Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 061505
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1105 AM AST THU AUG 6 2009

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS WERE DETECTED OVER
LAND AREAS. HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE
REPORTED. THE WIND WAS MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 15 MPH.

GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING AN APPROACHING
TROPICAL WAVE...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS
AND SURROUNDING WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES.

$$

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 061432
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1032 AM AST THU AUG 6 2009

.UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
SHIFT HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON ONGOING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS AT TJMZ
AND TJBQ WITH VCTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FROM 17Z TO 23Z.
ELSEWHERE SOME PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.


&&

[Gustywind]

The tropical wave along the 61W is moving across the islands without significant showers (Guadeloupe/Martinica forecast) and the Northern Leewards PR... while on the extreme east of the sat pic, a small tropical disturbance can be seen accompanied with a 1012 mb near the 40W.

[Gustywind]

No more changes on the Atlantic ocean...pretty quiet except the the small tropical disturbance mentionned in my previous post.

M. Ressler, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 6, 2009 1:33 pm ET
A couple of weak tropical waves were moving west across the Atlantic tropical basin, but they were mostly void of any concentrated shower or thunderstorm activity. The Atlantic basin is forecast to remain quiet through the weekend.
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/


000
ABNT20 KNHC 061735
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 10N23W 12N35W 9N46W 7N55W
9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
9N-14N BETWEEN 16W-24W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
13N-15N BETWEEN 33W-35W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE
ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 16N37W TO 8N42W.SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 39W-43W...ENHANCED BY
THE SURFACE TROUGH.


000
AXNT20 KNHC 061709
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU AUG 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. NO CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
WAVE POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY. THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY
UNDER A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG
THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 63W-67W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THIS WAVE LIES IN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS WAVE IS UNDER A
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 77W-83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO FROM
17N-23N BETWEEN 77W-82W.
...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 10N23W 12N35W 9N46W 7N55W
9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
9N-14N BETWEEN 16W-24W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
13N-15N BETWEEN 33W-35W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE
ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 16N37W TO 8N42W.SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 39W-43W...ENHANCED BY
THE SURFACE TROUGH.
$$
WALTON

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST THU AUG 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
JUST EAST OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS TONIGHT GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTHWEST INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

SUBSIDENCE ON FRONT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WAS THE LIMITING WEATHER FACTOR
THIS AFTERNOON AS A DRIER AIRMASS PREVAILED OVER THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HELP INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT...THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH A FEW AFFECTING THE USVI
AND THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A ,ORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE LOCAL AREA BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO GENERATE
TYPICAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...A LOW LEVEL TUTT
REFLECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...GENERATING A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE ON SHOWERS COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS TJBQ UNTIL 06/2300Z. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REST OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES DURING THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...LOWERED THE WAVE HEIGHTS AS WINDS ARE NOT AST STRONG AS
FORECASTED THEREFORE SEAS WILL REMAIN UP TO 6 FEET FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
938 PM AST THU AUG 6 2009

.UPDATE...TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS JUST
SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
REACHING THE PARTS OF U.S.V.I AND SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO BY EARLY
MORNING. EARLIER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SAL AND ACCOMPANYING
SAHARAN DUST QUICKLY APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES TRAILING THE
TROPICAL WAVE. THIS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A DRIER AND
STABLE LOCAL AIR MASS. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED TUTT LOW
SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARDS WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LIFTING ITCZ MOISTURE WELL UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST AND HIGH
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION BOTH NAM12 AND GFS MODEL STILL SUGGEST WIND
SURGE/ENHANCED AEJ TRAILING WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR BREEZIER CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH 850-700MB SHOWING MAX AROUND 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS. WITH THAT SAID...MADE NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST WHICH HAD A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON PRESENT CONDITIONS AND
SHORT TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 18 HOURS. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY ONE OR TWO ISOLD BUT STRONG TSTMS ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BE FOCUSED MAINLY IN AND AROUND TJBQ...AND OVER THE TJMZ
TAF SITE. OTHERWISE...ONLY PASSING SHRA...AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES AND ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA.

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 070210
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1010 PM AST THU AUG 6 2009

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
NEARLY NO SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE LOCAL AREA. THE WIND WAS MAINLY
FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME...HOWEVER NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. DRY AND HAZY AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY...AND REMAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND
SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS AND
THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES.

$$

[Gustywind]

Always quiet...in the Atlantic :darrow:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 062332
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



Numerous high clouds with scattered showers are doting the Lesser Antilles. Dry air and subsidence in bonus track for the islands too . Looking always to our east... no threat as the waves are void of solid convection :spam:



Nothing to kill a cat or a dog :ggreen:


Another big cluster on Africa can be seen on the last frame...not sure that conditions should allow a decent thing... wait and see after it will emerge



000
AXNT20 KNHC 062350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU AUG 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 13 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 30W-34W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 18 KT. THIS
WAVE REMAINS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST
INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. HOWEVER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 46W-50W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM THAT STRETCHES
NWD INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR 23N67W. INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVE AND UPPER
LEVEL LOW ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN 60W-70W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE LIES IN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS WAVE CONTINUES MOVING
BENEATH A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N AND ACROSS PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA. ALSO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 80W-89W...INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF WRN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N16W 11N21W 13N31W 13N34W
12N40W 10N43W 8N48W 7N50W AND INTO NRN SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N55W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 13W-24W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ THAT
EXTENDS FROM 16N39W TO 9N42W. THIS CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM
11N-15N BETWEEN 39W-45W.
$$
HUFFMAN

Have a good night to all especially for a man, maybe shy today MR SUPERMAN = CYCLONEYE el talento de la casa . As usual good job Luis, i will continue to help you by posting as possible and all the carib friends. Whereas my friends are you shy??? If possible don't forget to post any infos about the weather in your island, i know that the season has slow debuts but you can post the TWO or the TWD, etc... too, it' a carib family don't forget it WE'RE THE BEST WHEN WE'RE LINKED . So congratulations everbody!
I'm dreaming about a bed and Morpheus is coming in my B...........ed

Here is our SUPERMAN= CYCLONEYE

[Gustywind]

Here is the cluster on Africa



No more changes for the twave activity
James Wilson, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 6, 2009 9:07 pm ET

A couple of weak tropical waves were moving west across the Atlantic tropical basin, but they were mostly void of any concentrated shower or thunderstorm activity. The Atlantic basin is forecast to remain quiet through the weekend.

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

[Gustywind]

Good morning to all the Caribbean friends . HAZY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A SAHARAN AIR LAYER is in store this weekend. Pretty interresting last paragrah about the hurricane season...

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 070841 CCB
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
440 AM AST FRI AUG 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW N OF PR WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN TODAY AND HOLD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS.
SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND WITH HAZE AND DUST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MAIN STORY THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE HAZY CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SAHARAN AIR LAYER. LATEST TPW IMAGERY SHOWS VERY
DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM THE EAST WITH SAL
LYR EXPECTED TO TAKE FULL CONTROL OF PR/USVI OVER THE WEEKEND. IN
ADDITION...STRENGHTENING MID-LVL CAP ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING MID-
UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL PUT A STRONG LID ON CONVECTION OVER THE
ISLANDS TODAY AND TOMORROW. HAVING A REALLY HARD TIME SEEING ANY
CONVECTION TODAY AS DRY AIR ADVECTION IS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT AND
CAP IS FCST TO DROP TO NEAR 800 MB. NO MORE THAN AN ISOLD SHRA IF
ANY IS EXPECTED AND MAINLY OVR THE MAYAGUEZ AREA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR SAT.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS MAINLY S OF PR/USVI ON SUN WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. WEAKENING CAP SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SCT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVLOP OVR THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

TROP ATLC CONTINUES TO REMAIN VERY QUIET WITH NO THREAT AREAS TO
DISCUSS. LATEST 200 MB VELOCITY ANOMALIES FROM THE 06/00Z RUN
FROM THE GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE TROP ATLC THROUGH AUGUST 20 AND WITH CLIMATOLOGY INDICATING
THAT SAL EVENTS DO NOT DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL THE LAST WEEK
OF AUGUST WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO WAIT ANOTHER COUPLE OF WEEKS
BEFORE THINGS CAN GET MORE EXCITING ACROSS THE TROP ATLC.
&&

.AVIATION...HAZE WITH 6-8SM VSBYS AND 20-KT GUSTS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERN TODAY. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR SAT. SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST
COAST.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FT AND WINDS UP TO 20 KT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HAZE IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH VSBYS 5-8SM.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 89 79 / 10 10 20 30
STT 90 81 91 79 / 10 10 30 40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

17/64

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 070910
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
510 AM AST FRI AUG 7 2009

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. WEATHER DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED NEARLY NO SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE WIND WAS MAINLY FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.

DRY AND HAZY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY...AND REMAIN
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THEREFORE...EXPECT HAZY CONDITIONS AND
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AT LEAST THROUGH
SUNDAY. WIND WILL BE FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT LEAST
THROUGH SATURDAY.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND
SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES.

$$

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all the Caribbean friends.Hazy weekend is the story.Yes,that paragraph says why ther Atlantic continues to be quiet.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 071044
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 07 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W TO THE SOUTH OF
17N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS
FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 34W AND 38W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W TO THE SOUTH
OF 15N MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KT. NEARBY ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE INTO NORTHWESTERN COASTAL
VENEZUELA...MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE AREA THAT ALREADY IS COVERED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHOSE BASE REACHES NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA...AND THE BASE OF
A DIFFERENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT REACHES THE EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION JUST ACCOMPANIES ONLY THE TROPICAL WAVE.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W FROM THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL SOUTHWARD INTO NICARAGUA...MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT
15 KT. IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION THAT JUST ACCOMPANIES ONLY THE TROPICAL WAVE.
SOME PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 15N38W 11N56W. WHAT APPEARS
TO BE A SECOND ITCZ...AND/OR A SECOND OF LINE OF SURFACE
CONFLUENT WIND FLOW...IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FIRST ONE ALONG
10N14W 9N23W 7N34W 7N41W 7N50W 6N56W. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE
THAT THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES FROM YESTERDAY CLEARLY
SHOW THAT THE WIND FLOW FROM THE EQUATOR NORTHWARD BLOWS RIGHT
PAST THE 10N14W 6N56W LINE TOWARD THE 11N15W 11N56W LINE...GIVING
THE IMPRESSION THAT THE NORTHERN-MORE LINE IS THE ITCZ. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN CLUSTERS FROM 10N TO 13N
BETWEEN 44W AND 57W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 48W AND 53W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 44W.
STRONG SHOWERSAND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF AFRICA FROM
13N TO 17N...POSSIBLY/PROBABLY WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE.
$$
MT

[Gustywind]

Good morning to all the Caribbean friends.Hazy weekend is the story.Yes,that paragraph says why ther Atlantic continues to be quiet.

Hi Superman excuse Luis , good morning to you, absolutely...things continue to be very quiet with a very very low start of this hurricane season.

[Gustywind]

A mix of dry and scattered showers is expected on much of the Lesser Antilles. Some ITCZ action as STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN CLUSTERS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 44W AND 57W.



Looking at Africa





Here is maybe the next guest...given the last weather forecast of the NHC...STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF AFRICA FROM13N TO 17N...POSSIBLY/PROBABLY WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE.

[Gustywind]

Hey Cycloneye and the others carib friends, here are some webcams from St Marteen That could be very interresting for some observations in live. Enjoy !

1) The Airport of Gustave 3 : Link : http://pagesperso-orange.fr/sbh1/webcam.html


2) Weather in St Barth. Link: http://www.st-barth.info/


3) Weather in St Barth. Link: http://pagesperso-orange.fr/sitealterna ... mpsbh.html



Be careful... given my untrained eyes the link number 2 and 3 don't seem updated (date) while link 1 seems OK.
Gustywind

[cycloneye]

The web cams are posted at the first post of thread to make it easy for all to find them.

[Gustywind]

The web cams are posted at the first post of thread to make it easy for all to find them.

Ok that's great tkanks

[Gustywind]

The strong showers and tstorms embedded in the ITCZ continue to pop nicely :darrow:

[msbee]

Gusty
those web cams you posted actually are from St Barth's, not St. Maarten, although St. Barth's is just a hop, skip and a jump away from us.

Luis, I was wondering, is there any way to make the web cam links a sticky at the top of every new page.
I am not sure people will remember to go look at the first page.
what do you think?
I also have a few mroe st maarten cams, if you are interested.
Barbara