sign of it getting its feet into favorability. Crazy as it seems this could re-fire further west still. The tiny center burst is still hanging on despite the conditions around it:

[Stormcenter]

It's the conditions ahead of it that will eventually spell it's doom.

Those cells are popping west of the vortex. That could be a sign of it getting its feet into favorability. Crazy as it seems this could re-fire further west still. The tiny center burst is still hanging on despite the conditions around it:

[Blown Away]

Wow, convection really popping now! Looks to be moving WNW instead of due W. The TAFB now has a low attached w/ this wave moving in the general area of the NE Caribbean in 72 hours. Shear will not be that bad over the next couple days.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif