WPAC: TD GONI (0907/08W/PAGASA: JOLINA)

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (GONI) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 21.8N 113.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 113.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 22.1N 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 22.3N 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 21.9N 112.8E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TS 08W IS MAKING LANDFALL WEST OF HONG
KONG. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SLOWLY INLAND, WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND WILL
DISSIPATE BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS
13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 09W (MORAKOT) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 921
WTPQ21 RJTD 041800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0907 GONI (0907)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041800UTC 21.8N 112.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 051800UTC 22.2N 111.0E 70NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[HURAKAN]

This little guy never stopped getting better organized

[wxmann_91]

^Not surprising, actually. Limited interaction with land convectively boosts weak TC's, helping them intensify as long as they aren't too far inland.

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 409
WTPQ21 RJTD 050000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0907 GONI (0907)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050000UTC 21.9N 112.3E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 060000UTC 22.0N 110.7E 70NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (GONI) WARNING NR 010
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 08W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 21.9N 112.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9N 112.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 22.1N 111.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 22.3N 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 22.0N 112.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 95 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TD
08W HAS MOVED OVER LAND IN THE LAST 3 HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY TRACK INLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIMITED COASTAL
OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE TRACK WILL REMAIN OVER LAND AND WILL
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 09W (MORAKOT) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Inland but still looking good

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 329
WTPQ21 RJTD 050900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0907 GONI (0907)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050900UTC 22.0N 112.1E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 060900UTC 21.9N 111.5E 70NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Weakening over land

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 104
WTPQ21 RJTD 061200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 0907 GONI (0907)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061200UTC 21N 110E
MOVE SW 10KT
PRES 990HPA =
NNNN

[Cookie]

this is causeing a lot bother due to flooding

[HURAKAN]

Goni still fighting

[HURAKAN]

07/0830 UTC 20.0N 109.0E T3.0/3.0 GONI -- West Pacific

It's back!

[HURAKAN]

ABPW10 PGTW 070600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/070600Z-080600ZAUG2009//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061951ZAUG2009//
REF/B/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/062351ZAUG2009//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
/CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 070000Z, TYPHOON 09W (MORAKOT) WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N
123.1E, APPROXIMATELY 105 NM SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI TAIWAN, AND HAD
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS AND MAINTAINED AN INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS GUSTING TO 100 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW
062100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 140.5E,
IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. SEE REF B
(WTPN21 PGTW 070000) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 21.0N 109.1E, APPROXIMATELY
130 NM NORTH OF HAINAN ISLAND, CHINA, HAS PERSISTED AND REMAINED
QUASI-STATIONARY. THIS AREA IS THE REMNANTS OF 08W THAT HAS RECENTLY
MOVED OFF SHORE. DEEP CONVECTION IS FIRING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
WITH FORMATIVE BANDING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ANTICYLONE
LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS AIDING WITH EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM IS ALSO IN A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 990 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//
NNNN

[brunota2003]

Goni trying to come back?

[HURAKAN]

About to make landfall again

[HURAKAN]

QUITE IMPRESSIVE!



WTPN31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (GONI) WARNING NR 011
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 19.6N 108.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 108.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 18.7N 108.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.0N 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.8N 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 18.4N 111.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 20.5N 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.9N 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 25.5N 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 19.4N 108.2E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM
NORTHWEST OF HAINAN ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED BACK OVER WATER, AND
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN RE-STARTED. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 071338Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED 30 TO 35 KNOTS NEAR THE LLCC.
THE CURRENT TRACK IS BASED ON DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATING THE LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 24. AS TS 08W MOVES SOUTH, THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL SHIFT THE TRACK IN AN EASTWARD DIRECTION BEYOND TAU 24.
INCREASED DEVELOPMENT FROM TAU 36 TO TAU 72 WILL ALLOW A DEVELOPING
MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF TS 08W TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING
INFLUENCE CAUSING THE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD CURVATURE AT TAU 48. AS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD, IT WILL CAUSE TS 08W TO SHIFT TO A
NORTHWARD TRACK BEYOND TAU 72, MAKING LANDFALL WEST OF HONG KONG
AROUND 110600Z. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THERE WILL ONLY
BE WEAK DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS OUTFLOW FROM TS
09W WILL STIFLE THE OUTFLOW FROM TS 08W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z,
081500Z AND 082100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (MORAKOT) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Goni is back!

[HURAKAN]

JMA:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 992 HPA AT 20N 109E SOUTH SLOWLY.

[HURAKAN]

Fighting to the end