To those who think I always agree with Joe Bastardi...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Thursday, 5 pm "Watch the Gulf".


And I watch, and say, NOPE.



Florida loop



Based on the location of the disorganized and amorphous blob, I'd expect West winds in the Keys- Nope.


Nothing in the models.


I think even JB is getting affected by the slow Atlantic season. But, the Canadian likes something for Puerto Rico next week (I was checking the models to make sure no surface low is prog'd to form in the GOMEX), and who knows

[Blown Away]

Maybe the Canadian is picking up the Central Atlantic wave? Ok, you only agree w/ him most of the time! He definitely is a sharp guy and right or wrong he tells you what he is thinking and I respect him for that.

[srainhoutx]

Here's what the HPC has to say this morning...snipet...

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
442 AM EDT FRI AUG 07 2009

VALID 12Z FRI AUG 07 2009 - 00Z SUN AUG 09 2009


ACROSS THE SOUTH... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG
THE GULF COAST... REACHING WESTERN LOUISIANA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH... THIS DISTURBANCE MAY AID
IN PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... IN ADDITION TO THE TYPICAL DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH
THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... v_loop.php

[Ed Mahmoud]

He doesn't want to surrender too early, and I do feel sympathy for people who work forecasting Atlantic cyclones in a down season. Although maybe I shouldn't. The forum has a local pro-met who loses out on weekend and vacation time whenever NHC classifies anything.

Speaking of over doing it, while some north winds are showing up in the eastern Gulf, my system has failed to increase. However, the Memorial Day system laid down until late in the game, so I will wait till later today before fully judging what could be my over zealousness in bringing this up. I would rather get caught swinging than looking, since the period Aug. 10-25 should bring some life to the tropics, and we are approaching that.

[TexWx]

I'm watching a little west of the Tex/Mx border....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir4.html

[Flyinman]

For what it's worth, the latest surface observation has a small wave on it:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

Reminds me just a little bit of Humberto. Not a mention of anything until 10:00 pm that we need to watch out.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I wouldn't complain about a tropical storm hitting Louisiana as long as it moved through here as well and dropped some needed rain.



Obviously, not talking some frog-strangling slow moving Fay or Allison type tropical storm.


More like Edouard, which helped a little during what was a very dry Summer for my yard last year.

[Jagno]

I wouldn't complain about a tropical storm hitting Louisiana as long as it moved through here as well and dropped some needed rain.



Obviously, not talking some frog-strangling slow moving Fay or Allison type tropical storm.


More like Edouard, which helped a little during what was a very dry Summer for my yard last year.

Excuse me but we don't need the rain but thank you for your kind thoughts. I WOULD complain about anything tropical hitting Louisiana. I'm darn tired of wind, rain, tornadoes and rebuilding.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

A piece of trough that broke of about 40 miles W of tampa maybe? But that thing will probably be gone soon. JB is vague and states the obvous. Anyone can do that.

example

"IN AUGUST WE NEED TO WATCH THE ATLANTIC"

Cape Verde storm forms

"See I told you so"

[jinftl]

Thank you...a voice of reason

A piece of trough that broke of about 40 miles W of tampa maybe? But that thing will probably be gone soon. JB is vague and states the obvous. Anyone can do that.

example

"IN AUGUST WE NEED TO WATCH THE ATLANTIC"

Cape Verde storm forms

"See I told you so"

[SETXWXLADY]

I wouldn't complain about a tropical storm hitting Louisiana as long as it moved through here as well and dropped some needed rain.



Obviously, not talking some frog-strangling slow moving Fay or Allison type tropical storm.


More like Edouard, which helped a little during what was a very dry Summer for my yard last year.

Excuse me but we don't need the rain but thank you for your kind thoughts. I WOULD complain about anything tropical hitting Louisiana. I'm darn tired of wind, rain, tornadoes and rebuilding.

Ditto! From your neighbor just across the way. All Ike did last year was push enough salt water inland to kill everything. Then for months, after the crops failed, we didn't have enough rain to flush the salt water back out. Doesn't always mean relief.

[Sanibel]

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