Disturbance In Eastern Caribbean.

[Ed Mahmoud]

It is the Canadian...


Puerto Rico Tropical Depression Downpours!

[Blown Away]

1. Convection building today.
2. Model support (Canadian).
3. Shear not to bad on Canadian track.
4. SST's good.
5. TAFB tagged a low w/ this area.
6. Long shot, I always like the persistent underdog!

[HURAKAN]

You know things are really bad when this is the best shot for development in the near future.

[wxman57]

Here's a morning analysis of the disturbance. As you can see, there is no closed low, regardless of what some agency might put on its map. It's just a low-latitude tropical wave. Pressures are relatively high in the region. The Canadian model, by the way, isn't forecasting THIS disturbance to develop, it's focusing on the wave behind it near 9N/48W.



There are several walls of shear in its path. The first is the shear associated with the upper trof across the eastern Caribbean. It'll hit that shear later today.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

The second wall of death it'll face is tremendous 850mb winds across much of the Caribbean Sea forecast for this weekend:


Bottom line is that chances of tropical development over the next 5 days is extremely low, maybe 1-2%. I'm afraid I'll have to push back my August 8th date of Ana to closer to the 16-20 of August.

[Blown Away]

I was referring to the convection blob near 9N/48W, I've been watching that like a crazy fool for the past few days. If this area follows the Canadian track the shear is at least not sure death as it is in the Caribbean. The unamed agency tagged the low on Wed, removed it on Thurs, and put it back on today. Thanks Wxmann!!

[Ed Mahmoud]

WxMan57

It depends which part of the long line of storms you call the wave.

I'm talking the back end at 45º

Canadian time- about right now...



About 7 am, but close enough for govt. work...

[floridasun78]

wxman57 is bad news bear for system i bet you donot see any system to form. i see you but all wave down no change untill now untill day you forcast you going see ana form

[Blown Away]

I agree w/ you Ed, if there is any kind of circulation/vortex it's on the E side of the convection which puts it near 45W.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Little pop of convection to the S of the main blob, let's see if it persists.

Just wanted to move the satellite loop to the new page.

[Blown Away]

Little WNW movement in the last few frames.

[Sanibel]

I think the wave is linear because the unfavorable Atlantic airmass is pushing it down against the ITCZ. It's interesting because even in this hopeless atmosphere the wave is showing signs of energy as the season starts to ramp up in climatology. Whether that weak center can pull that arm of convection off to its west into itself is the question. So far the chances are against it.

The waves over Africa and exiting the coast are badly dried out.

[Gustywind]

[Stormcenter]

Right now this nothing more then a disorganized mess of storms that is being suppressed southward. Move along nothing here to see at the moment.

[wxman57]

A modified version of that 850mb wind chart. The Caribbean eagerly awaits this disturbance:

[Ed Mahmoud]

A modified version of that 850mb wind chart. The Caribbean eagerly awaits this disturbance:

Holy Zenyatta Mondata!


(Not the actual thing I was thinking of, but close enough)

[Sanibel]

There's a very weak surface spiral near 13-47 but it looks like it is quitting:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

[wxman57]

Here's an 18Z analysis with surface plots. Pressure relatively high in the region. Wave axis around 47.5W now. I can't see any evidence of rotation on visible imagery. MIMIC shows a tiny bit of rotation aloft. Surface obs suggest wave.

[Sanibel]

Kirk, I'm detecting activity on my monitor:

[Sanibel]

Center burst over spiral?

[Blown Away]

IMO, if there is any circulation it is near that ball of convection near 13N 47W.